July 31, 2013 – Weather Report; More 80 degree days this summer at Fairbanks, Alaska compared to Duluth, Minnesota.

/Issued 4:33 PM CDT, Wednesday, July 31, 2013/

Weather Tidbits:

-The average year to date (January 1-July 30) temperature in the U.S. 51.2 degrees compared to 55.4 degrees at this time last year.  (Source, Twitter @RyanMaue and CDASv2/NCEP/CFSR model data)

-Fairbanks, Alaska has had more 80 degree days this year than Duluth, Minnesota.  Fairbanks is up to 29 days at or above 80F compared to Duluth which has had 25 days at or above 80F.  (Source, Twitter @CapitalWeatherGang)

-July 2013 will be the 1st month with below average precipitation since November 2012 and is the 1st month with below average precipitation in 2013 at Duluth, Minnesota.

Today’s Weather Summary for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

A cold front moved through the Northland Today.  This front brought a few showers and isolated thunderstorms to the area otherwise skies were partly to mostly cloudy with high temperatures mainly in the 70s.  Winds were out of the west at 10 to 25 mph with higher gusts.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Short Term Forecast – Confidence:  High.

Tonight (July 31)

Partly to mostly cloudy skies are expected with spotty showers possible mainly in far Northern Minnesota.  Lows will be in the 40s and 50s with west winds at 5 to 15 mph.

Thursday and Thursday Night (August 1)

Spotty showers or isolated thunderstorms could develop during the Afternoon/Evening hours as an upper level trough covers the Upper Midwest while an upper level disturbance drops SE out of Western Canada.  Partly to mostly cloudy skies are forecast with highs Tomorrow in the 60s and 70s with lows Tomorrow Night in the 40s and 50s.  Winds will be out of the west or northwest at 10 to 20 mph.

Extended Forecast – Confidence:  High.

Friday through Sunday (August 2-4)

Looks mainly dry through this period with highs in the 60s and 70s from Friday-Sunday.  Lows Friday Night and Saturday Night will be in the 40s and 50s.

Long Range Forecast – Confidence:  High.

(August 5-10)

A few showers are possible at times during this period with below average temperatures, although we could have near average temps early next week (5th-6th)

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR

.Tonight…  Partly cloudy.  Low 50 to 55.  Wind west at 10 to 20 mph.

.Thursday…  Partly sunny.  High 70 to 75.  Wind west to northwest at 10 to 20 mph.

.Thursday Night…  Partly to mostly cloudy.  A few showers possible.  Low 50 to 55.  Wind northwest at 10 to 15 mph.

.Friday…  Partly sunny.  High 70 to 75.

.Friday Night…  Partly cloudy.  Low 50 to 55.

.Saturday…  Partly cloudy.  High 70 to 75.

.Saturday Night…  Partly cloudy.  Low 50 to 55.

.Sunday…  Partly sunny.  High 70 to 75.

Normal temperatures for Today

High:  77
Low:  56

Sunrise Thursday:  5:49 AM CDT
Sunset Thursday:   8:40 PM CDT

Tim

July 30, 2013 – Weather Report

/Issued 7:48 PM CDT, Tuesday, July 30, 2013/

*Another cold shot on the horizon!

It’s a ways out, but the long range computer models are in good agreement (so far) in showing another lobe of unseasonably chilly air oozing south out of Central Canada and into Minnesota during the middle of next week.  The map below represents the temperature forecast at 850mb valid for next Wednesday PM.  Widespread +4 to +6C H85 temps over the Upper Midwest, quite chilly for early August.  (Source, 18z GFS model)















How dry has this July been in Duluth, Minnesota?  Details below…

Using data dating back to 2000, July 2013 sits in 2nd place for least amount of rain.

(Source, NCDC)

2000:  3.50″
2001:  1.89″
2002:  5.40″ Wettest since 2000.
2003:  4.79″
2004:  3.72″
2005:  0.82″  Driest since 2000.
2006:  3.47″
2007:  1.88″
2008:  4.58″
2009:  3.33″
2010:  2.95″
2011:  4.57″
2012:  3.09″
2013:  1.60″ thru the 30th.

Note:  Average rainfall during the month of July is 3.85″

Weather Tidbits for Duluth, Minnesota (Airport location)

*So far this year there’s been 52 days with a high temperature of at least 70F.  Tomorrow should make it 53 days.  By the end of July last year we already had 71 days at or above 70F.  Note:  85 days is the annual average.

Today’s Weather Summary for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

An active pattern in place with upper troughs over Quebec/Northeast U.S. with another upper trough digging SSE out of Manitoba.  A cold front has moved into Western Minnesota early This Evening resulting in mostly to partly cloudy skies here in the Northland.  There were some showers earlier in the day otherwise it was dry.  High temperatures were in the upper 60s to lower 70s with south or west winds at 10 to 20 mph.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Short Term Forecast – Confidence:  High.

Tonight (July 30)

Partly to mostly cloudy skies will continue with scattered showers possible at times.  Isolated thunderstorms may also develop during the night, but the overall amount of instability is quite low so any storms that do form should be on the weaker side.  Lows will be in the 50s and 60s with south or west winds at 5 to 15 mph.

Wednesday and Wednesday Night (July 31)

A cold front will exit the Northland by midday while an upper level trough and NW flow covers the Upper Midwest.  Partly to mostly cloudy skies are forecast with a few showers or isolated thunderstorms possible Tomorrow with mainly dry conditions Tomorrow Night.  Highs on Wednesday will mainly be in the 70s with lows Wednesday Night in the 40s and 50s.  Winds will be out of the west or northwest at 10 to 25 mph.

Extended Forecast – Confidence:  High.

Thursday through Saturday (August 1-3)

A few showers or isolated thunderstorms are possible on Thursday with mainly dry conditions for Friday and Saturday.  Highs are forecast to be in the 60s and 70s through this period with lows Thursday Night and Friday Night in the 40s and 50s.

Long Range Forecast – Confidence:  High.

(August 4-9)

Looks dry on Sunday (4th) Could see a few showers at times between the 5th-9th as a couple low pressure systems pass through the region.  Computer models are also hinting at a pretty good shot of cold air moving into the Northland during the middle/end of next week (7th-9th)  Near to below average temperatures are expected through this period with the greatest chance at seeing near seasonal level temperatures coming before August 7th.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR

.Tonight…  Considerable cloudiness.  A few showers possible after Midnight.  Low 55 to 60.  Wind south to southwest at 10 to 15 mph.

.Wednesday…  Partly sunny.  A few showers possible during the Morning.  High 71 to 76.  Wind west to northwest at 15 to 25 mph.

.Wednesday Night…  Partly cloudy.  Low 50 to 55.  Wind west at 10 to 15 mph.

.Thursday…  Partly sunny.  High 70 to 75.

.Thursday Night…  Partly to mostly cloudy.  A few showers possible.  Low 50 to 55.

.Friday…  Partly sunny.  High 70 to 75.

.Friday Night…  Partly cloudy.  Low 50 to 55.

.Saturday…  Partly cloudy.  High 70 to 75.

Normal temperatures for Tomorrow

High:  77
Low:  56

Sunrise Wednesday:  5:48 AM CDT
Sunset Wednesday:   8:41 PM CDT

Tim

July 29, 2013 – Weather Report; Conflicting data, 35 This AM (record low) at International Falls, or 40 (not a record) You be the judge!

/Issued 4:46 PM CDT, Monday, July 29, 2013/

-Temperature outlook valid for the 1st and 2nd week of August.  Quite a large part of the U.S. is forecast to have below average temperatures (blue areas)  Warmer than average temperatures are expected (red areas) in much of Florida, parts of the Northwest U.S. and a large part of Western/Northwest Canada into Alaska.  (Source, NAEFS model)



















Low temperature report for July 29, 2013
Source:  National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota

International Falls, MN:  35F
Embarrass, MN:  35F
12 ENE of Fifield, MN:  36F
Eveleth/Virginia Airport, MN:  37F
Crane Lake, MN:  37F
3 NNW of Cotton, MN:  38F
3 E of Orr, MN:  39F
Cook, MN:  39F
Orr, MN:  39F
3 W of Butternut, WI:  40F
11 SSE of Brule, WI:  40F
3 WNW of Twig, MN:  40F

*RECORD EVENT*
Source:  National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota

Record low temperature at International Falls, Minnesota Today, July 29, 2013.  The low temperature was 35 degrees which broke the previous record low of 36 degrees which was set in 2005.

Today’s Weather Summary for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Temperatures climbed into the 70s in most of the Northland Today under partly to mostly sunny skies.  Winds were out of the south or southwest at 5 to 15 mph.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Short Term Forecast – Confidence:  High.

Tonight through Tuesday Night (July 29-30)

A cold front will move out of the Northern Plains and into the Upper Midwest this period.  Southerly winds ahead of this front will result in some moisture advection with dew points getting into the 50s and 60s on Tuesday.  Expect some scattered showers over our area Tonight and Tomorrow Morning with some additional showers developing Tomorrow Night.  Not much instability available for convection through this period with CAPE generally less than 1000 j/kg with Lifted Indices around 0 to -2C.   Isolated thunderstorms could develop mainly Tomorrow Night, but severe weather isn’t expected due to a weak low level jet and the marginal amounts of instability.  Lows Tonight and Tuesday Night will be in the 50s and 60s with highs on Tuesday in the 70s.  Winds during this period will be out of the south, west or east at 10 to 15 mph.

Extended Forecast – Confidence:  High.

Wednesday through Friday (July 31-August 2)

Some showers are possible on Wednesday as a cold front continues on it’s journey through the Northland.  Thursday and Friday are looking mainly dry at this time, but Thursday PM could feature a few spotty showers as a weak disturbance passes through the area.  Highs on Wednesday will mainly be in the 70s.  Highs Thursday and Friday will be in the 60s and 70s.  Lows Wednesday Night and Thursday Night will be in the 40s and 50s.

Long Range Forecast – Confidence:  High.

(August 3-8)

Near to below average temperatures are forecast through this period with mainly dry conditions the way it looks now.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR

.Tonight…  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Showers possible at times, mainly after Midnight.  Low 55 to 60.  Wind south to southeast at 5 to 15 mph.

.Tuesday…  Showers possible at times, mainly during the Morning.  Partly to mostly cloudy.  High 72 to 77.  Wind southwest at 10 to 15 mph.

.Tuesday Night…  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Showers possible, mainly after Midnight.  Low 55 to 60.  Wind southwest at 5 to 15 mph.

.Wednesday…  Showers possible.  Considerable cloudiness.  High 70 to 75.

.Wednesday Night…  Partly cloudy.  Low 50 to 55.

.Thursday…  Partly sunny.  High 70 to 75.

.Thursday Night…  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 50 to 55.

.Friday…  Partly sunny.  High 70 to 75.

Normal temperatures for Tomorrow

High:  77
Low:  56

Sunrise Tuesday:  5:46 AM CDT
Sunset Tuesday:   8:43 PM CDT

Tim

July 28, 2013 – Weather Report; Frost threat up north Tonight; Summer returns Monday/Tuesday, after that winter – no not really.

/Issued 7:38 PM CDT, Sunday, July 28, 2013/

*A rare late July frost advisory for areas in blue, this is in effect for late Tonight and early Monday AM.  (Source, NWS hazards map)



















*FROST ADVISORY*
Source:  National Weather Service Duluth, MN

Location:

Northern Minnesota including the Iron Range and Arrowhead.

Timing:

2 AM until 7 AM CDT Monday.

Counties included:

Koochiching MN
Northern Itasca MN
Northern and Central St. Louis MN
Northern Lake MN
Northern Cook MN

Some cities included:

International Falls…Bigfork…Togo…Orr…Crane Lake…Ely…Virginia…Hibbing…and Isabella.

Discussion:

Low temperatures falling into the lower and middle 30s resulting in areas of frost late Tonight and early Monday Morning.

Impacts:

Sensitive plants will be prone to damage or be killed.

A frost advisory means that frost is possible.  Sensitive outdoor plants may be killed if left uncovered.

Temperature and precipitation report for Duluth, MN (Airport location)

July 21-27, 2013

Note:  I highlighted the high temp departures on the 26-27, pretty extreme for late July.

High temperatures:

7/21:  72 degrees/5 degrees below normal
7/22:  83 degrees/6 degrees above normal
7/23:  75 degrees/2 degrees below normal
7/24:  76 degrees/1 degree below normal
7/25:  81 degrees/4 degrees above normal
7/26:  61 degrees/16 degrees below normal
7/27:  56 degrees/21 degrees below normal

Low temperatures:

7/21:  51 degrees/5 degrees below normal
7/22:  56 degrees/Normal
7/23:  53 degrees/3 degrees below normal
7/24:  51 degrees/5 degrees below normal
7/25:  57 degrees/1 degree above normal
7/26:  49 degrees/7 degrees below normal
7/27:  49 degrees/7 degrees below normal

Total precipitation:  0.65″
Normal:  0.76″
Departure:  -0.15″

*Last week’s temperature departure map.  Amazing warmth 2 weeks ago and now an amazing cold snap on the 26th-27th.  (Source, Midwest Regional Climate Center)




















Last week’s precipitation departure map.  Duluth saw about 50% of it’s average rainfall last week.  (Source, Midwest Regional Climate Center)






















Quite a difference in the amount of precipitation that Duluth and International Falls has seen this month…Details below

Duluth, Minnesota:

Total precipitation for July (ending on the 28th)  1.56″
Departure:  -1.95″

Total precipitation since June 1st:  6.10″
Departure:  -1.64″

Total precipitation since January 1st:  19.44″
Departure:  +2.78″

International Falls, Minnesota:

Total precipitation for July (ending on the 28th)  7.39″
Departure:  +3.98″

Total precipitation since June 1st:  8.99″
Departure:  +1.66″


Total precipitation since January 1st:  21.37″
Departure:  +7.51″

*RECORD EVENT*
Source:  National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota

*Record low MAXIMUM temperature was tied at Duluth, Minnesota on July 27, 2013.  The high temperature was 56 degrees tying the previous record cold high temperature last set in 1888.

*Record low MAXIMUM temperature was tied at International Falls, Minnesota on July 27, 2013.  The high temperature was 59 degrees tying the previous record cold high temperature last set in 1973.

Weather Tidbits for Duluth, MN (Airport location)

-The 56 degree high temperature on July 27 was the coldest maximum temperature since June 5 (50 degrees)

-0.38″ of rain fell on July 27 which is the heaviest daily precipitation total so far this month and the heaviest daily precipitation total since June 23 (0.69″)

Today’s Weather Summary for NE Minnesota and NW Wisconsin

Slight improvements in the weather compared to the last 2 days.  High temperatures were in the middle 60s to lower 70s and we actually saw at least a little bit of sunshine Today which is always a good thing.  A few showers also continued at times, mainly over parts of Northwest Wisconsin.  Winds were out of the north or west at 5 to around 20 mph.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Short Term Forecast – Confidence:  High.

Tonight (July 28th)

Low pressure and an upper level trough will continue to exit to the east Tonight with high pressure moving into the Upper Midwest.  Clear to partly cloudy skies can be expected Tonight with patchy late night fog.  Scattered frost is even possible after Midnight, mainly over Northern Minnesota.  Low temperatures will be in the 40s to around 50 degrees, but some 30s are expected over the Iron Range, Borderland, and Arrowhead of Minnesota.  Winds will be out of the north or west at under 15 mph.

Monday and Monday Night (July 29th)

Highs Tomorrow will mainly be in the 70s under partly cloudy skies as high pressure controls our weather.  Monday Night looks pretty quiet under partly to mostly cloudy skies with lows in the 50s to around 60 degrees.  South or southwest winds are forecast at 5 to 15 mph.  

Extended Forecast – Confidence:  High.

Tuesday through Thursday (July 30th-August 1st)

A cold front will move through the Northland Tuesday/Wednesday.  This front could bring some showers and isolated thunderstorms to the area especially from Tuesday late Afternoon into midday Wednesday.  Highs are forecast to be in the 70s and lower 80s on Tuesday with mainly 70s for Wednesday and Thursday.  Lows Tuesday Night will be in the 50s and 60s with lows Wednesday Night in the 40s and 50s.

Long Range Forecast – Confidence:  High.

(August 2nd-7th)

Near to below average temperatures are forecast through this period and it’s looking like a pretty mellow, quiet, tranquil period in terms of the weather.

*Northwest mid-upper level flow will be a common fixture this week.  The map below is valid for Wednesday, July 31.  (Source, Weather Prediction Center)

















*This next map is valid for Sunday, August 3.  Again not much change as a NW flow is locked in across Minnesota.  Also of note is the “L” almost a polar vortex type feature which slides east from the Manitoba-Ontario border on Wednesday to Western Quebec 1 week from Today.  No the airmass won’t be arctic here in Minnesota, in fact temperatures look pretty nice at least thru Tuesday, but all the true summer-time heat will remain locked over the Southern U.S. this week.  (Source, Weather Prediction Center)


















5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR

.Tonight…  Mostly clear.  Low 40 to 45 Inland and in Superior.  Closer to 50 in Downtown Duluth.  Wind light and variable around 10 mph.  Note:  Record low temperature for Tonight is 42 degrees set in 1971 and 1925.

.Monday…  Mostly sunny.  High 72 to 77.  Wind south to southwest at 10 to 15 mph.

.Monday Night…  Partly cloudy.  Low 50 to 55.  Wind south to southwest at 5 to 15 mph.

.Tuesday…  Partly sunny.  High 75 to 80.

.Tuesday Night…  Mostly cloudy.  A few showers possible.  Low 55 to 60.

.Wednesday…  A few showers possible.  Considerable cloudiness.  High 70 to 75.

.Wednesday Night…  Mostly clear.  Low 50 to 55.

.Thursday…  Partly cloudy.  High 70 to 75.

Normal temperatures for Tomorrow

High:  77
Low:  56

Sunrise Monday:  5:45 AM CDT
Sunset Monday:   8:44 PM CDT

Tim


July 27, 2013 – Weather Report; Slight improvements in the weather on Sunday; 70s return on Monday.

/Issued 4:19 PM CDT, Saturday, July 27, 2013/

*850mb temperature analysis for 18z or 1 PM Today July 27, 2013.  Note how widespread the blue colors are across the Upper Midwest/Western Great Lakes Today, this represents temperatures of +2 to +4C at 5000 feet, also note the darker blue colors in parts of Northern Wisconsin and Western Upper Michigan This Afternoon, those are 0C 850mb temperatures, that’s unheard of for late July.  (Source, RAP model)













*Plenty cold at 500mb (18000 feet) too with temperatures of -18 to -20C across much of the Upper Midwest.  BRR!  (Source, RAP model)

















*RECORD EVENT*
Source:  National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota

Record low maximum temperature at International Falls, MN on July 26th.  The high temperature was 57 degrees which broke the previous record low maximum temperature of 62 degrees which was set in 1950.

Today’s Weather Summary for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

An unseasonably cold airmass continues to cover the Northland for a 2nd day in a row.  High temperatures Today were only in the upper 40s and 50s which is at least 15-25 degrees colder than it should be at this time of year.  Even more remarkable are the 850mb (5000 feet) temperatures which ranged from +1 to +5C as of 4 PM Today, that is very cold for late July.  An unusually strong upper low/trough maintains it’s hold on our area Today which resulted in gray skies and some rain at times.  Winds were out of the north or northwest at 10 to 25 mph.

*Here’s a 12 hour visible satellite loop from Today.  Note the pinwheeling nature to the clouds in Minnesota, Wisconsin and Upper Michigan Today.  An unusual July day.  (Source, Unisys Weather)















Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Short Term Forecast – Confidence:  High.

Tonight (July 27th)

Mostly cloudy skies are forecast to continue Tonight with some light rain and drizzle at times.  Lows will be in the 40s to around 50 degrees, but if skies can clear out enough then some 30s are certainly possible.  Winds will be out of the north or west at 5 to around 20 mph.

Sunday and Sunday Night (July 28th)

The weather should improve at least a little bit as the upper level low begins to pull farther away from the Northland.  Partial sunshine is expected on Sunday with a few showers still possible, mainly in Northwest Wisconsin.  Highs Tomorrow will be in the 60s, possibly even a few lower 70s in Northcentral Minnesota.  Lows Sunday Night will be in the 40s and 50s.  West or northwest winds are forecast at 5 to around 20 mph.

Extended Forecast – Confidence:  High.

Monday through Wednesday (July 29th-31st)

Temperatures look like they will trend back toward where they should be for this time of  year as we see more of a westerly flow develop vs. a NNW flow.  High temperatures are expected to be in the 70s Monday-Wednesday, might even see a few spots climb toward 80 Tuesday or Wednesday.  Lows Monday Night and Tuesday Night will mainly be in the 50s.  A few showers are possible on Tuesday, otherwise this period looks generally dry.

Long Range Forecast – Confidence:  High.

(August 1st-6th)

This entire period is looking mainly dry at the moment.  There will be a low pressure system passing west/south of the Northland late next week (1st-2nd) but right now it looks like the majority of the rain/thunder would stay south and out of our area.  Near to below average temperatures are forecast during this period.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR

.Tonight…  Considerable cloudiness.  Light rain and drizzle at times, mainly before Midnight.  Low 42 to 47.  Wind north to northwest at 10 to 20 mph.

.Sunday…  Partial sunshine.  High 65 to 70.  Wind northwest at 10 to 20 mph.

.Sunday Night…  Partly cloudy.  Low 45 to 50.  Wind west at 5 to 15 mph.

.Monday…  Partly cloudy.  High 70 to 75.

.Monday Night…  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 50 to 55.

.Tuesday…  A few showers possible.  Partly sunny.  High 70 to 75.

.Tuesday Night…  Partly to mostly cloudy.  A few showers possible.  Low 55 to 60.

.Wednesday…  Partly sunny.  High 73 to 78.

Normal temperatures for Today

High:  77
Low:  56

Sunrise Sunday:  5:44 AM CDT
Sunset Sunday:   8:45 PM CDT

Tim