/Issued 3:37 PM CST, Thursday, February 28th, 2013/
-Here’s a look at the three month precipitation data (November 2012-January 2013) Note all of Minnesota had near average precipitation during that 3 month period with Northeast Minnesota in the Abnormally Moist category. It’s been a weird winter with snowfall below average in Duluth, but precipitation has been above average, again you can thank the multiple rain events we had in December and January for why were running above average in the precipitation department. (Souce, NOAA, NCDC)
Well, the end of winter Meteorologically speaking is almost over, as I type this blog we are just T-8 hours away from kicking off Meteorological spring or the period March through May.
-Duluth’s streak without any measurable precipitation ends at 4 consecutive days (February 24-27) This ties the November 4 day dry streak which occurred on the 13th-16th.
Could it be? A month that finishes with a below average temperature at Duluth, Minnesota? Going into Today, the temperature departure for February was at -0.6 degrees. If we finish the month below average, then it will be only the 3rd time doing so in the past 21 months! June 2011, October 2012 and possibly February 2013? Will know Tomorrow Morning.
Today’s Weather Summary for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin
High pressure of 1034mb was centered in Northern Ontario with a north/east wind occurring in our area Today. Colder 850mb temperatures moved into the Northland Today which caused lake clouds and some light flurries earlier This Morning along the North and South Shore of Lake Superior, otherwise skies were partly to mostly cloudy Today with wind speeds of 10 to 20 mph. High temperatures were cooler compared to previous days, but still right around average for the end of February with mid 20s to around 30 degrees.
Today’s Upper Level Analysis
An upper trough continued to cover the Great Lakes, Eastern Canada and Northeast U.S. per water vapor satellite imagery and RAP model analysis. 850mb temperatures as of 3 PM ranged from -8 to -10C in Minnesota.
Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin
Short Term – Confidence: High.
Tonight (February 28th)
Clear to partly cloudy skies will be found in our area Tonight with strong high pressure to our north. Lows will be in the single digits below to teens above zero with north or east winds at 5 to 15 mph.
Friday and Friday Night (March 1st)
High pressure stays put to our north/northeast. Dry this period with partly cloudy skies. Highs Tomorrow will mainly be in the 20s with lows Tomorrow Night in the single digits and teens below to single digits above zero. North or east winds are forecast this period at 5 to 15 mph.
Extended Forecast – Confidence: Medium.
Saturday through Monday (March 2nd-4th)
Dry Saturday and Sunday. Flurries are a possibility Saturday Night as a weak disturbance moves southeast into the Upper Midwest. Significant model differences arise for early next week. The 00z and 12z CANADIAN (which recently had an upgrade) is quite snowy early next week, but the other models including the EUROPEAN and GFS (outside of about 4-5 ensembles) remain dry. I’m thinking the drier solutions will verify, but since at least 1 model and a few of the ensembles show something different, the system for early next week will need to be monitored for possible shifts in the storm track. High temperatures in the 20s and 30s through this period with lows Saturday Night and Sunday Night in the single digits below to teens above zero.
Long Range Forecast – Confidence: Medium.
Looks mainly dry next Tuesday and Wednesday (5th-6th) Unless the CANADIAN model verifies, if that happens then early next week will be rather snowy in the Northland. Stay tuned! A possible system is looming for the 7th-9th, this one if it hits us could bring some snow or a mix of precipitation to the area. Near to below average temperatures through this period.
5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR
.Tonight… Partly cloudy. Low 8 to 13. Wind northeast at 5 to 15 mph.
.Friday… Partly cloudy. High 22 to 27. Wind northeast at 5 to 15 mph.
.Friday Night… Partly cloudy. Low 5 to 10. Wind variable around 10 mph.
.Saturday… Partly cloudy. High 25 to 30.
.Saturday Night… Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 7 to 12.
.Sunday… Partly cloudy. High 25 to 30.
.Sunday Night… Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 10 to 15.
.Monday… Partly sunny. High 27 to 32.
Normal temperatures for Today
Sunrise Friday: 6:48 AM CST
Sunset Friday: 5:55 PM CST