In Today’s blog: A recap of the severe weather outbreak from the past 2 days; Annual snowfall totals for cities in MN, WI and MI; Dangerously cold in the Northland Tonight-Friday AM with hazadous wind chills.

/Issued 2:38 PM CST, Thursday, January 31st, 2013/

-The map below represents the average number of tornadoes in January for the period 1991-2010.  

It really isn’t unusual to get an outbreak of severe thunderstorms at this time of year in Dixie Alley, or anywhere in the Southern U.S.  Severe weather isn’t as common though during the month of January the farther north you go, so when you start to see damaging wind, hail, and even tornado reports at this time of year in the Ohio Valley and Southern Great Lakes that is somewhat unusual, but remember what happened on January 7, 2008 in far Southern Wisconsin? 5 tornadoes! So, perhaps this is the new normal, a severe weather outbreak in January affecting areas outside of Dixie Alley. 

*Annual snowfall totals and the departure from average for select cities in the Upper Midwest*

Note:  Data is thru January 30, 2013.

Duluth, Minnesota

Total snowfall:  33.6″
Departure:  -19.1″

International Falls, Minnesota

Total snowfall:  49.0″
Departure:  +3.4″

Twin Cities, Minnesota

Total snowfall:  20.4″
Departure:  -13.3″

St. Cloud, Minnesota

Total snowfall:  20.5″
Departure:  -6.5″

Eau Claire, Wisconsin

Total snowfall:  26.9″
Departure:  -1.7″

Rochester, Minnesota

Total snowfall:  16.4″
Departure:  -14.6″

Fargo, North Dakota

Total snowfall:  22.7″
Departure:  -8.0″

Green Bay, Wisconsin

Total snowfall:  39.0″
Departure:  +9.1″

Milwaukee, Wisconsin

Total snowfall:  11.4″
Departure:  -16.1″

Madison, Wisconsin

Total snowfall:  32.1″
Departure:  +2.0″

Marquette, Michigan

Total snowfall:  88.5″
Departure:  -26.7″

Sault St. Marie, Michigan

Total snowfall:  89.3″
Departure:  +8.6″

A few things stand out from this list, one is the 2 distinct storm tracks we’ve seen this winter.  The southern systems have targeted Southern, Central and Eastern Wisconsin with heavy snowfall, and then we have the northern systems (clippers) favoring Northern Minnesota.  Another very interesting tidbit is Marquette, MI with 88.5″ of snow as of January 30th, yet their 26.7″ below average! Yeah, that truly is snow country!

Weather Tidbits:

*January will mark the 3rd month in a row with an above average monthly temperature at Duluth, Minnesota (Nov-Jan)

*January will also be the 2nd month in a row with above average precipitation at Duluth, Minnesota, yet both December and January were below average in terms of snowfall.  I guess you can thank the rain events we’ve seen this winter, the rainfall is the reason why we’ve seen above average amounts of precipitation last month and this month.

*781, that’s the 2-day preliminary severe weather total (Jan. 29-30, 2013) Tornado reports:  30; Severe wind reports:  738; Severe hail reports:  13.  Source:  Storm Prediction Center.

*January 29, 2013 severe weather reports.  Red=Tornado reports.  Blue=Wind damage reports.  Green=Hail reports.

*January 30, 2013 severe weather reports.

*WIND CHILL ADVISORY*
Source:  National Weather Service Duluth, MN

Location:  All of Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin, including the Counties of Koochiching MN…Itasca MN…Cass MN…Crow Wing MN…Aitkin MN…Pine MN…Carlton MN…St. Louis MN…Lake MN…Cook MN.  Douglas WI…Bayfield WI…Ashland WI…Iron WI…Burnett WI…Washburn WI…Sawyer WI…Price WI.

Some cities included in the advisory are:  International Falls MN…Grand Rapids MN…Walker MN…Brainerd MN…Aitkin MN…Hinckley MN…Cloquet MN…Duluth MN…Hibbing MN…Ely MN…Two Harbors MN…Silver Bay MN…Grand Marais MN…Superior WI…Bayfield WI…Ashland WI…Hurley WI…Siren WI…Spooner WI…Hayward WI…and Park Falls WI.

Timing:  6 PM CST This Evening until Noon CST Friday.

Impacts:  Wind chill values of 30 below to 40 below in Northern Minnesota and 20 below to 30 below in Northwest Wisconsin.  Frost bite can occur to exposed skin and lead to hypothermia if precautions are not taken.  Infants and the elderly are especially susceptible to the cold.

*LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING*
Source:  National Weather Service Duluth, MN

Location:  Iron County in Northwest Wisconsin including the cities of Hurley…Gile…and Upson.

Timing:  Until 6 AM CST Friday.

Discussion:  Lake effect snow showers, heavy at times will continue in the warning area Tonight and Friday Morning.  Visibilities will be reduced to less than one quarter mile at times in the heavier snow showers.  Areas of blowing snow will also continue.  Travel will be difficult with snow covered and slippery roads.  If you must travel use extreme caution and allow plenty of time to reach your destination.

Snowfall accumulations:  Total snowfall accumulations of 8-14″ are expected in Iron County with the greatest amounts along the Gogebic Range.

Today’s Weather Summary for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Arctic high pressure ridge averaging 1032mb stretched from the Northern Rockies to the Central Plains.  A frigid airmass continues to spill into the Northland Today with high temperatures of zero to around 10 above with northwest winds at 10 to 25 mph.  Skies were partly to mostly cloudy Today and there’s been some snow showers and flurries, especially near Lake Superior with the heaviest snow confined to Iron County in Northwest Wisconsin.

*Minnesota snow depth map as of January 29, 2013 per MNDNR.  Snow depths are greatest in Northern Minnesota with anywhere from 8-18″+ on the ground.  Southern Minnesota continues to have little to no snow on the ground.

Today’s Upper Level Analysis:

A powerful upper level trough with height falls of 180-330 meters covered Eastern Canada, Eastern Great Lakes, and Northeast U.S. per RAP model analysis.  A northwest flow was in place behind this storm across the Upper Midwest.  850mb temperatures as of 2 PM were around -24C in Minnesota.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Short Term – Confidence:  High.

Tonight (January 31st)

Skies will become clear to partly cloudy during the night as high pressure moves closer to our area.  Flurries or snow showers will end This Evening except in Ashland and Iron Counties where they will persist most of the night.  Low temperatures will range from the 20s and 30s below across Northern Minnesota to the single digits and teens below to single digits above zero in Northwest Wisconsin.  Winds will be out of the northwest at 5 to 15 mph.

*RAP model (18z run) Low temperature forecast for Tonight, yup going to be a frigid night in Minnesota with widespread 20s and 30s below zero by daybreak.


Friday and Friday Night (February 1st)

High pressure will be in control of our weather this period, expect partly cloudy skies Tomorrow with highs of 10 below to the single digits above zero.  Partly to mostly cloudy skies are forecast Friday Night with a few flurries or snow showers possible as a weak disturbance passes through the Upper Midwest.  Lows Tomorrow Night will be in the single digits, teens, and 20s below zero.  Winds will be out of the west or north at 5 to 15 mph.

Extended Forecast – Confidence:  High.

Saturday through Monday (February 2nd-4th)

2 clippers may affect the Northland during this period.  The 1st would be on Saturday, the 2nd sometime late Sunday Night or Monday.  Light snow and flurries will be possible in our area on both those days with a few inches of accumulation possible, depending on the tracks of those systems.  High temperatures are forecast to be in the single digits and teens Saturday through Monday with lows Saturday Night in the single digits, teens, and 20s below zero.  Lows Sunday Night will be in the single digits below to around 10 above zero.

Long Range Forecast – Confidence:  High.

(February 5th-10th)

There are 2 systems showing up in the long range that could bring at least a little bit of snow to Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin.  February 5th would be the 1st one, and then sometime around the 7th-8th would be the 2nd system.  Temperatures should be fairly close to average through this period.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR

*WIND CHILL ADVISORY*
Timing:  6 PM This Evening until 12 PM Friday.

.Tonight…  Bitterly cold.  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Scattered flurries early.  Low 17 below to 23 below.  Wind northwest at 5 to 15 mph.  Wind chill values of 25 below to 35 below.

.Friday…  Very cold.  Partly cloudy.  High 3 below to 2 above.  Wind west at 5 to 15 mph.  Morning wind chill values of 25 below to 35 below.

.Friday Night…  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Flurries possible.  Low 8 below to 13 below.  Wind west around 10 mph.

.Saturday…  Mostly cloudy.  Late afternoon snow showers or flurries possible.  High 7 to 12.

.Saturday Night…  Mostly cloudy.  Evening snow showers or flurries possible.  Low 5 below to 10 below.

.Sunday…  Mostly sunny.  High 5 to 10.

.Sunday Night…  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Light snow or flurries possible late.  Low 0 to 5 below.

.Monday…  Mostly cloudy.  Light snow or flurries possible.  High 10 to 15.

Normal temperatures for Today

High:  20
Low:    2

Sunrise Friday:  7:33 AM CST
Sunset Friday:   5:12 PM CST

Tim



 

Cold wave thru Friday Night; Widespread teens and 20s below Friday AM; A few inches of snow possible late Tonight-Thursday especially northeast-east of Duluth.

/Issued 3:10 PM CST, Wednesday, January 30th, 2013/

Today’s Weather Summary for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Strong low pressure of 986mb has moved into Western lower Michigan as of mid-Afternoon.  Gusty winds and a significant amount of snow and blowing snow has been occurring Today to the west of this storm, from Central Iowa to Eastern Wisconsin to Central Upper Michigan.  Our area was too far NW of this storm to see any major snowfall Today, but some light snow did affect Southeast portions of Northwest Wisconsin, generally in Sawyer and Price Counties.  Lake effect snow showers also occurred Today along the South Shore of Lake Superior from Douglas to Iron County.  Colder air continues to push into the Northland Today with highs in the single digits and teens.  Winds were out of the north or west at 10 to 25 mph.

Today’s Upper Level Analysis:

A powerful upper level trough with widespread height falls of 120-180 meters is moving through the Upper Midwest, Great Lakes, and Central Plains Today per water vapor satellite imagery and RAP model analysis.  A shift in the upper level winds will take place as this storm departs, we saw a SW flow for a few days, now will get back into a NW flow beginning Tomorrow.  850mb temperatures as of 2 PM ranged from -12 to -20C in Minnesota.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Short Term – Confidence:  High.

Tonight (January 30th)

Arctic high pressure remains well to our W/NW while strong low pressure reaches Quebec.  A northwest flow of cold Canadian air will continue to pour into the Northland Tonight along with partly to mostly cloudy skies.  Low temperatures will be in the single digits and teens below to low teens above zero with northwest winds at 10 to 20 mph.  There will also be some snow showers and flurries through the night with accumulations of less than 1″ by daybreak. 

Thursday and Thursday Night (January 31st)

We close out the month of January on a cold note.  Partly to mostly cloudy skies are forecast this period with some more snow showers and flurries, but again like Tonight accumulations will remain less than 1″.  High pressure of arctic origin will build into the Upper Midwest this period with highs Tomorrow in the single digits below to low teens above zero.  Lows Tomorrow Night will be in the single digits, teens, and 20s below zero.  Winds during this period will be out of the northwest at 10 to 20 mph.

Note:  The high resolution computer models are hinting at a standing wave type feature which may lead to a band of snow that affects portions of the North Shore and South Shore of Lake Superior beginning later Tonight, and then continuing through at least early Thursday Afternoon.  If this feature does develop, there could be a band of 1-3″ of snow that accumulates by Thursday Afternoon mainly from around Silver Bay toward the Two Harbors area, and then along the South Shore, from just outside the city of Superior, toward Pattison Park and Patzau.

Note:  A lake effect snow advisory remains in effect until 6 AM CST Friday for Iron County in Northwest Wisconsin including the cities of Hurley, Upson, and Gile.  Total snowfall accumulations of 4-9″ are possible in the advisory area by Friday Morning.  Expect snow covered and slippery roads and reduced visibility to a quarter mile at times in the heavier bursts of snow.  Some blowing snow will also occur.  Use extreme caution if you have travel plans across Iron County and be sure to allow extra time to reach your destination.

Extended Forecast – Confidence:  High.

Friday through Sunday (February 1st-3rd)

Friday looks dry during the day, and then will see some snow showers or flurries Friday Night into Saturday as two disturbances pass through the region.  Snowfall accumulations could reach 1-2″ in spots, especially during the day Saturday.  Dry weather returns Saturday Night into Sunday, and then by Sunday Night the next clipper may begin to impact our area with some light snow.  

The coldest day looks to be Friday with highs of 10 below to 0 in the Northland.  Lows Friday Night will be in the single digits, teens, and 20s below.  Highs Saturday and Sunday are forecast to be in the single digits and teens with lows Saturday Night in the single digits and teens below zero.

Long Range Forecast – Confidence:  High.

(February 4th-9th)

1 or 2 clippers may bring some snow to Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin early next week (4th-5th)  Also gonna have to watch the wind direction as there could be some lake enhanced snow either for the North Shore or South Shore, or both Shores early next week.  Another possible weather system between the 7th-9th could bring some additional snow to parts of our area.  Temperatures are forecast to be pretty close to normal through this period.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR

.Tonight…  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Snow showers and flurries at times.  Accumulations less than 1″.  Low 0 to 5 below.  Wind northwest at 10 to 20 mph.

.Thursday…  Snow showers and flurries at times.  Accumulations less than 1″.  Considerable cloudiness.  High 5 to 10.  Wind northwest at 10 to 20 mph.

.Thursday Night…  Very cold.  Becoming mostly clear.  Low 15 below to 20 below.  Wind west to northwest at 5 to 15 mph.

.Friday…  Very cold.  Partly cloudy.  High 0 to 5.

.Friday Night…  Mostly cloudy.  Snow showers or flurries possible.  Low 8 below to 13 below.

.Saturday…  Mostly cloudy.  Light snow or flurries possible, mainly during the Afternoon.  High 7 to 12.

.Saturday Night…  Partly cloudy.  Low 5 below to 10 below.

.Sunday…  Partly cloudy.  High 10 to 15.

Normal temperatures for Today

High:  20
Low:     2

Sunrise Thursday:  7:34 AM CST
Sunset Thursday:   5:11 PM CST

Tim

 

 

Snowfall report from last night; What does February have in store for the Twin Ports? Warm, cold, snowy? LRC outlook for February in Today’s blog.

/Issued 3:05 PM CST, Tuesday, January 29th, 2013/

*Total snowfall map for January 28-29, 2013.  Heaviest snow targeted Western/Northern Minnesota, or northwest of Duluth.

*Total snowfall from the system on January 27, 2013.  This one gave Central-Northern Wisconsin the greatest amounts of snow, or southeast of Duluth.

Snowfall report for January 28-29, 2013
Source:  National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota

Dixon Lake, MN (Itasca County)  11.0″
1 WNW of the town of Cass Lake, MN (Cass County)  10.5″
Bigfork, MN (Itasca County)  10.0″
5 S of Littlefork, MN (Koochiching County)  8.5″
3 S of Northome, MN (Itasca County)  8.3″

Kettle Falls, MN (Koochiching County)  8.0″
2 SSW of Kabetogama, MN (St. Louis County)  8.0″
1 S of Walker, MN (Cass County)  7.0″
Togo, MN (Itasca County)  6.5″
International Falls, MN (Koochiching County)  6.5″

3 E of Orr, MN (St. Louis County)  6.3″
3 W of Indus, MN (Koochiching County)  6.1″
12 N of Grand Rapids, MN (Itasca County)  5.5″
Deer River, MN (Itasca County)  5.5″
8 W of Remer, MN (Cass County)  4.0″
8 ENE of Cook, MN (St. Louis County)  4.0″

Ice and sleet accumulation report for January 29, 2013
Source:  National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota

Bayfield, WI (Bayfield County)  0.20″
Mercer, WI (Iron County)  0.13″
1 WSW of Saxon, WI (Iron County)  0.10″
1 E of Alborn, MN (St. Louis County)  0.03″

Note:  It’s been another odd winter in Duluth, Minnesota.  Snowfall has been below average so far, but precipitation has been above average, here are the latest numbers.

January precipitation total (thru the 28th)  1.35″
Departure:  +0.47″

January snowfall total (thru the 28th)  9.1″
Departure:  -8.8″

Winter precipitation total (Since Dec. 1)  2.79″
Departure:  +0.70″

Annual snowfall total:  33.6″
Departure:  -18.1″

International Falls, Minnesota has had above average snowfall this month and for the winter so far.

January snowfall total:  22.7″
Departure:  Around +6.0″

Annual snowfall total:  48.0″
Departure:  Around +3.0″

Note:  Snow depths are quite impressive in parts of Northern Minnesota, here are a few of the higher values as of January 29, 2013.

Kabetogama:  25″
International Falls:  20″
Kettle Falls:  19″
Cass Lake:  17″
Northome:  17″
3 E of Orr:  16″
Cook:  12″

February 2013 outlook for Duluth, Minnesota based off the LRC.  

Will the Twin Ports finally see a major winter storm next month?  Any 50 degree temperatures coming our way?  Lets take a look.

Coldest periods:  February 1-5, 11-15, and 22-24 (give or take a day)

Number of days with a low temperature of 0F or colder:  2
Number of days with snow (0.1″ or greater)  10
Number of 1.0″ or greater snowfalls:  4

Snowiest periods:  1st-7th, and 22nd-24th.

Total snowfall for February:  17.2″
Normal:  12.4″
Departure:  +4.8″

Mean temperature for February:  17.7F
Normal:  15.1F
Departure:  +2.6 degrees

A significant thaw is forecast to occur toward the end of February, most likely starting on the 27th and continuing thru the 1st few days in March, this is when temperatures could flirt with 50 degrees in Duluth, at the very least were looking at temperatures in the 40s.

So, no go for a big winter storm during the month of February, but we can expect more minor events, possibly even a medium range event.

Today’s Weather Summary for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Low pressure of 998mb was centered in Central Ontario with a 998mb low in Eastern Oklahoma.  Partly sunny to mostly cloudy skies occurred Today in the Northland with 1 final day with unseasonably mild temperatures.  Highs were in the 20s and 30s with west or northwest winds at 10 to 20 mph.

Today’s Upper Level Analysis:

A very strong upper level trough is moving into the Plains with the strongest core of the trough embedded within the southern stream which was over the Southern Rockies with height falls of 90-180 meters, while widespread height falls of 60-90 meters covering the Central Plains, Upper Midwest and Great Lakes per RAP model analysis.  Powerful jet stream winds were found on the backside and ahead of the H5 trough Today with wind speeds of 120-140 knots to the west of the trough, and 150-180 knots along and east of the trough from Texas to Minnesota.  850mb temperatures as of 3 PM ranged from -4 to +4C in Southern Minnesota to -6 to -10C in Central, Western, and Northern Minnesota.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Short Term – Confidence:  High.

Tonight (January 29th)

Partly to mostly cloudy skies are forecast with scattered flurries possible.  Lows will range from the single digits below to around 10 above zero in Northern Minnesota to the single digits and teens above in Northwest Wisconsin.  Winds will be out of the northwest at 10 to 20 mph.

Wednesday and Wednesday Night (January 30th)

A powerful area of low pressure which was over Eastern Oklahoma late This Afternoon will head northeast, reaching Lake Huron by Tomorrow Afternoon, pressures are forecast to drop to around 977-983mb as this low reaches the Eastern Great Lakes.  Heavy snow associated with this storm will stay southeast of the Northland, but cold NW winds on the backside of this storm will affect our area along with some possible flurries and snow showers.  Highs Tomorrow will be in the single digits and teens with lows Tomorrow Night in the single digits, teens, and 20s below zero.  Winds will be out of the northwest during this period at 10 to around 25 mph.

Extended Forecast – Confidence:  High.

Thursday through Saturday (January 31st-February 2nd)

Flurries or snow showers are possible on Thursday in Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin but accumulations should remain under 1″.  Looks dry Thursday Night into Friday, and then we could see some light snow or flurries at times Friday Evening through Saturday as 1 or 2 disturbances/clippers drop SE out of Western Canada.  The coldest days look to be Thursday and Friday with daytime highs in the single digits below to single digits above zero.  Highs on Saturday will be in the single digits and teens.  Lows Thursday Night and Friday Night are forecast to be in the single digits, teens, and 20s below.

Note:  A *Lake Effect Snow Advisory* has been issued by the National Weather Service for Iron County in Northwest Wisconsin, this includes the cities of Gile, Upson, and Hurley.  The advisory is in effect from 6 AM CST Wednesday until 6 AM CST Friday.  Total snowfall accumulations of 4-9″ are possible between Wednesday Morning and Friday Morning.

Long Range Forecast – Confidence:  High.

(February 3rd-8th)

Near normal temperatures are expected during this period.  NW flow dominates, at least through the 5th or 6th.  The Northland could be affected by a clipper early next week with at least a little bit of snow possible around the 4th.  Another system could take aim at our area sometime between the 7th-8th.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR

.Tonight…  Considerable cloudiness.  Low 5 to 10.  Wind northwest at 10 to 20 mph.

.Wednesday…  Considerable cloudiness.  Flurries possible.   High 10 to 15.  Wind northwest at 10 to 20 mph.

.Wednesday Night…  Mostly cloudy.  Flurries or snow showers possible.  Low 5 below to 10 below.  Wind northwest at 10 to 15 mph.

.Thursday…  Mostly cloudy.  Flurries or snow showers possible.  High 0 to 5.

.Thursday Night…  Becoming partly cloudy.  Low 15 below to 20 below.

.Friday…  Partly cloudy.  High 0 to 5.

.Friday Night…  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Snow showers or flurries possible.  Low 5 below to 10 below.

.Saturday…  Mostly cloudy.  Snow showers or flurries possible.  High 7 to 12.

Normal temperatures for Today

High:  20
Low:    2

Sunrise Wednesday:  7:35 AM CST
Sunset Wednesday:   5:09 PM CST

Tim

 

 

 
 

 

 
 

Winter Storm Warnings and Advisories cover the Northland for Tonight and Tuesday; Heaviest snow stays NW of Duluth with this one; Isolated t’storms possible late Tonight in NW Wisconsin. Snowfall report from Sunday Night’s system included in this post.

/Issued 4:08 PM CST, Monday, January 28th, 2013/

-Here’s the 4″ or greater snowfall potential for Tonight and Tuesday per HPC.

Red=High Risk
Green=Moderate Risk
Blue=Slight Risk

-SREF 15z 1/28/13 snowfall forecast for Tonight and Tuesday.  Western and Northern Minnesota will be in the favored zone with this storm with a swath of 4-8″ of snow possible for those areas.  Snow totals will drop-off dramatically once you get to the Twin Ports, North Shore and Northwest Wisconsin where 1-2″ of snow is possible.

Snowfall report for January 27, 2013
Source:  National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota

Washburn, WI (Bayfield County)  6.0″
Gile, WI (Iron County)  5.5″
Upson, WI (Iron County)  5.5″
Butternut, WI (Ashland County)  5.5″
Sarona, WI (Washburn County)  5.5″
Glidden, WI (Ashland County)  5.0″

2 W of Hayward, WI (Sawyer County)  4.5″
2 E of Odanah, WI (Ashland County)  4.0″
Shell Lake, WI (Washburn County)  4.0″
Ashland, WI (Ashland County)  3.6″
Danbury, WI (Burnett County)  3.5″
Sandstone, MN (Pine County)  3.0″

3 W of Phillips, WI (Price County)  3.0″
Gordon, WI (Douglas County)  2.8″
2 SW of Hinckley, MN (Pine County)  2.3″
8 ESE of Pine City, MN (Pine County)  2.3″
Beaver Bay, MN (Lake County)  2.0″
4 S of Sawyer, MN (Carlton County)  1.4″

5 NW of Duluth, MN (St. Louis County)  1.8″ official NWS total.

*WINTER STORM WARNING*

Location:  Parts of Northern Minnesota including the Borderland.  Counties included in the warning are Koochiching…Itasca…Northern Cass and Northern St. Louis.

Some cities included in the warning are:  International Falls…Northome…Bigfork…Togo…Grand Rapids…Cass Lake…Walker…Crane Lake…and Ely.

Timing:  Until 12 PM CST Tuesday.

Discussion:  Snow will develop This Evening and continue into Tuesday Morning before ending.  Snow will be heaviest Tonight.  The snow could start out as freezing rain or sleet This Evening.

Snowfall accumulations:  5-8″.

Winds and visibility:  Winds of 5 to 15 mph.  Visibility less than one quarter mile at times in the heavier snow.

Impacts:  Roads will turn snow covered and slippery with very difficult driving conditions expected Tonight and on Tuesday.  Delay travel if possible.

A winter storm warning for heavy snow means heavy snowfall accumulation is expected.  Snowfall rates of one inch or greater are possible.  Expect snow and ice covered roads and reduced visibility.  If you must travel use extreme caution and allow extra time to reach your destination.  Let someone know your travel route and expected arrival time and have a working cell phone in case you become stranded.  Keep a winter survival kit in your vehicle including a flashlight, food, and water.  If you choose to travel be aware that you may become stranded and that it may take many hours for help to arrive.

*WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY*

Location:  Parts of Eastcentral and Northeast Minnesota including the Brainerd Lakes, I35 corridor, Iron Range, North Shore, and Arrowhead.  Counties included in the advisory are:  Southern Cass…Crow Wing…Aitkin…Carlton…Central and Southern St. Louis…Lake…and Cook.

Some cities included in the advisory are:  Leader…Brainerd…Hill City…Aitkin…McGregor…Moose Lake…Cromwell…Cloquet…Duluth…Cotton…Hibbing…Two Harbors…Silver Bay…Isabella…Finland…Lutsen…and Grand Marais.

Timing:  Until 12 PM CST Tuesday.

Discussion:  Periods of snow, sleet, and freezing rain along with areas of fog are expected Tonight with a changeover to snow taking place on Tuesday.

Snow and ice accumulations:  1-3″ of snow with ice accumulations less than 0.10″.

Impacts:  Roads will become slippery and snow covered due to the freezing rain and snow.  Visibilities will be reduced to less than a mile at times.  Use extreme caution if you have travel plans in the advisory area Tonight and Tuesday.  Be sure to slow down and allow extra time to reach your destination.

*FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY*

Location:  A small part of Eastcentral Minnesota and all of Northwest Wisconsin.  Counties included in the advisory are:  Pine MN…Douglas WI…Bayfield WI…Ashland WI…Iron WI…Burnett WI…Washburn WI…Sawyer WI…and Price WI.

Some cities included in the advisory are:  Pine City MN…Hinckley MN…Superior WI…Solon Springs WI…Bayfield WI…Butternut WI…Ashland WI…Glidden WI…Hurley WI…Danbury WI…Minong WI…Spooner WI…Shell Lake WI…Hayward WI…Winter WI…Park Falls WI…and Phillips WI.

Timing:  12 AM CST Tonight until 10 AM CST Tuesday.

Discussion:  Periods of freezing rain and freezing drizzle along with areas of fog will occur Tonight and Tuesday Morning.  In addition to this, isolated thunderstorms are possible during the Overnight hours.

Ice accumulations:  Generally around 0.10″, but locally higher amounts are possible.

Impacts:  Freezing rain will cause slippery road surfaces.  Use extreme caution if you have travel plans and be sure to allow extra time to reach your destination. 

-Storm track forecast per HPC.  Interesting that the system on Sunday gave NW Wisconsin the heaviest snow.  Tonight’s system will give Western/Northern Minnesota the heaviest snow.  A 3rd storm could bring a swath of significant snow to parts of Southern/Eastern Wisconsin on Wednesday.

Today’s Weather Summary for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Low pressure of 998mb was centered along the Colorado/Kansas border as of 4 PMA mild, but murky day in the Northland with overcast skies and areas of fog and freezing drizzle.  High temperatures were in the lower to middle 30s with south or east winds at around 10 mph.

Today’s Upper Level Analysis:

A deep upper trough covered the Western U.S. with a SW flow in place across the Plains and Great Lakes per water vapor satellite imagery and RAP model analysis.  850mb temperatures as of 4 PM ranged from +2 to +6C in Central, Eastern, and Southern Minnesota to 0 to -2C in Northern Minnesota.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Short Term – Confidence:  Medium.

Tonight (January 28th)

Snow, heavy at times will develop This Evening and continue Overnight in Northern Minnesota.  A mix of snow, sleet, and freezing rain/drizzle will occur at times from Eastcentral into Northeast Minnesota, and in all of Northwest Wisconsin.  Isolated thunderstorms are even possible late Tonight, mainly in Northwest Wisconsin, including the Hayward Lakes, Park Falls, Ogema areas.  Tonight will also feature areas of dense fog.  Low temperatures will be in the 20s to lower 30s with south, east, or north winds at 5 to 15 mph.

Tuesday and Tuesday Night (January 29th)

Low pressure will move from Western Kansas to Northern Wisconsin to just north of Lake Superior between Tonight and Tuesday Evening.

Snow will occur Tomorrow Morning in Northern Minnesota with Afternoon flurries and snow showers.  A mix of snow, sleet, and freezing rain/drizzle will continue at times Tomorrow Morning in Eastern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin with a changeover to light snow and flurries by the Afternoon.  Highs Tomorrow will be in the 20s and 30s with winds out of the north or west at 10 to 15 mph.

Flurries are possible throughout the Northland Tuesday Night with lows in the single digits below to around 10 above.  Winds will be out of the north or west at 10 to 20 mph.

Extended Forecast – Confidence:  High.

Wednesday through Friday (January 30th-February 1st)

A powerful storm system will track NE out of the Southern Plains and into the Eastern Great Lakes on Wednesday.  Precipitation associated with that storm is forecast to remain southeast of the Northland.  Gusty NW winds will be found in our area Wednesday and Thursday with arctic air moving back in along with the possibility for some lake effect snow along the South Shore of Lake Superior.  High temperatures on Wednesday will be in the single digits and teens.  Highs Thursday and Friday are forecast to be in the single digits below to single digits above zero.  Lows Wednesday Night will range from the teens below to around 10 above.  Lows Thursday Night will be in the single digits, teens, and 20s below.

Long Range Forecast – Confidence:  High.

(February 2nd-7th)

A northwest flow will be in place during the majority of this period.  Clippers embedded within this flow may affect the Northland with a bit of snow every now and then, but no major winter storms are expected during this period.  Near to below average temperatures are forecast through this period.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR

*WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR DULUTH UNTIL 12 PM CST WEDNESDAY*

*FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FOR SUPERIOR FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM TUESDAY*

.Tonight…  Areas of fog with periods of freezing drizzle, freezing rain, and sleet.  Some snow is also possible.  Low 25 to 30.  Wind east around 10 mph.

.Tuesday…  Areas of fog early.  Some light freezing drizzle, freezing rain, sleet, and snow changing over to light snow and flurries.  Total ice accumulations less than 0.05″.  Total snowfall accumulations of 1-2″ possible.  High 30 to 35.  Wind becoming west to northwest at 10 to 15 mph.

.Tuesday Night…  Mostly cloudy.  Flurries possible.  Low 5 to 10.  Wind northwest at 10 to 15 mph.

.Wednesday…  Mostly cloudy.  Flurries possible.  High 10 to 15.

.Wednesday Night…  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 8 below to 13 below.

.Thursday…  Partly sunny.  High 0 to 5.

.Thursday Night…  Mostly clear.  Low 15 below to 20 below.

.Friday…  Partly cloudy.  High 0 to 5.

Normal temperatures for Today

High:  20
Low:    2

Sunrise Tuesday:  7:36 AM CST
Sunset Tuesday:   5:08 PM CST

Tim

Winter Storm Watch for areas west-northwest of Duluth; Expect Warnings and Advisories to be issued by later Today.

/Issued 11:04 AM CST, Monday, January 28th, 2013/

…Significant snow accumulations possible This Evening thru Tuesday in parts of Northcentral and Northeast Minnesota…  At this time it appears that the heaviest snowfall accumulations will be west and northwest of the Twin Ports.

Areas shaded in blue are under a winter storm watch for Tonight and Tuesday per National Weather Service Duluth.

*WINTER STORM WATCH*
Source:  National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota

Location:  Portions of Northcentral and Northeast Minnesota, including the Brainerd Lakes, Iron Range, Arrowhead, and Borderland.  Counties included in the watch are:  Koochiching…Itasca…Cass…Crow Wing…Northern Aitkin…Central and Northern St. Louis…Northern Lake…and Northern Cook.

Some cities included in the watch are:  International Falls…Bigfork…Grand Rapids…Cass Lake…Walker…Leader…Brainerd…Hill City…Hibbing…Ely…Crane Lake…and Orr.

Timing:  5 PM CST This Evening through Tuesday Afternoon.

Discussion:  Snow will begin late This Afternoon or early This Evening with snow continuing Overnight and into Tuesday Morning before ending from southwest to northeast Tuesday Afternoon.  Snow could become heavy at times Tonight into Tuesday Morning.  The snow could also be mixed with sleet or freezing rain, especially from the Brainerd Lakes through the Iron Range.

Winds and visibility:  Winds of 5 to 15 mph.  Visibility less than one quarter mile at times in the heavier snow.

Impacts:  Roads will become snow covered and slippery with very hazardous driving conditions expected for Tonight and Tuesday.

Snowfall accumulations:  5-7″ for International Falls…Orr…Crane Lake…Bigfork…and Cass Lake.  Slightly lesser amounts are expected for the Brainerd Lakes, Grand Rapids, Iron Range and Arrowhead where 3-5″ of snow is possible.

Ice accumulations:  Less than 0.05″

A winter storm watch means there is a potential for significant snow, sleet, or ice accumulations that may impact travel.  Continue to monitor later forecasts.

Tim