/Issued 1:28 PM CDT, Friday, July 5, 2013/
*Slight risk for severe thunderstorms covers much of Minnesota (yellow area) for Saturday. The risk area is generally along and southwest of a line from Bigfork to Duluth and also includes extreme Western Wisconsin. (Source, NWS/Storm Prediction Center)
…Scattered shower/thunderstorm risk returning to the Northland this weekend…
-A moist and unstable airmass will cover NE Minnesota and NW Wisconsin through Sunday. Dew points are forecast to be in the 60s, possibly as high as the low 70s with PWS of 1.25″-1.80″. CAPE is forecast to range from 1000-3000 j/kg with Lifted Indicies of -3 to -8C.
-Lift along and ahead of a cold front should lead to some showers and thunderstorms at times beginning later This Afternoon and continuing into Saturday Night. This won’t be an all day washout, many dry hours are expected, so don’t cancel any outdoor plans you may have Today and Saturday. Remember to stay alert to changing weather conditions and be prepared to move indoors should a thunderstorm move into your area.
-The overall severe threat looks very low Today and Tonight with little to no wind shear to speak of plus very weak winds in the mid/upper levels of the atmosphere.
-There’s a slightly greater chance for isolated severe thunderstorms Saturday and Saturday Night with 0-6 KM Shear and Effective Bulk Shear forecast to increase to around 25-35 knots while a low level jet strengthens to 30-40 knots. Winds will also be changing direction with height. But, with that said the winds aloft still look kinda marginal as does the 0-6 KM and Effective Bulk Shear so I’m not overly concerned about a lot of severe weather in our area on Saturday, but a few hail or wind reports are possible.