Monthly Archives: December 2012

/Issued 3:34 PM CST, Monday, December 31st, 2012/

*18z RAP model temperature forecast for Tonight.  Bone chilling cold in Minnesota with widespread 10 below to 20 below (or colder) temperatures by daybreak.

*WIND CHILL ADVISORY*
Source:  National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota

Location:  All of Northeast Minnesota including the Counties of Koochiching…Itasca…Cass…Crow Wing…Aitkin…Pine…Carlton…St. Louis…Lake…and Cook, and the cities of International Falls…Bigfork…Grand Rapids…Walker…Brainerd…Aitkin…Pine City…Hinckley…Moose Lake…Duluth…Hibbing…Ely…Two Harbors…Silver Bay…and Grand Marais.

Timing:  10 PM Tonight until 9 AM Tuesday.

Discussion:  Wind chill values of 20 below to 30 below beginning later This Evening and lasting into Tuesday Morning.

A wind chill advisory means that very cold air and strong winds will combine to generate low wind chills.  This will result in frost bite and lead to hypothermia if precautions are not taken.  If you must venture outdoors make sure you wear a hat and gloves.  

*Areas shaded in light blue are under a Wind Chill Advisory for Tonight and Tuesday Morning.  (Map from the NWS Duluth, MN)

High temperature report for Duluth, Minnesota (Airport location)

December 23-29, 2012:

12/23:  17F/3 degrees below normal
12/24:  11F/9 degrees below normal
12/25:  10F/10 degrees below normal
12/26:  18F/2 degrees below normal
12/27:  22F/2 degrees above normal
12/28:  23F/3 degrees above normal
12/29:  18F/1 degrees below normal

Low temperature report for Duluth, Minnesota (Airport location)

December 23-29, 2012:

12/23:  7F/2 degrees above normal
12/24:  -2F/6 degrees below normal
12/25:  -7F/11 degrees below normal
12/26:  -1F/5 degrees below normal
12/27:  -2F/6 degrees below normal
12/28:  16F/13 degrees above normal
12/29:  7F/4 degrees above normal

Precipitation total for 12/23-12/29:  0.18″
Average:  0.27″
Departure:  -0.09″

*Temperature departure map for 12/23-12/29/2012:  Cold last week! Duluth saw temperatures that were around 4 degrees below average.

 *Precipitation departure map for 12/23-12/29/12:  The North Shore saw some decent precip totals last week, 75-100% of what they typically receive.  Duluth was around 25% of normal.

Winter 2012-13 snowfall update through December 30th, 2012
Source:  National Weather Service

International Falls, MN:

Total snowfall:  25.3″
Departure:  -5.2″

Duluth, MN:

Total snowfall:  24.5″
Departure:  -8.7″

Green Bay, WI:

Total snowfall:  24.3″
Departure:  +7.4″

Eau Claire, WI:

Total snowfall:  21.8″
Departure:  +6.3″

St. Cloud, MN:

Total snowfall:  18.0″
Departure:  -0.3″

Twin Cities, MN:

Total snowfall:  15.8″
Departure:  -5.6″

Grand Forks, ND:

Total snowfall:  14.2″
Departure:  -3.4″

Note:  According to the National Weather Service, 2012 will go down as the 3rd warmest year on record at both Duluth and International Falls, Minnesota.

Duluth, MN:

1:  44.6F/1931
2:  44.5F/1887
3:  44.3F/2012
4:  43.4F/1998
5:  43.0F/2006

International Falls, MN:

1:  42.4F/1987
2:  41.4F/1998
3:  40.6F/2012
4:  40.3F/1981
5:  40.3F/2006
6:  40.3F/1915

January climate averages for Duluth, Minnesota (Airport location)

Temperature:  10.2F
Precipitation:  0.96″
Snowfall:  19.4″

Astronomical data:

Sunrise on the 1st:  7:54 AM CST.
Sunrise on the 31st:  7:34 AM CST.

Sunset on the 1st:  4:31 PM CST.
Sunset on the 31st:  5:11 PM CST.  

*The Climate Prediction Center is still calling for enhanced odds for above average precipitation in much of Minnesota during January 2013.

*There’s also a warmer bias showing up for January 2013.  Climate Prediction Center is forecasting above average temperatures in all but Northern Minnesota where average temperatures are expected.  This fits well with the LRC which shows a couple cold shots and some impressive warm-ups, with the biggest warm spell occurring before mid-month.

Today’s Weather Summary for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Arctic high pressure of 1026mb was building into Minnesota Today.  Skies were sunny to partly cloudy in the Northland with a cold final day of 2012.  High temperatures were in the single digits and teens with north or west winds at 5 to around 20 mph.

*61.9% of the U.S. is covered by snow as of December 31, 2012.  This is up from 13.3% in late November and up from 18.9% at this time last year.

2012 Dec. 31 snow depth map.

*2011 Dec. 31 snow depth map.

Today’s Upper Level Analysis:

One hell of a potent jet stream on the upper air charts Today, this thing stretches from Texas up to New England with wind speeds ranging from 130-160 knots, wow!  Seeing a NW flow across the Upper Midwest Today with 850mb temperatures as of 3 PM ranging from -16 to -20C in Central and Northern Minnesota to -12 to -14C in Southern Minnesota.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Short Term – Confidence:  High.

Tonight (December 31st)

Very cold temperatures are likely with lows in the teens and 20s below zero.  Mostly clear skies are forecast with winds from the west or northwest at 5 to 15 mph.  Dangerously cold wind chills of 20 to 30 below will develop This Evening and persist Overnight.  Make sure you bundle up if you plan to be outdoors Tonight.

Tuesday and Tuesday Night (January 1st)

The new year will start off on the chilly side.  Partly cloudy skies are forecast this period with arctic high pressure moving off to our south/east.  Highs on Tuesday will be in the single digits and teens with lows Tuesday Night ranging from around 5 below to the teens above zero.  Winds will turn to the south this period at 10 to 15 mph.

Extended Forecast – Confidence:  High.

Wednesday through Friday (January 2nd-4th)

A clipper system will track north of our area on Wednesday, this system should bring some snow showers and flurries to Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin with 1″ or less of accumulation expected.  Thursday-Friday are looking mainly dry at this time, but lake effect snow showers could affect the South Shore of Lake Superior in Northwest Wisconsin from Wednesday Night into Thursday with a couple inches of accumulation possible, especially from the Gogebic Range, to Hurley and Gile.

High temperatures will be in the teens and 20s on Wednesday and Friday with single digits and teens for Thursday.  Low temperatures Wednesday Night will range from around 10 below to 10 above with lows Thursday Night in the single digits below to low teens above zero.

Long Range Forecast – Confidence:  High.

(January 5th-10th)

This period looks pretty mild at this time with temperatures mostly above average.  A parade of clippers will stay north of our area giving Manitoba and Ontario some accumulating snowfall from time to time.  Only flurries or snow showers can be expected this far south.  There are signs showing up of a system approaching the Upper Midwest from the Western U.S. toward the middle-end of next week, or from the 9th-11th, but with the mild air in place we may be dealing with precipitation type issues should this system affect the Upper Midwest.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR

*WIND CHILL ADVISORY*
Valid:  Mid-Evening through Tuesday Morning.

.Tonight…  Very cold.  Mostly clear.  Low 10 below to 15 below.  Wind northwest at 10 to 15 mph.  Wind chills from 20 below to 30 below.

.New Year’s Day…  Mostly sunny.  High 10 to 15.  Wind southwest at 10 to 15 mph.  Morning wind chills from 20 below to 30 below.

.Tuesday Night…  Partly cloudy.  Low 3 to 8.  Wind southwest at 5 to 15 mph.

.Wednesday…  Snow showers and flurries at times.  Mostly cloudy.  High 18 to 23.

.Wednesday Night…  Flurries possible.  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 0 to 5.

.Thursday…  Partly cloudy.  High 5 to 10.

.Thursday Night…  Partly cloudy.  Low 0 to 5.

.Friday…  Partly cloudy.  High 20 to 25.

Normal temperatures for Today

High:  19
Low:    3

Sunrise Tuesday:  7:54 AM CST
Sunset Tuesday:   4:31 PM CST

Tim

/Issued 3:37 PM CST, Saturday, December 29th, 2012/

Today’s Weather Summary for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

There’s a weak cold front moving southeast through the Northland Today, this front kept some flurries and snow showers going in our area, but accumulations if any have been very minimal.  High temperatures were in the teens to lower 20s with winds out of the southwest or northwest at 10 to 15 mph.

Today’s Upper Level Analysis:

A northwest flow covered the Upper Midwest Today while an upper trough moves east into the Rockies per water vapor satellite imagery.  850mb temperatures as of 3 PM ranged from -6 to -10C in Western and Southern Minnesota to -12 to -16C in Central and Northern Minnesota.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Short Term – Confidence:  High.

Tonight (December 29th)

Scattered snow showers and flurries will persist This Evening, and then mainly dry for the Overnight hours.  Partly to mostly cloudy skies are forecast and it will be a cold one as low temperatures drop into the 5 above to 15 below range.  Winds will be from the northwest or southwest at around 10 mph.

Sunday and Sunday Night (December 30th)

Low pressure passes north of Minnesota this period with a warm front and cold front connected to this low passing through our area.  Light snow and flurries could affect Northern Minnesota on Sunday with accumulations less than 1″.  Sunday Night could feature some flurries or light snow showers throughout the Northland as cold air moves in.  High temperatures on Sunday will be in the teens and 20s.  Lows Sunday Night will range from zero to 20 below in Northern Minnesota to the single digits and teens above zero in Northwest Wisconsin.  Southerly winds Tomorrow will turn to the northwest Tomorrow Night at 10 to 20 mph.

Extended Forecast – Confidence:  Medium.

Monday through Wednesday (December 31st-January 2nd)

A few flurries are possible on Monday with high temperatures only in the single digits below to around 10 above zero.  Low temperatures Monday Night should tank into the 10 below to 25 below range with mainly dry conditions.  Tuesday and Wednesday could feature some snow showers and flurries at times as two clipper systems affect the Upper Midwest.  Highs on Tuesday and Wednesday will be in the single digits and teens with lows Tuesday Night ranging from around 5 above to 15 below.

Note:  There is a potential for some accumulating snowfall, especially on Wednesday but the exact details are somewhat uncertain.  The most likely area that could pick up a few inches of snow looks to be along the South Shore of Lake Superior in Northwest Wisconsin, but this may also extend as far west as the Twin Ports and up toward Two Harbors.

Long Range Forecast – Confidence:  High.

(January 3rd-8th)

Looks mainly dry from the 3rd-5th.  Chances for some light snow could return at times between the 6th-8th as more clipper like systems move southeast out of Western Canada.  Below average temperatures are forecast on the 3rd and 4th with near to above average temperatures forecast from the 5th-8th.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR

.Tonight…  Flurries and snow showers at times early.  Considerable cloudiness with skies becoming mostly clear later on.  Low 0 to 5 below.  Wind west around 10 mph.

.Sunday…  Partly sunny.  High 17 to 22.  Wind south to southwest at 10 to 15 mph.

.Sunday Night…  Mostly cloudy.  Flurries possible.  Low 0 to 5 below.  Wind becoming northwest at 10 to 20 mph.

.New Year’s Eve…  Flurries possible early, otherwise partly cloudy.  High 8 to 13.

.Monday Night…  Mostly clear.  Cold.  Low 11 below to 16 below.

.New Year’s Day…  Partly sunny.  Flurries possible.  High 10 to 15.

.Tuesday Night…  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 3 below to 8 below.

.Wednesday…  Snow showers or flurries possible.  Mostly cloudy.  High 10 to 15.

Normal temperatures for Today

High:  19
Low:    3

Sunrise Sunday:  7:54 AM CST
Sunset Sunday:   4:29 PM CST

Tim

/Issued 4:03 PM CST, Friday, December 28th, 2012/

-Snow depth map valid the Morning of December 28, 2012 per Midwest Regional Climate Center. 

Some decent snow depths showing up in Northeast Minnesota, especially along the North Shore and into the Arrowhead.  Might be a good weekend to head north to do some skiing or snowmobiling.

Today’s Weather Summary for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

A couple areas of high pressure were off to our west/north Today while a trough or two covered the Upper Midwest.  Light snow and flurries were common Today, especially around Lake Superior where some heavier snow showers continued as well, especially northeast of Two Harbors.  Snowfall accumulations of 3-8″ have been reported along the North Shore of Lake Superior with amounts of 2″ or less common over the remainder of the Northland.  Skies were partly sunny to mostly cloudy Today with high temperatures in the teens and 20s.  Winds were out of the east, north, or west at 5 to 15 mph.

-24 hour snowfall map ending the Morning of December 28, 2012.  Heaviest totals were in two areas…Southern Minnesota and in Northeast Minnesota.

Today’s Upper Level Analysis:

A westerly flow was in place across the Upper Midwest per water vapor satellite imagery and RAP model analysis with two disturbances passing through the region Today.  850mb temperatures as of 3 PM were right around -12C in Minnesota.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Short Term – Confidence:  High.

Tonight (December 28th)

Snow showers and flurries will continue Tonight, especially near Lake Superior.  Some of the snow showers could be heavy at times, mainly along the North Shore, or from around Two Harbors, to Silver Bay, Lutsen, and Grand Marais.  Partly to mostly cloudy skies are forecast with lows in the single digits and teens, but some Western/Northern locales could dip below zero if skies clear out enough later Tonight.  Winds will be from the north or west at 5 to 15 mph.

*Note:  A winter weather advisory remains in effect for Northern Lake and Cook Counties in Northeast Minnesota until 10 AM Saturday.  And for Southern Lake County in Northeast Minnesota until 4 AM Saturday.  (NWS Duluth)

Saturday and Saturday Night (December 29th)

Snow showers and flurries look to continue on Saturday with the greatest concentration found along the North Shore and Arrowhead regions.  Looks dry for Saturday Night.  Partly to mostly cloudy skies are expected this period with highs Tomorrow in the teens and 20s.  Lows Tomorrow Night will range from around 10 below to 10 above.  Winds from the west on Saturday will turn more southerly Saturday Night at 5 to 15 mph.

Extended Forecast – Confidence:  High.

Sunday through Tuesday (December 30th-January 1st)

The mildest day will be Sunday, after that will have to deal with another shot of cold air for Monday and Tuesday.  An area of low pressure is forecast to track along the Ontario-Minnesota border on Sunday with a cold front dropping SE through the Northland, this front and low could bring a few snow showers and flurries to Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin from Sunday into early Monday.  Looks mainly dry then for Monday Night and Tuesday.

High temperatures will be in the teens and 20s on Sunday with single digits and teens expected for Monday and Tuesday.  Lows Sunday Night will range from around 5 below to 15 above.  Lows Monday Night will be in the single digits to around 20 below.

Long Range Forecast – Confidence:  High.

(January 2nd-7th)

The trend of no major storms continue into early January.  The biggest attention grabber will be the arctic shot of air that is forecast to hit on the 2nd-3rd, moderating temperatures will then occur from the 4th-7th with near to even above average temperatures expected by next weekend the way it looks now.  May have to deal with the occasional weak clipper system which could dust the Northland with snow, but again there won’t be any big storms in our area just yet.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR

.Tonight…  Light snow and flurries at times.  Considerable cloudiness.  Low 10 to 15.  Wind variable around 10 mph.  Snowfall accumulations less than 1″.

.Saturday…  Partly sunny.  Flurries possible.  High 20 to 25.  Wind west to southwest at 10 to 15 mph.

.Saturday Night…  Mostly clear.  Low 3 below to 2 above.  Wind southwest around 10 mph.

.Sunday…  Partly sunny.  High 17 to 22.

.Sunday Night…  Mostly cloudy.  Flurries possible.  Low 0 to 5.

.Monday…  Flurries possible early.  Partly sunny.  High 10 to 15.

.Monday Night…  Mostly clear.  Low 5 below to 10 below.

.Tuesday…  Partly cloudy.  High 7 to 12.

Normal temperatures for Today

High:  20
Low:    3

Sunrise Saturday:  7:54 AM CST
Sunset Saturday:   4:29 PM CST

Tim 

/Issued 11:01 AM CST, Friday, December 28th, 2012/

*Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect through Saturday Morning for areas northeast of Duluth.  More information below.

Source:  National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota.

*WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY*

Location:  The Arrowhead of Minnesota including Northern Cook and Northern Lake Counties and the city of Isabella.

Timing:  Until 10 AM Saturday.

Discussion:  Snow showers will continue through Saturday Morning.  An additional 2-5″ of accumulation is possible.  Storm total accumulations will vary quite a bit and will range from 3 to as much as 10″.

Winds and visibility:  Winds will remain light.  Visibility will drop to under a mile a times due to the falling snow.

Impacts:  Roads and sidewalks will be snow covered and slippery.

*WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY*

Location:  A portion of the North Shore of Lake Superior in Northeast Minnesota including Southern Cook County and the cities of Tofte…Lutsen…and Grand Marais.

Timing:  Until 10 AM Saturday.

Discussion:  Snow showers will continue through Saturday Morning.  An additional 2-5″ of accumulation is possible.  Storm total accumulations will range from 3 to as much as 10″.

Winds and visibility:  Winds will remain light.  Visibility will drop to under a mile at times due to the falling snow.

Impacts:  Roads and sidewalks will be snow covered and slippery.

*WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY*

Location:  A portion of the North Shore of Lake Superior in Northeast Minnesota including Southern Lake County and the cities of Two Harbors…and Silver Bay.

Timing:  Until 4 AM Saturday.

Discussion:  Snow showers will continue through early Saturday Morning.  An additional 2-4″ of accumulation is possible.  Storm total accumulations will range from 3 to as much as 10″.

Winds and visibility:  Winds will remain light.  Visibility will drop to under a mile at times due to the falling snow.

Impacts:  Roads and sidewalks will be snow covered and slippery.

*Preliminary snowfall report for December 27-28, 2012*

Beaver Bay, MN (Lake County)  8.5″
Silver Bay, MN (Lake County)  6.5″
Ely, MN (St. Louis County)  4.0″
6 W of Two Harbors, MN (St. Louis County)  3.2″

3 W of Bayfield, WI (Bayfield County)  3.0″
Larsmont, MN (Lake County)  2.5″
Culver, MN (St. Louis County)  2.0″
Brimson, MN (St. Louis County)  1.3″

Alborn, MN (St. Louis County)  1.0″
Embarrass, MN (St. Louis County)  1.0″

2 WNW of Duluth, MN (St. Louis County)  2.1″ measured in Duluth Heights.
6 NW of Duluth, MN (St. Louis County)  1.5″ official NWS total.

Tim

/Issued 3:35 PM CST, Thursday, December 27th, 2012/

-Updated winter weather headlines for the Northland.  A winter weather advisory continues for Southern Lake County MN until Noon Friday.  There’s also a new winter weather advisory for Bayfield County WI until Noon Friday.  Be prepared for snow covered roads in the advisory areas.  More details below.

With January fast approaching, here’s what the LRC is forecasting for Duluth, Minnesota.

Mean temperature for January:  13.2F
Average:  10.2F
Departure:  +3.0F

Number of days with a low temperature of 0F or colder:  10

Using the LRC, the warmest period during January looks to be the 8th-13th with another spell of mild temperatures occurring between the 23rd-30th, although the 1st stretch of warmth looks more impressive compared to the one toward the end of the month.

How’s the LRC doing for December?

Mean temperature:  15.1F
Thru the 26th:  The average December temperature was 19.7F

Number of days with a low temperature of 0F or colder:  6.  Actual total so far:  4

*Preliminary snowfall report for December 27, 2012*
Source:  National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota

1 NE of Finland, MN (Lake County)  5.8″ measured at Wolf Ridge.
2 ENE of Silver Bay, MN (Lake County)  4.0″
13 N of Two Harbors, MN (Lake County)  2.5″
3 SW of Silver Bay, MN (Lake County)  2.5″
5 N of Bayfield, WI (Bayfield County)  1.5″
Split Rock Lighthouse, MN (Lake County)  1.0″

Today’s Weather Summary for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

High pressure of 1028mb remained over Ontario Today while an upper air disturbance approaches from the Western High Plains region.  Partly sunny to mostly cloudy skies were found in the Northland Today.  Lake effect snow showers have been affecting parts of the North and South Shore of Lake Superior with new snowfall accumulations since late last night ranging from 1-5″.  High temperatures Today were in the teens and 20s with variable to east winds at around 10 mph.

Today’s Upper Level Analysis:

An upper trough covered the Northern Plains with a well defined disturbance churning E-NE along the South Dakota/Nebraska state line.  850mb temperatures as of 3 PM ranged from -10 to -12C in Minnesota.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Short Term – Confidence:  High.

Tonight through Friday Night (December 27th-28th)

Light snow and flurries will occur at times through this period due to an upper level trough which will move into the Upper Midwest.  Cold temperatures rushing over Lake Superior combined with smaller meso-scale features will continue to produce lake effect snow showers along the North and South Shore of Lake Superior.  The snow bands will likely diminish at times, and then reorganize once again.  Some of these snow showers could be heavy at times.  Mostly cloudy skies are expected this period with low temperatures Tonight and Friday Night in the teens and lower 20s, but some single digits are possible especially in far Northern Minnesota.  Highs on Friday will be in the teens and 20s.  Winds will be out of the east, north, or west at 5 to 10 mph.

Total snowfall accumulations by Friday Night:

4-8″ from Two Harbors-Silver Bay-Lutsen-and Grand Marais with locally higher amounts possible, especially between Silver Bay and Grand Marais.

2-5″ in Northern Bayfield County in Northwest Wisconsin, including the cities of Port Wing, Cornucopia and Bayfield.

A dusting to 2″ for the Iron Range, Highway 2 corridor, the Twin Ports, Brainerd Lakes, I-35 corridor, and most of Northwest Wisconsin.

Note:  A winter weather advisory remains in effect for Southern Lake County in Northeast Minnesota until Noon Friday.  Bayfield County in Northwest Wisconsin is also under a winter weather advisory until Noon Friday per National Weather Service Duluth.

Extended Forecast – Confidence:  High.

Saturday through Monday (December 29th-31st)

Flurries or snow showers could persist into Saturday with dry weather for Saturday Night.  Another system could bring some flurries or snow showers to Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin for Sunday and Monday.  High temperatures will be in the teens and 20s Saturday and Sunday with single digits and teens for Monday.  Low temperatures Saturday Night will range from around 10 below to 5 above.  Lows Sunday Night are forecast to be in the single digits below to around 10 above.

Long Range Forecast – Confidence:  High.

(January 1st-6th)

Near to below average temperatures are forecast from the 1st-3rd with temperatures at or above normal from the 4th-6th.  This period looks pretty tranquil at least in the major storm department, but we could get hit by a weak clipper or two which could dust the area with snow.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR

.Tonight…  Mostly cloudy.  Light snow and flurries at times.  Low 12 to 17.  Wind variable around 10 mph.  Snowfall accumulations less than 1″.

.Friday…  Light snow and flurries at times.  Considerable cloudiness.  High 23 to 28.  Wind variable around 10 mph.  Snowfall accumulations less than 1″.

.Friday Night…  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Flurries.  Low 13 to 18.  Wind west around 10 mph.

.Saturday…  Partly sunny.  Flurries possible.  High 20 to 25.

.Saturday Night…  Partly cloudy.  Low 3 below to 2 above.

.Sunday…  Partly sunny.  High 17 to 22.

.Sunday Night…  Mostly cloudy.  Flurries possible.  Low 0 to 5.

.Monday…  Partly sunny.  High 10 to 15.

Normal temperatures for Today

High:  20
Low:    4

Sunrise Friday:  7:54 AM CST
Sunset Friday:   4:28 PM CST

Tim