Monthly Archives: September 2012

Issued at 3:50 PM CDT, Saturday, September 29th, 2012

Weather Tidbits:

*80s in portions of Minnesota Today.  Here are some temperatures from 3 PM Today:  Fosston 88F; Morris 84F; St. Cloud 84F; Fergus Falls 84F; Hallock 84F; Roseau 82F; Mankato 82F.

*45 Counties in Minnesota are in severe or extreme drought as of September 25th.  (Paul Douglas St Cloud Times)

*77% of Minnesota is in moderate drought as of September 25th, this is up from just 13% three months ago. (Paul Douglas St. Cloud Times)

*More than 35% of Minnesota is in severe or extreme drought this week.  This is the largest total since Fall of 2006.  Only Cook County in Northeast Minnesota wasn’t in any kind of drought or abnormally dry conditions this week.  (Paul Douglas St Cloud Times)

Today’s Weather Summary for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

The marine layer increased Today resulting in cool temperatures closer to Lake Superior where highs were in the 50s to around 60 degrees.  Farther away from Lake Superior it was another gorgeous autumn day with very warm temperatures with highs in the 70s to around 80 degrees.  Skies were mainly sunny Today, but there has been an area of low clouds and fog around the Bayfield Peninsula and in Northern Ashland County in Northwest Wisconsin.  Winds were out of the north or east at 5 to 15 mph.

Today’s Upper Level Analysis:

An upper low is moving through the Eastern Great Lakes with another disturbance lifting northeast out of Eastern Montana per water vapor satellite imagery.  850mb temperatures as of 3 PM ranged from +10 to +16C across Minnesota.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Tonight (September 29th)

Clear-partly cloudy skies will continue with patchy low clouds/fog possible at times near Lake Superior.  Lows will be in the 30s and 40s with north or east winds at 5 to 15 mph.

Sunday and Sunday Night (September 30th)

The month of September will end on a mild note if you’re away from Lake Superior.  Sunny to partly cloudy skies are forecast Tomorrow with partly to mostly cloudy skies for Sunday Night.  A cold front will move east out of the Dakotas and into/through most of Minnesota Sunday Night.  There really won’t be much moisture to meet up with the approaching cold front, but a few rain showers may still develop Sunday Night in Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin.  Highs on Sunday will range from the 50s and 60s near Lake Superior to the 70s and maybe even a few 80s for the remainder of the Northland.  Lows Sunday Night will be in the 40s to lower 50s.  East or southeast winds at 10 to 20 mph are expected on Sunday with north, south, or east winds Sunday Night at 5 to 15 mph.

*Rainfall forecast for Sunday Night-Monday per HPC.  Looks like any rain that we get in Minnesota and Western Wisconsin won’t amount to much more than a trace to around 0.05″.

Extended Forecast, Monday through Wednesday (October 1st-3rd)

A few showers are possible in our area on Monday as a cold front continues to move E-SE through the Upper Midwest.  It dries out Monday Night into Tuesday, and then another chance for showers enters the picture for Tuesday Night and Wednesday as a cold front heads into Minnesota.  High temperatures on Monday and Tuesday will be in the 60s with a few 70s even possible on Tuesday.  Lows Monday Night and Tuesday Night will mainly be in the 40s.  High temperatures on Wednesday will be in the 50s to lower 60s.

Long Range Forecast (October 4th-9th)

The pattern which gave the Northland cold temperatures and to some the season’s 1st measurable snowfall back on September 21st-22nd looks to return through this period as a N/NW flow tightens it’s grip over the Upper Midwest, Great Lakes, and Central Canada.  Unfortunately with this type of pattern, the prospects for a widespread/significant precipitation event are on the low side since the Gulf Of Mexico will be cut-off.  Instead will probably see a few systems drop SE out of Canada, and those disturbances could bring some snow and or rain showers to our area at times from the 4th-9th along with below average temperatures the way it looks now.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR

.Tonight…  Mostly clear.  Patchy fog possible late.  Low 37 to 42.  Wind east at 5 to 15 mph.

.Sunday…  Patchy fog possible early.  Mostly sunny.  High 64 to 69 but cooler near Lake Superior.  Wind east at 10 to 20 mph.

.Sunday Night…  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Showers possible after Midnight.  Low 43 to 48.  Wind southeast at 5 to 15 mph becoming north.

.Monday…  Showers possible during the Morning.  Partly sunny.  High 63 to 68.

.Monday Night…  Mostly clear.  Low 40 to 45.

.Tuesday…  Partly cloudy.  High 63 to 68.

.Tuesday Night…  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 45 to 50.

.Wednesday…  Showers possible.  Mostly cloudy.  High 60 to 65.

Normal temperatures for Today

High:  59
Low:  41

Sunrise Sunday:  7:07 AM CDT
Sunset Sunday:   6:49 PM CDT

Tim

Issued at 3:04 PM CDT, Friday, September 28th, 2012

*My oh my what do we have here?  Wow that looks awfully cold! 12z EUROPEAN model for next Friday, October 5th, 2012.  Note the darker blues, even some purple colors over the Great Lakes, Upper Midwest, and Canada for next Friday, this may mean high temperatures only in the 30s and 40s in most of Minnesota late next week.  Stay tuned!

*571 reports of severe weather in Minnesota this year per Storm Prediction Center.

Damaging Wind (Blue dots)  304 reports
Large Hail (Green dots)  234 reports
Tornadoes (Red dots)  35
 

*A quieter year for severe weather in Wisconsin with 352 severe weather reports per Storm Prediction Center.

Damaging Wind:  352
Large Hail:  229
Tornadoes:  3

 

Weather Tidbits:

*Today is day number 11 so far this month with a maximum temperature of at least 70F.  This matches last September’s total.

*The average monthly temperature at Duluth, Minnesota for September (ending on the 27th) 56.4F which is 0.3 degrees warmer than normal.  It does appear that September will finish above average making it the 15th month in a row to do so.  The last month that was below average was June 2011.

*331 months in a row where the Global temperature exceeded the 20th century average per NASA and GISS.  (Paul Douglas St. Cloud Times)

*Take advantage of the nice weather this weekend, get outside and look at the foliage! All of Northern-Northeast Minnesota seeing anywhere from 50-100% color change as of Today per MNDNR.  

*Fall colors are peaking close to when they should be.  Mid September to early October is peak times for most of Northern Minnesota.  In Duluth proper it’s usually in late September/early October (Basically right on schedule this year)

Fall Color report for Northwest Wisconsin
Source:  Travelwisconsin.com

Douglas, Bayfield, Ashland, and Iron Counties have up to 75% color change.
Sawyer and Price Counties have up to 100% color change.
Burnett County has up to 50% color change.

Today’s Weather Summary for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

A great early fall day across the Northland as high pressure of 1022mb maintains control on our weather.  Skies were partly to mostly sunny, winds were out of the south or northeast at 5 to 15 mph, and high temperatures warmed into the upper 60s and 70s which is around 10-15 degrees above normal for late September.

Today’s Upper Level Analysis:

Winds aloft are weak in the Upper Midwest and are coming in from the N/NW per RAP model analysis.  Stronger mid/upper level winds were confined to portions of Canada and the Southern U.S.  850mb temperatures as of 2 PM ranged from +10 to +14C in Minnesota.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Tonight (September 28th)

A cold front currently in Southern Ontario will drop south and move through the Northland during the night.  Clear to partly cloudy skies are forecast with lows in the 40s to lower 50s, but a few 30s are possible as well.  Winds will swing around to the north/east at 5 to 15 mph.

Saturday and Saturday Night (September 29th)

High pressure will be centered to our north with a dry 10-20 mph east-northeast wind covering our area.  Partly cloudy to clear skies are on tap with highs Tomorrow in the 60s and 70s with cooler temperatures near Lake Superior.  Lows Tomorrow Night will be in the 30s and 40s.

Extended Forecast, Sunday through Tuesday (September 30th-October 2nd)

Sunday looks dry with highs in the 60s and 70s, except for slightly cooler temperatures near Lake Superior.  A cold front moves through the area Sunday Night-Monday Morning, could see a few rain showers as this front moves through.  Another cold front approaches the Upper Midwest for next Tuesday, a few rain showers could occur as that front passes through.  High temps on Monday and Tuesday will be in the 50s and 60s.  Low temperatures Sunday Night and Monday Night will mainly be in the 40s.

Long Range Forecast (October 3rd-8th)

The big news during this portion of the forecast will be the return to some pretty cold air.  Over the past few days the long range computer models have hinted at a return to below normal temperatures in the Northland, and Today’s model guidance I.E. GFS and EUROPEAN still support this solution.  Whether or not we see some sort of low pressure system take shape ahead of the cold air remains to be seen, and the forecast models have been in poor agreement recently for late next week, mainly in the October 4-6 time frame.  So as I mentioned above, it does look like below average temperatures will return to the region through this whole period.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR

.Tonight…  Partly cloudy.  Low 41 to 46.  Wind east to northeast at 5 to 15 mph.

.Saturday…  Mostly sunny.  High 62 to 67, a little cooler closer to Lake Superior.  Wind east at 10 to 20 mph.

.Saturday Night…  Mostly clear.  Low 40 to 45.  Wind east at 5 to 15 mph.

.Sunday…  Partly cloudy.  High 63 to 68, but a little cooler closer to Lake Superior.

.Sunday Night…  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Showers possible late.  Low 43 to 48.

.Monday…  Partly sunny.  Morning showers possible.  High 63 to 68.

.Monday Night…  Partly cloudy.  Low 40 to 45.

.Tuesday…  Partly sunny.  High 63 to 68.

Normal temperatures for Today

High:  60
Low:  41

Sunrise Saturday:  7:05 AM CDT
Sunset Saturday:   6:51 PM CDT

Tim

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Issued at 3:49 PM CDT, Thursday, September 27th, 2012

*Long Term Palmer Drought Severity Index as of September 22nd, 2012 shows that anywhere from 9-15″ of additional precipitation is needed to get back to average across the Northwest half of Minnesota.  Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin needs 3-6″ of additional precipitation to get back to average.

Drought continues to expand across the Northland.

*Drought monitor as of September 25th, 2012*
Source:  Climate Prediction Center

For Minnesota:

Abnormally Dry:  98% this week, up from 96% one week ago.
Moderate Drought:  77% this week, up from 64% last week.
Severe Drought:  35% this week, up from 28% last week.
Extreme Drought:  18% this week, up from 4% last week.

*Drought Monitor map for Minnesota

For Wisconsin:

Abnormally Dry:  99% this week, down from 100% last week.
Moderate Drought:  61% this week, up from 58% last week.
Severe Drought:  35% this week, up from 28% last week.
Extreme Drought:  8% this week, up from 5% last week.

Low temperature report for September 27th, 2012
Source:  National Weather Service

International Falls, MN:  24F
Brainerd, MN:  30F
Hibbing, MN:  23F
Ashland, WI:  26F
Hayward, WI:  24F
Two Harbors, MN:  28F
Silver Bay, MN:  23F
Grand Marais, MN (Airport)  27F
Ely, MN:  25F
Cook, MN:  25F
Crane Lake, MN:  25F
Eveleth, MN:  27F
Bigfork, MN:  25F
Grand Rapids, MN:  27F
Hinckley, MN:  27F
Superior, WI:  27F
Siren, WI:  28F
Phillips, WI:  28F
Togo, MN:  22F
Babbitt, MN:  24F
Embarrass, MN:  19F
4 E of Island Lake, MN:  28F
3 E of Orr, MN:  26F
2 S of Tower, MN:  25F
Butternut, WI:  26F
Upson, WI:  26F
Solon Springs, WI:  28F
4 W of Clam Lake, WI:  28F

Weather Tidbits:

*As of September 25th, 2012 there have been 724 tornadoes in the U.S.  Last year, there were 1,692 tornadoes up through September 25th.  (Paul Douglas St. Cloud Times)

*On this date in 1991:  A record low temperature of 27 degrees occurred at Duluth, Minnesota.

Today’s Weather Summary for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

High pressure of 1024mb covered the Great Lakes.  Skies were mainly sunny Today with high temperatures generally in the 60s.  Winds were variable in direction at around 10 mph.

Today’s Upper Level Analysis:

A west-northwest flow is in place across the Upper Midwest per RAP model analysis.  An upper level disturbance was over the Northern Rockies per water vapor satellite imagery.  850mb temperatures as of 3 PM ranged from +8 to +14C in Minnesota.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Tonight through Friday Night (September 27th-28th)

High pressure continues to dominate our weather resulting in clear-partly cloudy skies.  Lows Tonight and Friday Night will be in the 30s and 40s, but a few 20s can’t be ruled out in the typical cold spots.  Highs on Friday will be in the 60s and 70s.  Winds will be out of the south, west, or east at 5 to 15 mph.

Extended Forecast, Saturday through Monday (September 29th-October 1st)

Looks dry Saturday and Sunday, and then a few showers could enter the picture for next Monday as a cold front settles into the Upper Midwest.  High temperatures will be in the 60s and 70s during this period with lows Saturday Night and Sunday Night mainly in the 40s.  Note:  It still looks like will see a lake breeze at times this weekend along the North and South Shore of Lake Superior which will result in slightly cooler temperatures compared to inland locations.

Long Range Forecast (October 2nd-7th)

The computer models are beginning to hint at a possible cool-down with below average temperatures from October 4-7, so that’ll be something to keep an eye on in coming days, other than that there really isn’t much to talk about during this period.  Still looks pretty dry for the most part with just a chance for a few rain showers during the middle of next week as another cold front cuts through the region.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR

.Tonight…  Mostly clear.  Low 37 to 42.  Wind variable around 10 mph.

.Friday…  Mostly sunny.  Mild.  High 71 to 76.  Wind southwest at 10 to 20 mph.

.Friday Night…  Mostly clear.  Low 42 to 47.  Wind north to northeast at 5 to 15 mph.

.Saturday…  Mostly sunny.  High 61 to 66.

.Saturday Night…  Partly cloudy.  Low 42 to 47.

.Sunday…  Partly cloudy.  High 63 to 68.

.Sunday Night…  Partly cloudy.  Low 43 to 48.

.Monday…  Partly sunny.  High 62 to 67.

Normal temperatures for Today

High:  60
Low:  42

Sunrise Friday:  7:04 AM CDT
Sunset Friday:   6:53 PM CDT

Tim

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Issued at 3:30 PM CDT, Wednesday, September 26th, 2012

*Here’s a map showing the coldest low temperature from September 1-25, 2012.  Note the pockets of warmer temperatures, 1 over the Twin Cities, the other along portions of the North Shore of Lake Superior in Northeast Minnesota.  (Map from MPR Updraft blog)

Weather Tidbits:

*2nd driest September on record at Minneapolis/St. Paul.  0.30″ of precipitation has fallen so far this month.  The record driest September occurred in 1882 with 0.27″ of precipitation.  (Updraft; MPR)

*Still waiting for the 1st official 32 degree low temperature of the season at Duluth, Minnesota.  We’ve gotten close to the freezing mark 4 times this month (33F) but have failed to drop 1 more degree to 32.  Last year, September 15th was the 1st time with a low temperature of 32F, so were running over a week later this year compared to last.

Low temperature report for September 26th, 2012
Source:  National Weather Service

Duluth, MN:  34F
International Falls, MN:  28F
Brainerd, MN:  31F
Hibbing, MN:  24F
Hayward, WI:  27F
Two Harbors, MN:  32F
Silver Bay, MN:  25F
Ely, MN:  28F
Crane Lake, MN:  28F
Cook, MN:  28F
Bigfork, MN:  27F
Grand Rapids, MN:  28F
Pine River, MN:  27F
Aitkin, MN:  27F
Phillips, WI:  28F
3 E of Wright, MN:  28F
Cass Lake, MN:  28F
Northome, MN:  26F
Embarrass, MN:  23F
Floodwood, MN:  25F
2 S of Tower, MN:  26F
Butternut, WI:  27F
Gurney, WI:  29F
Upson, WI:  29F
Winter, WI:  28F

Today’s Weather Summary for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

High pressure of 1020-1022mb covered the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes Today.  Skies were partly to mostly sunny with highs in the 50s to around 60 degrees.  Winds were out of the north, east, or west at 5 to 15 mph.

Today’s Upper Level Analysis:

Northwest flow continued in the Upper Midwest with upper lows over the Southcentral Rockies and Northwest Montana per water vapor satellite imagery.  850mb temperatures as of 3 PM ranged from +4 to +8C in Western-Southern Minnesota to +2C elsewhere.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Tonight through Thursday Night (September 26th-27th)

High pressure continues to control our weather resulting in clear to partly cloudy skies.  Lows Tonight and Tomorrow Night will be in the 30s and 40s with some 20s in the typical cold spots.  Highs on Thursday will mainly be in the 60s.  Winds will be out of the north, west, or east at 5 to 15 mph.

Extended Forecast, Friday through Sunday (September 28th-30th)

Still dry during this period with high temperatures in the 60s and 70s, lows will mainly be in the 40s.  A lake breeze is possible at times along the North and South Shore of Lake Superior which could keep high temperatures somewhat cooler versus inland locations.

Long Range Forecast (October 1st-6th)

May see a few cold frontal passages during the early/mid part of next week, but little if any rain is expected at this time.  A better chance for rain is looming for late next week/weekend (5th-6th)  As a trough develops over the Western U.S. which will setup a SW flow aloft in the Plains and Great Lakes.  Temperatures are forecast to be near to above normal through this period.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR

.Tonight…  Mostly clear.  Low 34 to 39.  Wind north to northeast around 10 mph.

.Thursday…  Mostly sunny.  High 61 to 66.  Wind southwest at 10 to 20 mph.

.Thursday Night…  Mostly clear.  Low 38 to 43.  Wind south around 10 mph.

.Friday…  Partly cloudy.  High 65 to 70.

.Friday Night…  Partly cloudy.  Low 42 to 47.

.Saturday…  Partly cloudy.  High 61 to 66.

.Saturday Night…  Partly cloudy.  Low 42 to 47.

.Sunday…  Partly cloudy.  High 63 to 68.

Normal temperatures for Today

High:  61
Low:  42

Sunrise Thursday:  7:03 AM CDT
Sunset Thursday:   6:55 PM CDT

Tim

Issued at 3:42 PM CDT, Tuesday, September 25th, 2012

*Record Event*
Source:  National Weather Service

A record low temperature occurred at International Falls, Minnesota on Sunday, September 23rd, 2012.  The low temperature was 21 degrees which broke the previous record low of 24 degrees set in 1995.

Low temperature report for September 25th, 2012
Source:  National Weather Service

Duluth, MN:  33F
International Falls, MN:  25F
Hibbing, MN:  25F
Hayward, WI:  32F
Two Harbors, MN:  32F
Silver Bay, MN:  25F
Grand Marais, MN (Airport)  27F
Ely, MN:  25F
Orr, MN:  27F
Crane Lake, MN:  25F
Bigfork, MN:  25F
Cook, MN:  27F
Eveleth, MN:  28F
Grand Rapids, MN:  30F
Longville, MN:  28F
Pine River, MN:  30F
Aitkin, MN:  28F
Moose Lake, MN:  32F
Cloquet, MN:  32F
McGregor, MN:  32F
Superior, WI:  28F
Upson, WI:  29F
3 E of Wright, MN:  29F
Cass Lake, MN:  29F
Northome, MN:  28F
Embarrass, MN:  23F
Floodwood, MN:  26F
Kabetogama, MN:  29F
3 E of Orr, MN:  27F
Finland, MN:  32F

Today’s Weather Summary for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

As advertised, Today was a cooler day compared to Monday with highs in the 50s with a few lower 60s in Southern parts of the area.  Skies were partly to mostly cloudy with winds out of the north or west at 5 to 15 mph.

Today’s Upper Level Analysis:

A northwest flow covered the Upper Midwest per RAP model analysis while an upper level low churns over the Central Rockies per water vapor satellite imagery.  850mb temperatures as of 3 PM ranged from 0C across Northern Minnesota to +2 to +12C over the rest of the state.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Tonight through Wednesday Night (September 25th-26th)

High pressure dominates through this period.  Partly-mostly cloudy skies are forecast Tonight with partly cloudy skies Tomorrow and Tomorrow Night.  May see a few brief light showers/sprinkles This Evening over the Iron Range and Arrowhead.  Low temperatures Tonight will be in the 20s and 30s with highs Wednesday in the 50s to lower 60s.  Wednesday Night’s low temperature will be mainly in the 30s, but some 20s are still possible in the traditional cold spots.

Extended Forecast, Thursday through Saturday (September 27th-29th)

The pattern amplifies a bit during this period with upper lows to our west and east with an upper level ridge to our northwest.  Still looks dry in the Northland with high temperatures mainly in the 60s from Thursday through Saturday with a few 70s even possible.  Low temperatures Thursday Night and Friday Night will mainly be in the 40s.  Note:  A lake breeze is possible at times during this period along and near the North and South Shore of Lake Superior which may keep high temperatures a bit lower compared to inland locations.

Long Range Forecast (September 30th-October 5th)

Dry.  Dry.  Dry.  Yup it’s looking pretty dry right into next week, although there continues to be some trends showing up for a weather system giving the Northland some rain during the middle/end of next week (October 3-5) so will see how the models handle that over the coming days.  Temperatures are forecast to be near to above average with a potential cool-down later next week, but whether or not that brings temperatures to below normal levels remains to be seen.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR

.Tonight…  Some clouds This Evening.  Mostly clear later on.  Low 31 to 36.  Wind variable around 10 mph.

.Wednesday…  Partly cloudy.  High 55 to 60.  Wind variable at 5 to 15 mph.

.Wednesday Night…  Mostly clear.  Low 35 to 40.  Wind west around 10 mph.

.Thursday…  Partly cloudy.  High 63 to 68.

.Thursday Night…  Partly cloudy.  Low 40 to 45.

.Friday…  Partly cloudy.  High 63 to 68.

.Friday Night…  Partly cloudy.  Low 42 to 47.

.Saturday…  Partly cloudy.  High 61 to 66.

Normal temperatures for Today

High:  61
Low:  42

Sunrise Wednesday:  7:01 AM CDT
Sunset Wednesday:   6:57 PM CDT

Tim

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