June 28, 2013 – Weather report; A tad gloomy Tonight; brightening up this weekend.

/Issued 3:02 PM CDT, Friday, June 28, 2013/

Today’s Weather Summary for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

An upper level trough covered the Upper Midwest, Great Lakes and Central Canada Today.  Plenty of clouds and scattered showers along with a few isolated thunderstorms were common in our area Today due to this upper trough.  Highs were in the 60s and 70s but a pronounced wind shift in the Twin Ports early This Afternoon caused a sudden drop in temperatures from the 70s to the 50s.  Winds Today were out of the north, northwest or east at 5 to 15 mph.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Short Term Forecast – Confidence:  High.

Tonight (June 28th)

Kind of a damp/gloomy night ahead as skies stay mostly cloudy.  Occasional showers will also occur with isolated thunderstorms also possible mainly This Evening.  Patchy fog is also a possibility mainly near Lake Superior.  Lows will be in the 50s to lower 60s with north winds at 10 to 15 mph.

Saturday and Saturday Night (June 29th)

Scattered showers are possible Tomorrow with dry weather Tomorrow Night.  Partly to mostly cloudy skies are forecast with highs Saturday in the 60s and 70s but cooler near Lake Superior.  Lows Saturday Night will be in the 40s and 50s.  Winds will be out of the north, west or east at 10 to 15 mph.

Extended Forecast – Confidence:  High.

Sunday through Tuesday (June 30th-July 2nd)

This period looks generally dry with highs in the 70s to lower 80s but cooler temperatures are possible at times near Lake Superior.  Lows Sunday Night and Monday Night will be in the 40s and 50s.

Long Range Forecast – Confidence:  High.

(July 3rd-8th)

Next Wednesday and the 4th are forecast to be mainly dry.  A few showers or thunderstorms might return to the Northland from the 6th-8th.  Near to above average temperatures are expected this period.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR

.Tonight…  Occasional showers, drizzle, and some fog.  Mostly cloudy.  Low 52 to 57.  Wind north to northeast at 10 to 15 mph.

.Saturday…  Some drizzle or fog possible early, otherwise partly sunny.  High 70 to 75 but cooler near Lake Superior.  Wind north to northeast at 10 to 15 mph.

.Saturday Night…  Partly cloudy.  Low 50 to 55.  Wind north at 5 to 15 mph.

.Sunday…  Partly cloudy.  High 73 to 78 but cooler near Lake Superior.

.Sunday Night…  Mostly clear.  Low 50 to 55.

.Monday…  Partly cloudy.  High 75 to 80.

.Monday Night…  Partly cloudy.  Low 47 to 52.

.Tuesday…  Partly cloudy.  High 75 to 80.

Normal temperatures for Today

High:  74
Low:  53

Sunrise Saturday:  5:17 AM CDT
Sunset Saturday:   9:06 PM CDT

Tim

June 27, 2013 – Weather report. Today was the 5th day in a row at or above 80 in Duluth (Airport location) Won’t get to 80 on Friday.

/Issued 5:08 PM CDT, Thursday, June 27, 2013/

Today’s Weather Summary for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

A beaut!  Can’t get much better than this.  High temperatures were in the 70s and 80s Today with comfortable humidity levels and a nice breeze out of the west at 10 to 20 mph.  Low pressure of 1004mb was centered just north of Minnesota Today and enough instability and moisture on the backside of this low helped to generate scattered showers and thunderstorms Today with the greatest concentration of rain occurring in the Arrowhead of Minnesota and in Eastern portions of Northwest Wisconsin.  Heavy downpours and lightning have been the main risks from these storms Today with hail and gusty winds being a secondary concern.

Rainfall report for June 26-27, 2013 (ending between 6-7 AM Today)
Source:  National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota

Grand Marais, MN:  0.49″
Hibbing, MN:  0.82″
Ashland, WI:  0.25″
Togo, MN:  1.20″
Cook, MN:  1.83″
Embarrass, MN:  0.81″
Kabetogama, MN:  0.43″
3 E of Orr, MN:  0.77″
Silver Bay, MN:  0.48″
Finland, MN:  0.30″
3 S of Ashland, WI:  0.32″
Butternut, WI:  0.27″
Upson, WI:  0.32″
9 N of Bayfield, WI:  0.70″
4 W of Clam Lake, WI:  0.61″
Gordon, WI:  0.33″
Sarona, WI:  0.20″

Local Storm Report for June 26, 2013
Source:  National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota

-5:14 PM CDT:  0.88″ HAIL.  3 NE of Siren, WI (Burnett County)

-5:00 PM CDT:  1.25″ HAIL.  Siren, WI (Burnett County)

-9:05 PM CDT:  0.50″ HAIL.  1 N of Wirt, MN (Itasca County)

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Short Term Forecast – Confidence:  High.

Tonight (June 27th)

Partly to mostly cloudy skies will occur Tonight with scattered showers and thunderstorms continuing mainly before Midnight, although a few showers might linger even past Midnight mostly in far Northern/Northeastern Minnesota.  If you have outdoor plans This Evening don’t cancel them, but pay attention to the weather/skies, if you can hear thunder you are close enough to be struck by lightning.  Remember, when thunder roars get indoors!  Low temperatures will be in the 50s to lower 60s with westerly winds at 5 to 15 mph.

Friday and Friday Night (June 28th)

An upper level low/trough and a cold front will affect the Northland’s weather this period.  Mostly cloudy skies are forecast with occasional showers and a  few thunderstorms.  Highs on Friday will be in the 60s and 70s with lows Friday Night mainly in the 50s.  North or west winds are expected at 10 to 20 mph.

Extended Forecast – Confidence:  High.

Saturday through Monday (June 29th-July 1st)

Still can’t rule out a few showers on Saturday as an upper trough remains over the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes.  Sunday and Monday look dry at the moment.  Highs on Saturday will be in the 60s and 70s with 70s and possibly a few 80s for Sunday and Monday although it will be cooler at times closer to Lake Superior.  Lows Saturday Night and Sunday Night will be in the 40s and 50s.

Long Range Forecast – Confidence:  High.

(July 2nd-7th)

Temperatures continue to look like there’ll be close to seasonal averages through this period, although it wouldn’t surprise me if a day or two end up above average.  Looks mainly dry from the 2nd-5th, after that we could see the return of a few showers or thunderstorms toward the 6th-7th.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR

.Tonight…  Partly to mostly cloudy.  A few showers or thunderstorms possible before Midnight.  Low 55 to 60.  Wind west at 10 to 20 mph.

.Friday…  Considerable cloudiness with occasional showers.  Isolated thunderstorms also possible.  High 66 to 71.  Wind northwest at 10 to 20 mph.

.Friday Night…  Mostly cloudy.  Showers possible.  Low 52 to 57.  Wind north to northwest at 10 to 20 mph.

.Saturday…  Partly sunny.  Showers possible.  High 68 to 73.

.Saturday Night…  Partly cloudy.  Low 50 to 55.

.Sunday…  Partly cloudy.  High 71 to 76.

.Sunday Night…  Mostly clear.  Low 50 to 55.

.Monday…  Partly cloudy.  High 73 to 78.

Normal temperatures for Tomorrow

High:  74
Low:  53

Sunrise Friday:  5:17 AM CDT
Sunset Friday:   9:07 PM CDT

Tim

June 26, 2013 – Weather report; 80s return to Downtown Duluth on Thursday.

/Issued 4:28 PM CDT, Wednesday, June 26, 2013/

*Total rainfall map for June 25-26, 2013 ending the Morning of the 26th.  Last night’s thunderstorms targeted Western/Northern parts of Minnesota where a half to one inch or more of rain was common with some 2-3″+ amounts in parts of Western Minnesota.  (Source, Midwest Regional Climate Center)

Local Storm Report for June 26, 2013
Source:  National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota

-2:10 PM CDT:  HEAVY RAIN.  0.87″.  3 NNE of Finland, MN (Lake County)

-2:25 PM CDT:  0.88″ HAIL.  3 N of Spooner, WI (Burnett County)  Dime to nickel size hail with small branches down.  Very heavy downpour.

-2:10 PM CDT:  HEAVY RAIN.  1.75″.  Oakland, WI (Burnett County)

-12:21 PM CDT:  0.88″ HAIL.  Grantsburg, WI (Burnett County)  Dime to nickel size hail fell from 12:15 PM to 12:21 PM.

Today’s Weather Summary for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

A weakening occluded front/wind shift line has settled into far Eastern Minnesota late This Afternoon while a secondary cold front heads east through the Northern Plains.  Another warm and humid day over most of our area with highs in the 70s and 80s with dew points in the 60s to lower 70s.  The marine layer strengthened Today which resulted in much cooler and foggier conditions closer to Lake Superior where highs stayed in the 50s.  Winds were out of the west, northwest or east Today at 5 to 15 mph.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Short Term Forecast – Confidence:  High.

Tonight (June 26th)

Partly to mostly cloudy skies will be common Tonight with scattered showers and thunderstorms due to a few boundaries which will be passing through the Upper Midwest.  The atmosphere will remain unstable Tonight with CAPE of 1000-2000 j/kg and Lifted Indices from -2 to -5C.  Mid and upper level winds will also continue to increase during the night.  Still not expecting much in the way of severe weather Tonight, but a few stronger storms could develop.  Heavy downpours and dangerous lightning will be the primary hazards along with small hail and gusty winds.  Low temperatures will be in the 50s and 60s with winds out of the west or north at 5 to 15 mph.

Thursday and Thursday Night (June 27th)

A northwest flow aloft develops during this period with a cold front moving south/east of the Northland on Thursday while an upper low/trough develops to our north.  Lingering instability and moisture could lead to a few showers and thunderstorms in our area Tomorrow and Tomorrow Evening.  There’s a risk for isolated stronger storms as well with 40-60 knot winds in the mid levels of the atmosphere and 80-100 knot winds in the upper levels.  However, the amount of instability and moisture will be less Tomorrow compared to what we had Today and this could limit the intensity of the storms.  Highs on Thursday will be in the 70s and 80s with lows Thursday Night in the 50s and 60s.  Winds will be out of the west at 10 to 20 mph.

Extended Forecast – Confidence:  High.

Friday through Sunday (June 28th-30th)

A north-northwest flow aloft will be a common theme during this period.  With an upper trough/low sitting just to our north/east there will be chance for some showers or isolated thunderstorms Friday/Saturday, especially during the Afternoon and Evening hours.  Sunday looks mainly dry at this time.  High temperatures will be in the 60s and 70s with lows Friday Night and Saturday Night mainly in the 50s.

Long Range Forecast – Confidence:  High.

(July 1st-6th)

Near normal temperatures are forecast through this period.  Looks mainly dry from the 1st-4th.  After that we could see a few showers or thunderstorms return, but this by no means is a guarantee. 

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR

.Tonight…  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Scattered showers or thunderstorms possible.  Patchy fog.  Low 55 to 60.  Wind variable at 5 to 15 mph becoming west.

.Thursday…  Partly sunny.  A few showers or thunderstorms possible.  High 79 to 84.  Wind west at 10 to 20 mph.

.Thursday Night…  A few showers or thunderstorms possible early, otherwise partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 55 to 60.  Wind west to northwest at 5 to 15 mph.

.Friday…  Partly sunny.  Afternoon showers possible.  High 70 to 75.

.Friday Night…  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Evening showers possible.  Low 52 to 57.

.Saturday…  Partly sunny.  High 68 to 73.

.Saturday Night…  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 50 to 55.

.Sunday…  Partly cloudy.  High 70 to 75.

Normal temperatures for Today

High:  74
Low:  52

Sunrise Thursday:  5:16 AM CDT
Sunset Thursday:   9:07 PM CDT

Tim

June 25, 2013 – Weather report; A risk for a few strong-severe t’storms Wednesday.

/Issued 4:19 PM CDT, Tuesday, June 25, 2013/

-Some impressive dew points showing up in the Dakotas Today.  Yellow and light green colors indicate dew points in the 70s at 3 PM Today!  It’s not unusual for it to get this humid this far north, just doesn’t happen that often, maybe a half dozen times (give/take a few) or so during the summer.  (Source; RTMA model)

Today’s Weather Summary for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

A warm front was draped over Northern Iowa late This Afternoon with a cold front over the Central Dakotas along with an area of low pressure averaging 1001mb.  Another very nice late June day in the Northland under sunny to partly cloudy skies.  Highs were mainly in the 80s with 70s closer to Lake Superior.  Note:  A few spots especially over Northern Minnesota were nearing 90 degrees as of 4 PM Today.  It was rather muggy Today with dew points generally in the upper 50s and 60s.  Winds were out of the south or east at 5 to 15 mph.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Short Term Forecast – Confidence:  High.

Tonight (June 25th)

The atmosphere is quite unstable and it will remain that way during the night with CAPE of 1000-2000 j/kg and Lifted Indices of -2 to -7C.  But, as I pointed out yesterday, there just isn’t any sort of front or disturbance nearby to help generate thunderstorms.  The main zone for thunderstorm activity Tonight looks to be over the Dakotas and in Western/Southern parts of Minnesota.  Some of this activity may begin to affect the Western/Southern parts of the Northland later Tonight but none of these storms are expected to be severe due to a marginal low level jet and very weak winds aloft.  Heavy downpours could occur, however, due to the abundant moisture in place.  Partly to mostly cloudy skies are expected with patchy fog possible near Lake Superior.  Winds will be out of the south or east at 5 to 15 mph.

Wednesday and Wednesday Night (June 26th)

A trough/cold front is forecast to track east and through the Northland during this period.  Still looks plenty unstable over our area Tomorrow with CAPE of 1000-2000 j/kg and Lifted Indices of -2 to -6C.  Scattered showers or thunderstorms could develop at times this period as the front moves through.  Mid level winds are expected to increase a bit Tomorrow with wind speeds up around 30 knots with 0-6 KM Bulk Shear and Effective Bulk Shear generally on the weaker side of around 30 knots or less.  The potential is there for isolated strong to even severe thunderstorms in Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin Tomorrow with hail and gusty winds being the main threats.  Heavy downpours will also be a threat with a continued humid airmass overhead.  Highs Tomorrow will be in the 70s and 80s with lows Tomorrow Night in the 50s and 60s.  Winds will be out of the south, east, or west at 10 to 15 mph.

-Rainfall forecast valid until 7 PM Wednesday.  Looks like most of Northern MN and Northwest WI could receive a quarter to half inch of rain, but with thunderstorms some spots could see quite a bit more.  (Source; Weather Prediction Center)

Extended Forecast – Confidence:  High.

Thursday through Saturday (June 27th-29th)

A northwest flow aloft develops during this period with an upper low/trough developing to our north.  A few showers or thunderstorms could develop Thursday and Friday with a few showers also possible on Saturday.  High temperatures will be in the 70s and 80s Thursday and Friday with 60s and 70s on Saturday.  Low temperatures will mainly be in the 50s Thursday Night and Friday Night. 

Long Range Forecast – Confidence:  High.

(June 30th-July 5th)

Temperatures through this period are forecast to be near seasonal averages.  It’s also looking like a fairly quiet/dry weather pattern for our area as a N/NW flow occurs through this period.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR

.Tonight…  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Patchy fog possible.  Low 60 to 65 with 50s near Lake Superior.  Wind east to southeast at 10 to 15 mph.

.Wednesday…  Scattered showers or thunderstorms.  Mostly cloudy.  High 73 to 78 but cooler near Lake Superior.  Wind southeast at 5 to 15 mph.

.Wednesday Night…  A few showers or thunderstorms possible.  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 55 to 60.  Wind west at 5 to 15 mph.

.Thursday…  A few showers or thunderstorms possible.  Partly sunny.  High 75 to 80.

.Thursday Night…  Partly cloudy.  Low 55 to 60.

.Friday…  A few showers or thunderstorms possible.  Partly sunny.  High 70 to 75.

.Friday Night…  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 52 to 57.

.Saturday…  Partly sunny.  High 68 to 73.

Normal temperatures for Today

High:  73
Low:  52

Sunrise Wednesday:  5:16 AM CDT
Sunset Wednesday:   9:07 PM CDT

Tim

June 24, 2013 – Weather Report; Pattern change looming and last week’s temp and precip data for Duluth included in this post.

/Issued 4:09 PM CDT, Monday, June 24, 2013/ 

-A pattern change is a coming!  Deep trough to our east and a massive heat ridge to our west.  Minnesota sits in between under a N/NW flow aloft, this means a cooler temperature regime for most, except for areas closer to Lake Superior where it’ll be a tad milder thanks to an offshore wind and not a persistent east wind.  At the moment this doesn’t look like a wet/stormy pattern for the Upper Midwest, may actually get an extended period of dry weather late this weekend into much of next week, we shall see…  (Source; NCEP)

Weather Tidbits for Duluth, Minnesota (Airport location)

-Today marks the 6th day this month with a high temperature of at least 80 degrees and the 12th day with a high temperature of at least 70 degrees.  Last June we had 7 days with a high temperature of at least 80 degrees, but 26 days with a high temperature of at least 70 degrees.

-So far this year we’ve had 7 days with a high temperature of at least 80 F and 20 days with a high temperature of at least 70 F.  Last year thru June 30th we had 10 days with a high temperature of at least 80 F and 40 days with a high temperature of at least 70 F.

-Total rainfall during the past 4 days (June 20-23)  2.79″

-Every month so far in 2013 has had above average precipitation, in fact were at 6 consecutive months with above average precipitation (December-May)

-Were at 4 months in a row with a below average monthly temperature (February-May)  June currently is 0.1 degrees colder than normal.

*Total precipitation during the past 30 days, ending the Morning of June 24, 2013.  Much of Minnesota has seen at least 3-6″ of rain during the past 30 days with the yellow, orange, and red colored areas picking up between 6-9″+ of rain.  Yes, that’s a lot of rain! (Source; Midwest Regional Climate Center)

Today’s Weather Summary for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

As advertised Today was a beautiful summer day across the Northland with partly to mostly sunny skies and high temperatures in the lower to middle 80s with dew points generally in the 50s with some lower 60s in Southern areas.  Winds were out of the south or southwest at 10 to 20 mph.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Short Term Forecast – Confidence:  High.

Tonight (June 24th)

An area of high pressure will remain over the Upper Midwest with low pressure moving into the Western Dakotas with a warm front down in Iowa.  There will be a marked increase in instability from south-north Tonight with CAPE approaching 1000-2000 j/kg but only isolated showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop at times mainly in Northwestern Wisconsin.  Lows will be in the 50s and 60s with partly to mostly cloudy skies.  Winds will be out of the south or east at 5 to 15 mph.

Tuesday and Tuesday Night (June 25th)

An area of low pressure is forecast to be over the Northern Plains with a warm front over Iowa or Southern Minnesota.  Lots of instability will be building across the Upper Midwest on Tuesday with CAPE of 2000-4000 j/kg with Lifted Indices of -4 to -9C.  There will also be copious amounts of moisture in place with dew points in the 60s to around 70 degrees with PWATS of 1.00-1.80″.  So the energy and moisture is in place for thunderstorms but were lacking a trigger as the main surface boundary is expected to stay well to our south with the surface low off to our west.  The low level jet looks rather weak, generally less than 25 knots and there really is no support in the mid or upper levels (weak winds aloft)  So the speed shear is very weak during this period but the directional shear is good with the S-SE winds near the surface and at 850mb which turn more westerly at 500mb.

I really don’t think were going to see much in the way of showers and thunderstorms on Tuesday, but some storms could develop Tuesday Night.  Locally heavy rain will be possible with the deep moisture in place, but severe chances look pretty low as storms should be outflow dominant, so gusty winds may be possible if stronger storms were to develop Tomorrow Evening/Overnight.

Highs on Tuesday will be in the 70s and 80s with cooler temperatures along the North Shore of Lake Superior.  Lows Tuesday Night will be in the 50s and 60s.  Winds during this period will be out of the south or east at 10 to 20 mph.

Extended Forecast – Confidence:  High.

Wednesday through Friday (June 26th-28th)

Looks like will see 2 cold fronts pass through the Northland, one on Wednesday and the other on Thursday.  Then, on Friday an upper trough begins to develop in Central Canada.  Scattered showers or thunderstorms are possible on Wednesday with a few showers or thunderstorms possible Thursday and Friday.  Not expecting any severe weather mid to late week.  High temperatures on Wednesday and Thursday are forecast to be in the 70s and 80s with cooler temperatures near Lake Superior.  Highs on Friday will mainly be in the 70s.  Lows Wednesday Night and Thursday Night will be in the 50s and 60s.

Long Range Forecast – Confidence:  High.

(June 29th-July 4th)

A highly amplified weather pattern looks to be setting up as we end the month of June and move ahead into the 1st week of July.  A huge ridge (hot air dome) looks like it’ll cover the Western U.S. while a deep trough (cool air) covers the Eastern half of the U.S.  Could see a few showers in NE Minnesota and NW Wisconsin on Saturday (29th) thanks to an upper level trough which is forecast to be sitting just to our north/east.  The period from the 30th-4th actually looks mainly dry at the moment, will see if that lasts, hopefully it will.  Temperatures are expected to be near seasonal averages through this period.

Temperature and precipitation report for Duluth, MN (Airport location)

June 16-22, 2013

High temperatures:

6/16:  81 F/10 degrees above normal
6/17:  62 F/9 degrees below normal
6/18:  71 F/1 degree below normal
6/19:  82 F/10 degrees above normal
6/20:  69 F/3 degrees below normal
6/21:  69 F/3 degrees below normal
6/22:  64 F/9 degrees below normal

Low temperatures:

6/16:  54 F/4 degrees above normal
6/17:  46 F/4 degrees below normal
6/18:  43 F/7 degrees below normal
6/19:  51 F/1 degree above normal
6/20:  54 F/3 degrees above normal
6/21:  53 F/2 degrees above normal
6/22:  55 F/4 degrees above normal

Total rainfall:  2.37″
Normal:  1.06″
Departure:  +1.31″

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR

.Tonight…  Partly cloudy.  Low 60 to 65.  Wind south to southwest at 10 to 15 mph, becoming east.

.Tuesday…  Partly to mostly cloudy.  High 79 to 84 but cooler near Lake Superior.  Wind east to southeast at 10 to 15 mph.

.Tuesday Night…  A few showers or thunderstorms possible.  Low 55 to 60 but cooler near Lake Superior.  Wind east at 10 to 15 mph.

.Wednesday…  A few showers or thunderstorms possible.  High 70 to 75 but cooler near Lake Superior.

.Wednesday Night…  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 55 to 60.

.Thursday…  Partly sunny.  A few showers or thunderstorms possible.  High 75 to 80.

.Thursday Night…  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 55 to 60.

.Friday…  A few showers or thunderstorms possible.  High 70 to 75.

Normal temperatures for Today

High:  73
Low:  52

Sunrise Tuesday:  5:16 AM CDT
Sunset Tuesday:   9:07 PM CDT

Tim