/Issued 4:09 PM CDT, Monday, June 24, 2013/
-A pattern change is a coming! Deep trough to our east and a massive heat ridge to our west. Minnesota sits in between under a N/NW flow aloft, this means a cooler temperature regime for most, except for areas closer to Lake Superior where it’ll be a tad milder thanks to an offshore wind and not a persistent east wind. At the moment this doesn’t look like a wet/stormy pattern for the Upper Midwest, may actually get an extended period of dry weather late this weekend into much of next week, we shall see… (Source; NCEP)
Weather Tidbits for Duluth, Minnesota (Airport location)
-Today marks the 6th day this month with a high temperature of at least 80 degrees and the 12th day with a high temperature of at least 70 degrees. Last June we had 7 days with a high temperature of at least 80 degrees, but 26 days with a high temperature of at least 70 degrees.
-So far this year we’ve had 7 days with a high temperature of at least 80 F and 20 days with a high temperature of at least 70 F. Last year thru June 30th we had 10 days with a high temperature of at least 80 F and 40 days with a high temperature of at least 70 F.
-Total rainfall during the past 4 days (June 20-23) 2.79″
-Every month so far in 2013 has had above average precipitation, in fact were at 6 consecutive months with above average precipitation (December-May)
-Were at 4 months in a row with a below average monthly temperature (February-May) June currently is 0.1 degrees colder than normal.
*Total precipitation during the past 30 days, ending the Morning of June 24, 2013. Much of Minnesota has seen at least 3-6″ of rain during the past 30 days with the yellow, orange, and red colored areas picking up between 6-9″+ of rain. Yes, that’s a lot of rain! (Source; Midwest Regional Climate Center)
Today’s Weather Summary for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin
As advertised Today was a beautiful summer day across the Northland with partly to mostly sunny skies and high temperatures in the lower to middle 80s with dew points generally in the 50s with some lower 60s in Southern areas. Winds were out of the south or southwest at 10 to 20 mph.
Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin
Short Term Forecast – Confidence: High.
Tonight (June 24th)
An area of high pressure will remain over the Upper Midwest with low pressure moving into the Western Dakotas with a warm front down in Iowa. There will be a marked increase in instability from south-north Tonight with CAPE approaching 1000-2000 j/kg but only isolated showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop at times mainly in Northwestern Wisconsin. Lows will be in the 50s and 60s with partly to mostly cloudy skies. Winds will be out of the south or east at 5 to 15 mph.
Tuesday and Tuesday Night (June 25th)
An area of low pressure is forecast to be over the Northern Plains with a warm front over Iowa or Southern Minnesota. Lots of instability will be building across the Upper Midwest on Tuesday with CAPE of 2000-4000 j/kg with Lifted Indices of -4 to -9C. There will also be copious amounts of moisture in place with dew points in the 60s to around 70 degrees with PWATS of 1.00-1.80″. So the energy and moisture is in place for thunderstorms but were lacking a trigger as the main surface boundary is expected to stay well to our south with the surface low off to our west. The low level jet looks rather weak, generally less than 25 knots and there really is no support in the mid or upper levels (weak winds aloft) So the speed shear is very weak during this period but the directional shear is good with the S-SE winds near the surface and at 850mb which turn more westerly at 500mb.
I really don’t think were going to see much in the way of showers and thunderstorms on Tuesday, but some storms could develop Tuesday Night. Locally heavy rain will be possible with the deep moisture in place, but severe chances look pretty low as storms should be outflow dominant, so gusty winds may be possible if stronger storms were to develop Tomorrow Evening/Overnight.
Highs on Tuesday will be in the 70s and 80s with cooler temperatures along the North Shore of Lake Superior. Lows Tuesday Night will be in the 50s and 60s. Winds during this period will be out of the south or east at 10 to 20 mph.
Extended Forecast – Confidence: High.
Wednesday through Friday (June 26th-28th)
Looks like will see 2 cold fronts pass through the Northland, one on Wednesday and the other on Thursday. Then, on Friday an upper trough begins to develop in Central Canada. Scattered showers or thunderstorms are possible on Wednesday with a few showers or thunderstorms possible Thursday and Friday. Not expecting any severe weather mid to late week. High temperatures on Wednesday and Thursday are forecast to be in the 70s and 80s with cooler temperatures near Lake Superior. Highs on Friday will mainly be in the 70s. Lows Wednesday Night and Thursday Night will be in the 50s and 60s.
Long Range Forecast – Confidence: High.
(June 29th-July 4th)
A highly amplified weather pattern looks to be setting up as we end the month of June and move ahead into the 1st week of July. A huge ridge (hot air dome) looks like it’ll cover the Western U.S. while a deep trough (cool air) covers the Eastern half of the U.S. Could see a few showers in NE Minnesota and NW Wisconsin on Saturday (29th) thanks to an upper level trough which is forecast to be sitting just to our north/east. The period from the 30th-4th actually looks mainly dry at the moment, will see if that lasts, hopefully it will. Temperatures are expected to be near seasonal averages through this period.
Temperature and precipitation report for Duluth, MN (Airport location)
June 16-22, 2013
6/16: 81 F/10 degrees above normal
6/17: 62 F/9 degrees below normal
6/18: 71 F/1 degree below normal
6/19: 82 F/10 degrees above normal
6/20: 69 F/3 degrees below normal
6/21: 69 F/3 degrees below normal
6/22: 64 F/9 degrees below normal
6/16: 54 F/4 degrees above normal
6/17: 46 F/4 degrees below normal
6/18: 43 F/7 degrees below normal
6/19: 51 F/1 degree above normal
6/20: 54 F/3 degrees above normal
6/21: 53 F/2 degrees above normal
6/22: 55 F/4 degrees above normal
Total rainfall: 2.37″
5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR
.Tonight… Partly cloudy. Low 60 to 65. Wind south to southwest at 10 to 15 mph, becoming east.
.Tuesday… Partly to mostly cloudy. High 79 to 84 but cooler near Lake Superior. Wind east to southeast at 10 to 15 mph.
.Tuesday Night… A few showers or thunderstorms possible. Low 55 to 60 but cooler near Lake Superior. Wind east at 10 to 15 mph.
.Wednesday… A few showers or thunderstorms possible. High 70 to 75 but cooler near Lake Superior.
.Wednesday Night… Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 55 to 60.
.Thursday… Partly sunny. A few showers or thunderstorms possible. High 75 to 80.
.Thursday Night… Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 55 to 60.
.Friday… A few showers or thunderstorms possible. High 70 to 75.
Normal temperatures for Today
Sunrise Tuesday: 5:16 AM CDT
Sunset Tuesday: 9:07 PM CDT