Issued 3:38 PM CST, Wednesday, November 7th, 2012
*Winter Weather Headlines are in effect beginning Thursday PM and continuing into early Saturday for parts of Montana and North Dakota, the dark red area is a BLIZZARD WARNING! Much of Central-Northern-Western North Dakota is under a Winter Storm Watch or a Winter Weather Advisory. Source: NWS Bismarck, North Dakota.
Weather Tidbits:
-Tuesday’s high temperature reached 41F at Duluth, Minnesota. This was the first day with a high temperature at or above 40F since November 1, or a string of 4 days (2nd-5th) that the high temperature stayed below 40F.
-November is off to a chilly start at Duluth, Minnesota. The average temperature ending on the 6th: 32.6F which is 2.6 degrees below average.
Today’s Weather Summary for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin
Yup it’s November. Typical gray/gloomy skies in the Northland which is normal for this time of year. Highs were in the 30s and 40s with winds out of the west or south at 5 to 15 mph.
Today’s Upper Level Analysis:
RAP model analysis and water vapor satellite imagery reveals two troughs. One in the Northeast U.S. and the other associated with widespread height falls of 60-120 meters was over the Western U.S. In between these troughs was an upper level ridge which covered parts of the Northern and Central Plains. 850mb temperatures as of 3 PM ranged from +2 to +4C in Western-Southwestern Minnesota to 0 to -4C elsewhere.
Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin
Tonight (November 7th)
Warm air advection ahead of a cold front and low pressure to our W/NW may cause a few rain showers Tonight, generally in Northern Minnesota and the Arrowhead. Mostly cloudy skies will continue with lows mainly in the 30s. Winds will be out of the south or west at 5 to 15 mph.
Thursday and Thursday Night (November 8th)
Low pressure passes north of our area while a cold front moves SE and through the Northland on Thursday. Looks dry this period with partly to mostly cloudy skies. It will be mild on Thursday with highs in the 40s and 50s. Lows Thursday Night will be in the 20s and 30s. Winds will be out of the south or west at 10 to 20 mph.
Extended Forecast, Friday through Sunday (November 9th-11th)
High pressure will setup to our north across Central Canada Friday and Saturday while a deep upper level trough over the Western U.S. pulls out into the Plains this weekend. Low pressure is forecast to track from the Central Rockies toward Northeastern Minnesota or Western Lake Superior from Saturday into early Sunday. Whether or not we see some sort of secondary low pressure wave lift N/NE out of the Central Plains and affect the Northland late this weekend is uncertain at this time.
Some changes have occurred in the computer models during the past 24 hours. It now appears that there may be just enough cold air in Northern Minnesota and the Arrowhead for a wintry mix of rain, snow, and maybe even some freezing rain Friday Night into Sunday. It still looks like the heavier accumulations of snow will be in parts of the Dakotas into Northwest Minnesota this weekend, but there is a chance that Northern Minnesota could pick up a few inches of snow based on the latest model data. Some locations this would include are…International Falls, Bigfork, Crane Lake, Ely, and the higher terrain along the North Shore of Lake Superior, also including the Arrowhead of Minnesota.
Should remain warm enough for whatever falls to be in liquid form in all of Northwest Wisconsin, back through Eastcentral Minnesota. Note: The potential for thunderstorms appears to be somewhat lower in our area compared to what it looked like 24 hours ago.
As for Sunday…Expect colder temperatures in our area as low pressure departs to our NE, but a lingering upper trough moving through the Upper Midwest could bring some snow and rain showers to Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin.
High temperatures are forecast to be in the 30s and 40s on Friday with 30s in Northern Minnesota on Saturday with 40s and 50s in Eastern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin. Highs on Sunday will be in the 20s and 30s. Low temperatures will be in the 20s and 30s Friday Night with 30s and 40s for Saturday Night.
Long Range Forecast (November 12th-17th)
Unfortunately for snow lovers this won’t be a good forecast. Seeing no signs of snow during this period, in fact it looks rather mild, especially toward the middle/end of next week or from the 15th-17th. Below normal temperatures are expected on the 12th, then near to above normal temperatures for the 13th-17th.
5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR
.Tonight… Mostly cloudy. Low 31 to 36. Wind south around 10 mph.
.Thursday… Partly sunny. High 48 to 53. Wind southwest at 10 to 20 mph.
.Thursday Night… Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 30 to 35. Wind north at 10 to 20 mph.
.Friday… Mostly cloudy. High 38 to 43.
.Friday Night… Mostly cloudy. Drizzle possible. Low 33 to 36.
.Saturday… Mostly cloudy. Showers and drizzle possible. High 40 to 45.
.Saturday Night… Mostly cloudy. Showers possible. Low 30 to 35.
.Sunday… Mostly cloudy. High 35 to 40.
Normal temperatures for Today
High: 40
Low: 27
Sunrise Thursday: 7:02 AM CST
Sunset Thursday: 4:42 PM CST
Tim
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