/Issued 12:02 PM CDT, Friday, July 12, 2013/
A cold front was over the Central Dakotas early This Afternoon with southerly winds causing increasing amounts of moisture and some instability to advect north into the Northland.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms should develop between 2-4 PM Today in Northwest Minnesota. This activity is forecast to spread east/southeast through Tonight with Northcentral Minnesota having the greatest chance for more significant rain/thunderstorm activity Tonight. Much of the convection may weaken once it moves into Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin Overnight.
*Future radar for 4 PM Today per 12z Hop/WRF model. Thunderstorms start to erupt later This Afternoon in Northwestern Minnesota.
*7 PM radar. Scattered storms move farther east, reaching Northcentral/Western parts of Minnesota This Evening.
*10 PM radar. Still some decent storms later This Evening from Western to Northern Minnesota per 12z Hop/WRF model.
Note: Thunderstorm intensity really decreases after 10 PM Tonight. So right now it looks like the bulk of the stronger convection will be west-northwest of Duluth/Superior This Evening and Overnight.
-The Storm Prediction Center does have much of Western and Northern Minnesota in a Slight Risk area for severe thunderstorms through Tonight. Large hail and damaging winds will be the main threats, but isolated tornadoes are also possible late This Afternoon and early This Evening in Northwestern Minnesota. Note: The slight risk area is roughly along and west of a line from Crane Lake to Hibbing to Grand Rapids to Brainerd.
-Deep low level moisture in place will also lead to torrential downpours where thunderstorms occur later Today and Tonight. Could be some localized flooding mainly in Northcentral Minnesota.