/Issued 3:34 PM CST, Monday, December 31st, 2012/
*18z RAP model temperature forecast for Tonight. Bone chilling cold in Minnesota with widespread 10 below to 20 below (or colder) temperatures by daybreak.
*WIND CHILL ADVISORY*
Source: National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota
Location: All of Northeast Minnesota including the Counties of Koochiching…Itasca…Cass…Crow Wing…Aitkin…Pine…Carlton…St. Louis…Lake…and Cook, and the cities of International Falls…Bigfork…Grand Rapids…Walker…Brainerd…Aitkin…Pine City…Hinckley…Moose Lake…Duluth…Hibbing…Ely…Two Harbors…Silver Bay…and Grand Marais.
Timing: 10 PM Tonight until 9 AM Tuesday.
Discussion: Wind chill values of 20 below to 30 below beginning later This Evening and lasting into Tuesday Morning.
A wind chill advisory means that very cold air and strong winds will combine to generate low wind chills. This will result in frost bite and lead to hypothermia if precautions are not taken. If you must venture outdoors make sure you wear a hat and gloves.
*Areas shaded in light blue are under a Wind Chill Advisory for Tonight and Tuesday Morning. (Map from the NWS Duluth, MN)
High temperature report for Duluth, Minnesota (Airport location)
December 23-29, 2012:
12/23: 17F/3 degrees below normal
12/24: 11F/9 degrees below normal
12/25: 10F/10 degrees below normal
12/26: 18F/2 degrees below normal
12/27: 22F/2 degrees above normal
12/28: 23F/3 degrees above normal
12/29: 18F/1 degrees below normal
Low temperature report for Duluth, Minnesota (Airport location)
December 23-29, 2012:
12/23: 7F/2 degrees above normal
12/24: -2F/6 degrees below normal
12/25: -7F/11 degrees below normal
12/26: -1F/5 degrees below normal
12/27: -2F/6 degrees below normal
12/28: 16F/13 degrees above normal
12/29: 7F/4 degrees above normal
Precipitation total for 12/23-12/29: 0.18″
*Temperature departure map for 12/23-12/29/2012: Cold last week! Duluth saw temperatures that were around 4 degrees below average.
*Precipitation departure map for 12/23-12/29/12: The North Shore saw some decent precip totals last week, 75-100% of what they typically receive. Duluth was around 25% of normal.
Winter 2012-13 snowfall update through December 30th, 2012
Source: National Weather Service
International Falls, MN:
Total snowfall: 25.3″
Total snowfall: 24.5″
Green Bay, WI:
Total snowfall: 24.3″
Eau Claire, WI:
Total snowfall: 21.8″
St. Cloud, MN:
Total snowfall: 18.0″
Twin Cities, MN:
Total snowfall: 15.8″
Grand Forks, ND:
Total snowfall: 14.2″
Note: According to the National Weather Service, 2012 will go down as the 3rd warmest year on record at both Duluth and International Falls, Minnesota.
International Falls, MN:
January climate averages for Duluth, Minnesota (Airport location)
Sunrise on the 1st: 7:54 AM CST.
Sunrise on the 31st: 7:34 AM CST.
Sunset on the 1st: 4:31 PM CST.
Sunset on the 31st: 5:11 PM CST.
*The Climate Prediction Center is still calling for enhanced odds for above average precipitation in much of Minnesota during January 2013.
*There’s also a warmer bias showing up for January 2013. Climate Prediction Center is forecasting above average temperatures in all but Northern Minnesota where average temperatures are expected. This fits well with the LRC which shows a couple cold shots and some impressive warm-ups, with the biggest warm spell occurring before mid-month.
Today’s Weather Summary for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin
Arctic high pressure of 1026mb was building into Minnesota Today. Skies were sunny to partly cloudy in the Northland with a cold final day of 2012. High temperatures were in the single digits and teens with north or west winds at 5 to around 20 mph.
*61.9% of the U.S. is covered by snow as of December 31, 2012. This is up from 13.3% in late November and up from 18.9% at this time last year.
2012 Dec. 31 snow depth map.
*2011 Dec. 31 snow depth map.
Today’s Upper Level Analysis:
One hell of a potent jet stream on the upper air charts Today, this thing stretches from Texas up to New England with wind speeds ranging from 130-160 knots, wow! Seeing a NW flow across the Upper Midwest Today with 850mb temperatures as of 3 PM ranging from -16 to -20C in Central and Northern Minnesota to -12 to -14C in Southern Minnesota.
Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin
Short Term – Confidence: High.
Tonight (December 31st)
Very cold temperatures are likely with lows in the teens and 20s below zero. Mostly clear skies are forecast with winds from the west or northwest at 5 to 15 mph. Dangerously cold wind chills of 20 to 30 below will develop This Evening and persist Overnight. Make sure you bundle up if you plan to be outdoors Tonight.
Tuesday and Tuesday Night (January 1st)
The new year will start off on the chilly side. Partly cloudy skies are forecast this period with arctic high pressure moving off to our south/east. Highs on Tuesday will be in the single digits and teens with lows Tuesday Night ranging from around 5 below to the teens above zero. Winds will turn to the south this period at 10 to 15 mph.
Extended Forecast – Confidence: High.
Wednesday through Friday (January 2nd-4th)
A clipper system will track north of our area on Wednesday, this system should bring some snow showers and flurries to Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin with 1″ or less of accumulation expected. Thursday-Friday are looking mainly dry at this time, but lake effect snow showers could affect the South Shore of Lake Superior in Northwest Wisconsin from Wednesday Night into Thursday with a couple inches of accumulation possible, especially from the Gogebic Range, to Hurley and Gile.
High temperatures will be in the teens and 20s on Wednesday and Friday with single digits and teens for Thursday. Low temperatures Wednesday Night will range from around 10 below to 10 above with lows Thursday Night in the single digits below to low teens above zero.
Long Range Forecast – Confidence: High.
This period looks pretty mild at this time with temperatures mostly above average. A parade of clippers will stay north of our area giving Manitoba and Ontario some accumulating snowfall from time to time. Only flurries or snow showers can be expected this far south. There are signs showing up of a system approaching the Upper Midwest from the Western U.S. toward the middle-end of next week, or from the 9th-11th, but with the mild air in place we may be dealing with precipitation type issues should this system affect the Upper Midwest.
5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR
*WIND CHILL ADVISORY*
Valid: Mid-Evening through Tuesday Morning.
.Tonight… Very cold. Mostly clear. Low 10 below to 15 below. Wind northwest at 10 to 15 mph. Wind chills from 20 below to 30 below.
.New Year’s Day… Mostly sunny. High 10 to 15. Wind southwest at 10 to 15 mph. Morning wind chills from 20 below to 30 below.
.Tuesday Night… Partly cloudy. Low 3 to 8. Wind southwest at 5 to 15 mph.
.Wednesday… Snow showers and flurries at times. Mostly cloudy. High 18 to 23.
.Wednesday Night… Flurries possible. Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 0 to 5.
.Thursday… Partly cloudy. High 5 to 10.
.Thursday Night… Partly cloudy. Low 0 to 5.
.Friday… Partly cloudy. High 20 to 25.
Normal temperatures for Today
Sunrise Tuesday: 7:54 AM CST
Sunset Tuesday: 4:31 PM CST