Happy Easter! Colder temps and gusty NW winds on tap for Easter Sunday-flurries are also possible.

/Issued 8:06 PM CDT, Saturday, March 30th, 2013/

Rainfall report for March 30, 2013
Source:  National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota

Duluth, MN:  0.44″
Brainerd, MN:  0.14″
Grand Marais, MN:  0.22″
Hibbing, MN:  0.27″
Hayward, WI:  0.15″
Bruno, MN:  0.15″
3 W of Wright, MN:  0.31″
12 N of Grand Rapids, MN:  0.27″
Babbitt, MN:  0.21″
Floodwood, MN:  0.32″
4 E of Island Lake, MN:  0.31″
Finland, MN:  0.34″
Ashland, WI:  0.21″
Gurney, WI:  0.20″
4 W of Clam Lake, WI:  0.22″

Weather Tidbits for Duluth, Minnesota

*It finally happened!  The temperature climbed to a balmy 52 degrees Today, March 30th.  This is the 1st day at or above 50F since Thanksgiving (November 22, 2012)

*March 2013 will be the 4th month in a row that’ll finish above average in precipitation (Dec-Mar)

*2.03″ of precipitation has fallen this month which is 0.60″ above average.  Since January 1st, we’ve had 4.58″ of precipitation which is 1.38″ wetter than normal.

*25.5″ of snow for March, probably won’t add anymore to this total, either way it’s well above average.  For the season, were at 78.3″, and by the looks of the long range models, I don’t think will add much more to the seasonal total.  By the way, we average 86.1″ in a season.

Today’s Weather Summary for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Started out gloomy as rain came to an end which was followed by a period fog which was locally dense in some areas.  It did clear up in most areas during the Afternoon as low pressure responsible for last night’s rainfall in the Northland moved off to our east.  Very nice early spring temperatures with highs in the 40s and 50s Today, winds were out of the west or northwest at 10 to 20 mph.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Short Term – Confidence:  High.

Tonight (March 30th)

Partly to mostly cloudy skies will be found in our area with the possibility for a few flurries and snow showers.  Lows will be in the 20s to lower 30s with west or northwest winds at 10 to 20 mph.

Sunday and Sunday Night (March 31st)

A colder airmass will drop south into the Northland during this period as low pressure to our east and high pressure to our west leads to a brisk NW flow.  Highs Tomorrow will be in the 20s and 30s with lows Sunday Night in the single digits and teens.  Partly to mostly cloudy skies are forecast with a few snow showers or flurries possible.  Winds out of the northwest will be in the 10 to 25 mph range.

Extended Forecast – Confidence:  High.

Monday through Wednesday (April 1st-3rd)

Monday and Tuesday look pretty chilly especially for early April standards with highs on both of those days in the 20s, with maybe a few 30s for some by Tuesday.  Wednesday will feature modifying temperatures as high pressure moves to our east and we get into a southerly flow with highs getting back into the 30s and 40s.  Lows Monday Night and Tuesday Night are forecast to be in the single digits and teens.  This period looks mostly dry at this time.

Long Range Forecast – Confidence:  Medium.

(April 4th-8th)

Low pressure passes by to our north on Thursday (4th)  A cold front attached to that low will move through our area, still looks like this system will come through on the dry side with precipitation more likely to our north in Ontario.  A pattern change is becoming more likely beginning late next week into the following week.  It appears that a deep trough will setup over the Western U.S., ridging over the Southeast U.S., and a potentially wet/stormy SW flow for the Plains, Upper Midwest and Great Lakes.  There could be some rain in Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin next Saturday (6th) with some more rain possible toward the 8th the way it looks now.  Near to below average temperatures are forecast from the 4th-6th.  Near to above average temperatures for the 7th-8th.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR

.Tonight…  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 20 to 25.  Wind west to northwest at 10 to 15 mph.

.Easter Sunday….  Breezy.  Around 20 degrees colder than Saturday.  Considerable cloudiness.  Flurries or snow showers possible.  High 30 to 35.  Wind northwest at 15 to 25 mph.

.Sunday Night…  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 10 to 15.  Wind northwest at 10 to 20 mph.

.Monday…  Cold for April.  Partly cloudy.  High 23 to 28.

.Monday Night…  Mostly clear.  Low 5 to 10.

.Tuesday…  Partly cloudy.  High 28 to 33.

.Tuesday Night…  Partly cloudy.  Low 10 to 15.

.Wednesday…  Partly cloudy.  High 40 to 45.

Normal temperatures for Tomorrow

High:  41
Low:  21

Sunrise Sunday:  6:49 AM CDT
Sunset Sunday:   7:37 PM CDT

Tim

 

Rain arrives later Tonight, leaves Saturday AM; Isolated thunder threat after Midnight? Colder Sunday-Monday with snow showers and flurries.

/Issued 4:42 PM CDT, Friday, March 29th, 2013/

-Here’s a pretty cool tool provided by the HRRR model.  This shows where lightning may occur at 2 AM CDT Tonight.  Light blue areas=a small chance.

*18z NAM-HIRES model for 4 AM CDT Tonight.  Some decent downpours possible in Eastern Minnesota late Tonight, note the yellow and orange colors, this means there could be some locally heavy rain showers.

Weather Tidbits for Duluth, Minnesota

*48F thru 4 PM Today, warmest day of 2013 so far.  If we hit 50 Today, it would be the 1st time doing so since Thanksgiving Day (November 22 2012)

*Today is the 3rd day in a row with a high temperature of at least 40F (27th-29th)

*13 days so far this month with a high temperature of at least 32F.

Today’s Weather Summary for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Parts of the Northland reached 50 degrees or even a little warmer than 50 degrees Today, the rest of us were in the 40s, except at the head of Lake Superior where mid/upper 30s prevailed (light lake wind)  Skies were partly to mostly sunny with winds out of the south or east at 5 to 15 mph. 

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Short Term – Confidence:  High.

Tonight (March 29th)

An area of low pressure will move east through the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest Tonight.  A southwest low level jet of 30-40 knots is forecast to develop ahead of this system with a warm/moist advection pattern spreading into the Northland Tonight.

Rain should begin to develop after 7-8 PM in Western parts of our area, rain will march east during the rest of the night with all of the Northland getting at least some rain Overnight.  Note:  There’s a chance (albeit a small one) for some patchy freezing rain in Northern Minnesota and in the Arrowhead, I don’t think this will be very widespread, however, and I’m not expecting any real issues due to freezing rain in Northern Minnesota Tonight.

There’s also a small chance for an embedded thunderstorm or two late Tonight, mainly in Eastcentral Minnesota.

Expect skies to turn mostly cloudy Tonight with lows mainly in the 30s.  South, east or west winds are forecast at 5 to 15 mph.

*HRRR model total precipitation forecast for Tonight.  0.10-0.25″ of rain is forecast to fall in most of Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin with locally higher amounts certainly possible.

Saturday and Saturday Night (March 30th)

Low pressure and a cold front will exit to our south/east Tomorrow Morning with a secondary cold front moving into Northern Minnesota Tomorrow Night.  Could be some lingering rain Saturday Morning, otherwise Saturday Afternoon looks generally dry.  Possible flurries/snow showers in Northern Minnesota Saturday Night, mainly dry elsewhere.  Highs Tomorrow will be in the 30s and 40s with lows Tomorrow Night in the 20s to lower 30s.  Winds will be out of the west or northwest at 10 to 20 mph.

Extended Forecast – Confidence:  High.

Sunday through Tuesday (March 31st-April 2nd)

A cool period as we get back into a chilly N-NW flow late this weekend and early next week.  Scattered snow showers and flurries are expected on Sunday with generally dry conditions for Monday and Tuesday.  Note:  Up to 1″ of snow could fall on Sunday in portions of the Northland.  Highs Sunday through Tuesday will be in the 20s and 30s, best shot at 30s would be on Sunday.  Lows Sunday Night and Monday Night will be in the single digits and teens.

Long Range Forecast – Confidence:  High.

(April 3rd-7th)

Low pressure passes north of our area on Wednesday while a cold front moves through the Northland.  Still looks like this system comes through on the dry side.  Could be some rain at times between the 5th-7th, but not real sure how this period will unfold with some differences showing up in the long range computer models so stay tuned.  Near to below average temperatures are forecast during this period.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR

.Tonight…  Increasing cloudiness.  Rain developing after 11 PM.  Low 30 to 35.  Wind south to southeast at 5 to 15 mph.

.Saturday…  Rain possible before 9 AM, otherwise partly to mostly cloudy.  High 42 to 47.  Wind west to northwest at 10 to 20 mph.

.Saturday Night…  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 20 to 25.  Wind west to northwest at 10 to 20 mph.

.Easter Sunday…  Breezy.  Mostly cloudy.  Snow showers or flurries possible.  High 30 to 35.  Northwest winds could occasionally gust to 25 mph.

.Sunday Night…  Colder.  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Flurries possible.  Low 10 to 15.

.Monday…  Colder.  Partly sunny.  High 23 to 28.

.Monday Night…  Partly cloudy.  Low 5 to 10.

.Tuesday…  Partly cloudy.  High 28 to 33.

Normal temperatures for Today

High:  40
Low:  23

Sunrise Saturday:  6:51 AM CDT
Sunset Saturday:   7:36 PM CDT

Tim

 

 

Patchy fog possible Tonight; Friday sprinkles? Some rain late Friday Night-Saturday AM; Cold shot Sunday-Monday.

/Issued 3:42 PM CDT, Thursday, March 28th, 2013/

*Here’s the thunder probability map for late Friday Night (Around 1 AM CDT) per 15z SREF model from 3.28.13.  A chance for t’storms as far north as Southwest Minnesota for Friday Night.

Weather Tidbits:

-High temperature of 44F on March 27th at Duluth, Minnesota was the warmest high temperature recorded so far this month, and also the warmest temperature of 2013 so far.

-March 27th was the 1st time since January 10th with a high temperature of at least 40F at Duluth, Minnesota.

-It’s been a dry pattern as of late.  Today marks the 10th day in a row without a precipitation total of 0.01″ or greater at Duluth, Minnesota.  This streak should end Friday Night/Saturday.

Today’s Weather Summary for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Another great day with near to slightly above average temperatures throughout the Northland.  Highs ranged from the upper 30s to middle 40s with even a few upper 40s at Bigfork and Crane Lake, Minnesota and Phillips, Wisconsin.  Skies were sunny to partly cloudy and winds were light and variable at around 10 mph.

Today’s Upper Level Analysis

Water vapor satellite imagery and RAP model analysis reveals a NW flow covering the Upper Midwest.  850mb temperatures as of 3 PM ranged from 0 to -4C in Minnesota.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Short Term Forecast – Confidence:  High.

Tonight (March 28th)

Partly cloudy skies are forecast with patchy fog possible due to the melting snow from Today which is adding a bit of moisture to the atmosphere.  Lows will range from the single digits in the traditional cold spots with teens and 20s elsewhere.  Light and variable winds will continue at around 10 mph.

Friday and Friday Night (March 29th)

High pressure which was over the Upper Midwest Today will be sliding off to our east during this period while low pressure and a cold front move east out of the Northern Plains.  Patchy fog is possible Tomorrow Morning, otherwise expect partly sunny to partly cloudy skies with highs in the 30s and 40s with even a small chance that a few locales in the Northland could make a run at 50 degrees.  Note:  A few light rain showers or sprinkles can’t be ruled out on Friday, but this shouldn’t be a very big deal.  Low temperatures Friday Night under mostly cloudy will mainly be in the 30s.  Expect some rain especially after Midnight Tomorrow Night, some of this could be in the form of freezing rain, but this chance is relatively low, and no major icing is expected at this time.  Winds during this period will be out of the south or east at 10 to 15 mph.

-Precipitation forecast for Friday Night-Saturday AM.  For the most part this looks like a rain event for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin with total amounts of 0.25″ or less.  (Source, Weather Prediction Center)

Extended Forecast – Confidence:  High.

Saturday through Monday (March 30th-April 1st)

The warmest day of this period will be on Saturday when daytime highs will reach the 30s and 40s once again.  A cold front will exit to our south/east with rain ending from west to east Saturday Morning-early Afternoon.  A stronger cold front is forecast to sweep through the Northland on Sunday with a few snow showers or flurries possible at that time.  Dry weather returns next Monday.  Highs Sunday will be in the 20s and 30s.  Highs on Monday mainly in the 20s which is well below average for early April.  Lows Saturday Night will be in the teens and 20s.  Lows Sunday Night in the single digits below to teens above zero.

-Man, just looking at this map makes me cold.  Here’s the 850mb temperature forecast for Monday, April 1st, 2013 per 12z ECMWF ensemble model from 3.28.13.  Not just the cold, but looks fairly windy as well.  Pretty tight pressure gradient between the low to our northeast and high to our west (black lines=wind, closer together they are the windier it is)  Yeah, next Monday looks pretty awful for April.

Long Range Forecast – Confidence:  High.

(April 2nd-6th)

Looking pretty mellow during this period.  A system mid-week (3rd-4th) should pass through the region without much precipitation, and that’s about it.  Longer range computer models have indicated a more active weather pattern developing, but they continue to push back the timing as to when this unsettled pattern would kick in, now it looks like it may not be until after the 6th.  Temperatures look to be colder than average from the 2nd-6th.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR

.Tonight…  Partly cloudy.  Patchy fog possible late.  Low 20 to 25.  Wind variable around 10 mph.

.Friday…  Patchy fog possible early.  Partly to mostly cloudy.  A brief shower or sprinkles possible.  High 37 to 42.  Wind south to southeast at 5 to 15 mph.

.Friday Night…  Mostly cloudy.  Rain developing, especially after Midnight.  Low 30 to 35.  Wind south at 5 to 15 mph.

.Saturday…  Rain possible, mainly during the Morning.  Considerable cloudiness.   High 40 to 45.

.Saturday Night…  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 20 to 25.

.Easter Sunday…  Mostly cloudy.  Snow showers or flurries possible.  High 30 to 35.

.Sunday Night…  Colder.  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Flurries possible.  Low 10 to 15.

.Monday…  Colder.  Partly sunny.  High 22 to 27.

Normal temperatures for Today

High:  40
Low:  22

Sunrise Friday:  6:53 AM CDT
Sunset Friday:   7:34 PM CDT

Tim

Someone pinch me! 3 days in a row with a high near 40 or into the 40s in Duluth? Cold wave hits Easter Sunday.

/Issued 3:40 PM CDT, Wednesday, March 27th, 2013/

Today’s Weather Summary for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

So, this is what Normal late March temperatures feel like, eh? Not a bad early spring day with a mix of sun and clouds across the Northland.  High temperatures were in the upper 30s to lower 40s.  Winds were light and variable around 10 mph.

Today’s Upper Level Analysis

Northwest flow continues across the Upper Midwest per RAP model analysis.  850mb temperatures as of 3 PM ranged from -2 to -8C in Minnesota.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Short Term – Confidence:  High.

Tonight through Thursday Night (March 27th-28th)

High pressure rules during this period.  Lows Tonight will range from the single digits to the 20s.  Highs Thursday will be in the 30s and 40s.  Lows Thursday Night mainly in the 20s.  Expect partly to at times mostly cloudy skies through Thursday Night.

Extended Forecast – Confidence:  High.

Friday through Sunday (March 29th-31st)

Mild temperatures for Friday and Saturday will give way to another blast of cold air late this weekend.  2 cold fronts are forecast to move through our area, one on Saturday, the other on Easter Sunday.  The front on Saturday will bring some rain showers to the Northland with a possible rain/snow mix in the Arrowhead, but overall temperatures do look warm enough to make this a rain event vs. a snow event.  Precipitation amounts still look to be on the light side on Saturday.  Colder air for Sunday’s front, so there will probably be some non-accumulating flurries/snow showers falling from the sky.

Highs Friday and Saturday will be in the 30s and 40s, I’d say there’s at least a slight chance that a few lucky Northland towns will reach 50, especially on Friday.  Highs on Sunday will be in the 20s and 30s.  Lows Friday Night and Saturday Night will be in the 20s and 30s.

Long Range Forecast – Confidence:  High.

(April 1st-5th)

No big storms showing up per long range computer models.  Remember a few days ago the GFS model showed a couple of  impressive systems affecting the Upper Midwest during the 1st week of April, well as is often the case with the whacked out GFS model (those storms are long gone)  Looks cold during most of this period with below average temperatures expected.  Hints of a pattern change showing up after April 5th per 12z EUROPEAN model (this change may actually take place since it’s the EURO that’s showing it)  This period looks mainly dry at this time, although a weak system sometime around the 4th-5th could bring a few minor snow showers to our area.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR

.Tonight…  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 18 to 23.  Wind light and variable around 10 mph.

.Thursday…  Partly cloudy.  High 40 to 45.  Wind variable around 12 mph.

.Thursday Night…  Partly cloudy.  Low 20 to 25.  Wind south to southwest around 10 mph.

.Friday…  Partly cloudy.  High 40 to 45.

.Friday Night…  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 30 to 35

.Saturday…  Mostly cloudy.  Rain showers possible.  High 40 to 45.

.Saturday Night…  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 20 to 25.

.Easter Sunday…  Mostly cloudy.  Snow showers or flurries possible.  High 30 to 35.

Normal temperatures for Today

High:  39
Low:  22

Sunrise Thursday:  6:55 AM CDT
Sunset Thursday:   7:33 PM CDT

Tim

Near-Normal temperatures thru Saturday; Sharply colder Easter Sunday/Monday; Possible rain-snow showers Saturday.

/Issued 3:45 PM CDT, Tuesday, March 26th, 2013/

Today’s Weather Summary for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Well, it sure wasn’t as sunny as I thought it would be Today, and we even had some surprise snow showers and flurries scattered about in parts of Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin, other than that the temperature part of the forecast verified quite well with daytime highs in the 30s.  Winds were light and from the east around the head of Lake Superior with northwest winds elsewhere.

Today’s Upper Level Analysis

A northwest flow aloft covered the Upper Midwest per water vapor satellite imagery and RAP model analysis.  850mb temperatures as of 3 PM were around -8C in Minnesota.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Short Term – Confidence:  High.

Tonight (March 26th)

High pressure will be in control of our weather, with that said expect some lingering scattered flurries This Evening, otherwise partly to mostly cloudy skies are forecast with lows in the single digits, teens and 20s.  Winds will be out of the north or northwest around 10 mph.

Wednesday and Wednesday Night (March 27th)

Hoping for more sun Tomorrow compared to what most of us had Today, will see how that goes.  It does look dry this period so no surprise flurries (I’m sure Mother Nature will listen)  Highs Tomorrow will be in the 30s with a few 40s even possible.  Lows Tomorrow Night will be in the teens and 20s.  Winds will be variable in direction at 5 to 15 mph.

Extended Forecast – Confidence:  High.

Thursday through Saturday (March 28th-30th)

Dry conditions should continue Thursday and Friday.  On Saturday, an area of low pressure and cold front is forecast to pass through the area bringing some rain or snow showers to the Northland.  Note:  Precipitation amounts on Saturday look fairly light at this time.  High temperatures will be in the 30s and 40s Thursday through Saturday with lows Thursday Night and Friday Night mainly in the 20s.

Long Range Forecast – Confidence:  Medium.

(March 31st-April 4th)

Another shot of very cold air (for this time of year) is forecast to invade the Northland Easter Sunday (31st) and next Monday (1st)  Could see some flurries and snow showers as well on Sunday with mainly dry conditions for the early-mid part of next week.  There could be a system toward the end of next week, most likely toward the 4th of April or beyond, so that’ll be something to keep an eye on during the next several days.  Near to below average temperatures should continue through this period.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR

.Tonight…  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 15 to 20.  Wind variable around 10 mph.

.Wednesday…  Partly cloudy.  High 35 to 40.  Wind northwest at 5 to 15 mph.

.Wednesday Night…  Partly cloudy.  Low 15 to 20.  Wind variable around 10 mph.

.Thursday…  Partly cloudy.  High 38 to 43.

.Thursday Night…  Partly cloudy.  Low 20 to 25.

.Friday…  Partly cloudy.  High 40 to 45.

.Friday Night…  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 25 to 30.

.Saturday…  Mostly cloudy.  Rain or snow showers possible.  High 38 to 43.

Normal temperatures for Today

High:  39
Low:  22

Sunrise Wednesday:  6:57 AM CDT
Sunset Wednesday:   7:31 PM CDT

Tim