/Issued 4:26 PM CDT, Sunday, August 18, 2013/
*Here’s the 12z 4km NAM surface temperature forecast valid for Tuesday, August 20, 2013. Mid 90s for Duluth. 100-105F across much of Central/Eastern North Dakota and South Dakota into Western Minnesota. Might be a little extreme, but will just have to wait and see.
-Friday’s high temperature of just 67 degrees in Atlanta, Georgia was only the 16th time since 1878 that the high temperature failed to reach at least 70 degrees during the month of August. By the way, the average high temp in Atlanta on the 16th of August was 88 degrees. (Source, Paul Douglas St. Cloud Times)
-It’s been a very quiet thunderstorm season in Duluth with just 15 thunderstorm days so far in 2013 and 0 thunderstorm days thus far in August. By this time last year, there had already been 40 thunderstorm days. The annual average is around 30-35 t-storm days.
-Today is the 4th day in a row with a high temperature at or above 80F at Duluth, Minnesota. July 15-19 and June 23-27 (5 days) are the only 2 longer streaks, and this should be tied on Monday and broken on Tuesday.
-Over 1 week (Aug. 8) and a few days and counting since the last time Duluth had at least 0.01″ of rain.
Will summer 2013 have more 90 degree days than summer of 2012 at Duluth, MN? Stats below…
So far this year: 3 days at or above 90 degrees.
2012 total: 3 days at or above 90 degrees.
Number of days at or above 80 degrees at Duluth, MN.
2013 (thru August 18th) 29 days.
2012 (thru August 18th) 38 days. Note: Total for the year was 48 days.
Today’s Weather Summary for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin
High pressure to our south/east and a cold front across the Northern Plains maintained a warm southwesterly flow over the Northland Today with hazy/smoke filled skies. High temperatures were in the 70s and 80s with tolerable dew point temperatures in the 50s to lower 60s. Southwest winds were quite gusty for the 2nd day in a row with wind speeds of 10-25 mph with higher gusts.
Temperature and precipitation report for Duluth, Minnesota (Airport location)
August 11-17, 2013
8/11: 79 degrees/4 degrees above normal
8/12: 77 degrees/2 degrees above normal
8/13: 72 degrees/3 degrees below normal
8/14: 75 degrees/Normal
8/15: 80 degrees/5 degrees above normal
8/16: 83 degrees/8 degrees above normal
8/17: 82 degrees/8 degrees above normal
8/11: 55 degrees/Normal
8/12: 47 degrees/8 degrees below normal
8/13: 47 degrees/8 degrees below normal
8/14: 43 degrees/12 degrees below normal
8/15: 50 degrees/5 degrees below normal
8/16: 52 degrees/3 degrees below normal
8/17: 58 degrees/3 degrees above normal
Total precipitation: Trace
*Temperature departure map for August 11-17, 2013. (Source, Midwest Regional Climate Center)
*Precipitation departure map for August 11-17, 2013. (Source, Midwest Regional Climate Center)
Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin
Short Term Forecast – Confidence: High.
Tonight through Monday Night (August 18-19)
A cold front looks like it will weaken as it moves into the Upper Midwest on Monday. Still enough moisture and instability near this boundary to touch off a few showers or thunderstorms at times mainly across Northern Minnesota from Tonight through Tomorrow Night, the remainder of the Northland looks generally dry during this period. Lows Tonight and Monday Night will be in the 50s and 60s, but it’s not out of the question that a few locales stay around 70 degrees Monday Night. High temperatures Tomorrow are forecast to be in the 80s and 90s. Dew points should increase a little more on Monday with dp’s generally in the 60s so it will feel a little more uncomfortable compared to how it felt yesterday and Today. Winds during this period will be out of the south or southwest at 10 to 20 mph.
Extended Forecast – Confidence: High.
Tuesday through Thursday (August 20-22)
Tuesday looks steamy as a cold front remains west/north of our area resulting in a gusty/hot SW wind. High temperatures will be in the 80s and 90s with dew points in the 60s. Lows Tuesday Night will be in the 60s and 70s.
Changes take place by Thursday, but 1st on Wednesday expect another sultry type day, especially in Northwest Wisconsin and Eastern Minnesota as these areas stay ahead of the cold front the longest which results in high temperatures in the 80s and 90s along with dew points in the 60s to around 70 degrees. Northern Minnesota will have highs in the 70s and 80s with less humid conditions developing as a cold front passes through Northern Minnesota during the Morning hours of Wednesday.
Thursday looks cooler with much lower dew points, high temperatures are forecast to be in the 70s to around 80 degrees with lows in the 50s.
There could be a few showers or thunderstorms over Northern Minnesota Tuesday Night, and then possibly a slightly better chance on Wednesday over Eastern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin, but this will depend on when the cold front moves through those areas, the later the frontal passage is the better if you want some rain.
Long Range Forecast – Confidence: High.
Another warm period is shaping up from the 24th-28th the way it looks now as an upper level high builds/expands across the Plains, Upper Midwest and Great Lakes which will put us in a SW flow aloft so several more days of 80s, perhaps even some 90 degree temperatures seem like a good bet from the 24th-28th. As for rain chances, those look pretty slim at the moment with the greater chances staying west/north of the Northland.
5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR
.Tonight… Hazy. Partly cloudy. Low 60 to 65. Wind southwest at 5 to 15 mph with higher gusts This Evening.
.Monday… Very warm. Partly cloudy. High 85 to 90. Wind southwest at 10 to 20 mph.
.Monday Night… Partly cloudy. Low 60 to 65. Wind southwest at 10 to 15 mph.
.Tuesday… Hot. Partly cloudy. High 90 to 95.
.Tuesday Night… Partly cloudy. Low 65 to 70.
.Wednesday… Partly to mostly sunny. Showers or thunderstorms possible. High 85 to 90.
.Wednesday Night… Partly cloudy. Low 55 to 60.
.Thursday… Partly cloudy. High 75 to 80.
Normal temperatures for Today
Sunrise Monday: 6:12 AM CDT
Sunset Monday: 8:12 PM CDT