Issued at 12:21 PM CDT, Thursday, September 20th, 2012
*All of Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin need 3-6″ of additional precipitation to get back to average per the latest Long Term Palmer Drought Severity Index released on September 15th, 2012. Anywhere from 9-15″ of additional precipitation is needed to get back to average across the Northwest half of Minnesota.
*Drought Update as of Tuesday, September 18th, 2012*
Source: Climate Prediction Center
Minnesota:
-Abnormally Dry conditions: Increased from 83% last week to 96% this week.
-Moderate Drought: Increased from 44% last week to 64% this week.
-Severe Drought: Stayed nearly the same as last week at 28%
-Extreme Drought: Nearly the same as last week at 4%.
Wisconsin:
-Moderate Drought: Increased from 54% last week to 58% this week.
-Severe Drought: Up slightly from 27% last week to 28% this week.
-Extreme Drought: Nearly the same as last week at 5%.
Midwest:
-Moderate Drought: Increased from 93% last week to 94% this week.
-Severe Drought: Decreased from 40% last week to 39% this week.
-Extreme Drought: Decreased from 13% last week to 12% this week.
-Exceptional Drought: Decreased from 0.38% last week to 0.27% this week.
*30 day outlook for October 2012*
Source: CPC
For Duluth, Minnesota:
A 33% chance for above normal temperatures; equal chance for above, normal, or below normal precipitation.
*90 day outlook for October-December 2012*
Source: CPC
For Duluth, Minnesota:
A 40% chance for above normal temperatures; equal chance for above, normal, or below normal precipitation.
*Winter 2012-13 outlook* UPDATED**
Source: CPC
December-February 2012-2013
For Duluth, Minnesota:
A 33% chance for above normal temperatures; equal chance for above, normal, or below normal precipitation.
*Key point in the latest discussion out of the Climate Prediction Center: A strong El Nino is NOT likely this fall/winter in the U.S. The upcoming El Nino event is expected to be a weak one, meaning other factors may offset it, so although above average temperatures are still being predicted this winter in Minnesota, don’t bet the house on that forecast yet.
*U.S. Seasonal Drought Outlook released September 20th, 2012. This is valid through December 31st, 2012. Quite a change between the last update a few weeks ago compared to this one. The drought is now forecast to persist or continue to develop in most of Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin.
Tim