Issued 3:48 PM CDT, Wednesday, October 31st, 2012
*The Climate Prediction Center released their updated outlook for November 2012. A wetter than average month ahead for Minnesota and Wisconsin? Keep in mind that Duluth’s average snowfall for November is 13.7″ and the average precipitation is 2.09″.
*The updated temperature outlook for November 2012 calls for an equal chance of above, below, or normal temperatures in Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin. (CPC)
A very cold Halloween Morning in the Northland
Low temperature report for October 31, 2012
Source: National Weather Service Duluth, MN
International Falls, MN: 12F
Hibbing, MN: 13F
Crane Lake, MN: 12F
Ely, MN: 12F
Cook, MN: 10F
Bigfork, MN: 12F
Superior, WI: 14F
Siren, WI: 14F
Babbitt, MN: 8F
Embarrass, MN: 10F
3 E of Orr, MN: 13F
*Will October go down as the 1st month since June 2011 with a below average monthly temperature at Duluth, Minnesota? Seems pretty likely that it will, but going into Today the average monthly temperature for October was just 0.7 degrees below normal.
*The water temperature at the Duluth-Superior Harbor was 44.4F on this last day of October.
Today’s Weather Summary for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin
Temperatures warmed nicely This Afternoon considering how cold it was to start the day. High temperatures were mainly in the 40s with winds out of the north or west at 5 to 15 mph. Skies were partly cloudy to sunny.
Today’s Upper Level Analysis:
RAP model analysis and water vapor satellite imagery shows a NW flow covering the Upper Midwest with upper troughs to our east and over the Northeast Pacific. 850mb temperatures as of 3 PM ranged from 0 to -2C in Northeast Minnesota to +2 to +6C in Western, Central, and Southern Minnesota.
Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin
Tonight (October 31st)
A cold front will drop SE and pass through the Northland during the night. Clear to partly cloudy skies are expected with lows in the 20s and 30s. Winds will be out of the west or northwest at 10 to 20 mph.
Thursday and Thursday Night (November 1st)
Cooler air invades the area during this period with highs Tomorrow in the 30s to around 40 degrees. Lows Tomorrow Night will be in the teens and 20s. Clear to partly cloudy skies should continue this period with winds out of the north or west at 10 to 20 mph.
Note: There could be a few snow flurries late Tonight into Thursday Morning, mainly in extreme Northern Minnesota.
Extended Forecast, Friday through Sunday (November 2nd-4th)
A mid/upper level area of low pressure is forecast to drop SE out of the Northern Plains between Friday and early Sunday. This system doesn’t look to have much moisture associated with it, but there still could be some light snow or mixed rain/snow in portions of Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin, especially from Friday Night into early Sunday. High temperatures will be in the 30s to around 40 degrees from Friday through Sunday. Low temperatures Friday Night and Saturday Night will be in the 20s to lower 30s.
*The HPC is quite aggressive with the amount of snow that may come down Friday Night-Saturday in North Central Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin. A slight risk for at least 4″ of snow in the blue outlined area. Not really buying into this solution at this time.
Long Range Forecast (November 5th-10th)
A strong area of low pressure will pass through Central Canada from the 5th-7th, a cold front attached to this low will sweep through the area sometime early next week, a few showers of rain or snow can’t be ruled out as this front moves through. The period from November 9-10, including a few days beyond this period could feature a stronger storm system coming out of the Western U.S. The long range computer models for the 2nd day in a row continue to show a pattern that may be favorable for a more organized storm, but of course the exact track/timing/strength remains uncertain this far out in time. Stay tuned! Temperatures from November 5-10 are forecast to be near to slightly above normal.
5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR
.Tonight… Partly cloudy. Low 27 to 32. Wind west at 10 to 20 mph.
.Thursday… Partly cloudy. High 37 to 42. Wind northwest at 15 to 20 mph.
.Thursday Night… Mostly clear. Low 20 to 25. Wind north to northwest at 10 to 15 mph.
.Friday… Partly to mostly sunny. High 38 to 43.
.Friday Night… Mostly cloudy. Low 28 to 33.
.Saturday… Considerable cloudiness. High 35 to 40.
.Saturday Night… Mostly cloudy. Low 25 to 30.
.Sunday… Partly sunny. High 38 to 43.
Normal temperatures for Today
Sunrise Thursday: 7:52 AM CDT
Sunset Thursday: 5:52 PM CDT