/Issued 4:40 PM CDT, Thursday, July 11, 2013/
-Calibrated severe weather probability forecast for Friday PM per 15z SREF model from 7.11.13. Highest chances for possible severe t-storms late Friday Afternoon look like they will be in Western and Northern Minnesota, generally along a line from Alexandria to International Falls and points west from there. Chances for severe storms decrease in Central and Northeast Minnesota. (Source, NWS/Storm Prediction Center)
Today’s Weather Summary for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin
Ample amounts of sunshine Today with some smoke/haze continuing for the 2nd day in a row. High temperatures were in the 70s and 80s with comfortable dew point temperatures which were in the 50s to around 60 degrees. Winds were out of the south or east at 5 to 15 mph.
Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin
Short Term Forecast – Confidence: High.
Tonight (July 11th)
High pressure to our east and a warm front moving into the Northern Plains will lead to partly cloudy skies in the Northland Tonight with lows in the 50s and 60s. South or east winds are expected at 5 to 15 mph.
Friday and Friday Night (July 12th)
Moisture will increase this period with dew points getting into the 60s with PWS of 1.00″-1.75″. A cold front will remain west/northwest of our area with a strengthening southwesterly low level jet of 30-45 knots developing along and ahead of this boundary. Instability will also build, especially in Western parts of our area where CAPE of 1000-2500 j/kg is possible along with Lifted Indices of -3 to -6C. Partly to mostly cloudy skies are forecast this period with scattered showers and thunderstorms possible at times, again mainly affecting the Western-Northwestern parts of our area. Northwest Wisconsin, far Eastern Minnesota and Northeast Minnesota may avoid getting any rain during this period. Highs Tomorrow will be in the 70s and 80s with lows Tomorrow Night in the 50s and 60s. Winds will be out of the south or east at 10 to 20 mph.
Extended Forecast – Confidence: High.
Saturday through Monday (July 13th-15th)
This period will be characterized by an upper level ridge which will cover the Central Plains with a surface front nearly stationary from the Northern Plains to Upper Midwest. Abundant low level moisture consisting of dew points in the 60s and 70s with PWS of 1.25″-2.00″+ will be found over the Upper Midwest and with the front to our NW the stage will be set for periodic showers and thunderstorms from Saturday through Monday. At this time it appears that Northcentral and Westcentral Minnesota will be most vulnerable to get this activity with a lesser chance for NW Wisconsin, and possibly NE Minnesota. Severe thunderstorm chances don’t look that great in our area, but the potential is certainly there for torrential downpours where thunderstorms occur.
High temperatures will be in the 70s and 80s during this period with lows Saturday Night and Sunday Night in the 50s and 60s.
Long Range Forecast – Confidence: High.
Near to above average temperatures through this period with the potential for a few showers and thunderstorms at times, especially from the 16th-19th.
-500mb forecast for Sunday, July 14, 2013.
-500mb forecast for Thursday, July 18, 2013. Note how little change occurs in the mid level pattern between Sunday and Thursday. Strongest winds aloft confined to the Northwest-far Northern U.S. and Canada and an upper level ridge across the Rockies and Plains. (Source, Weather Prediction Center)
5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR
.Tonight… Mostly clear. Low 58 to 63. Wind south to southeast at 5 to 15 mph.
.Friday… Partly to mostly cloudy. High 80 to 85 but it may be cooler near Lake Superior. Wind south at 10 to 20 mph.
.Friday Night… Partly to mostly cloudy. A few showers or thunderstorms possible. Low 60 to 65. Wind south to southeast at 10 to 15 mph.
.Saturday… A few showers or thunderstorms possible. High 70 to 75.
.Saturday Night… A few showers or thunderstorms possible. Low 60 to 65.
.Sunday… A few showers or thunderstorms possible. High 70 to 75.
.Sunday Night… Partly cloudy. Low 60 to 65.
.Monday… Partly cloudy. High 73 to 78.
Normal temperatures for Today
Sunrise Friday: 5:27 AM CDT
Sunset Friday: 9:01 PM CDT