/Issued 7:25 PM CDT, Tuesday, August 20, 2013/
-The map below is a 240 hour rainfall forecast valid from August 20th thru 1 PM August 30th, 2013 per 18z GFS model. The pattern setting up this weekend into next week has the potential to be wet and stormy at times, but will it be squarely over the Northland or will it setup more to our north or south? Stay tuned. This current run puts NE Minnesota and NW Wisconsin squarely in the zone for episodes of heavy rain with amounts ranging from 1-5″.
Source: National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota
-A record high temperature at Duluth, Minnesota Today August 20, 2013. The high temperature reached 91 degrees breaking the previous record of 89 degrees set in 1976.
Weather Tidbits for Duluth, Minnesota
*Today marks the 6th consecutive day with a high temperature of at least 80 degrees. This is the longest streak of the summer. Note: The previous longest streaks were both 5 days. (July 15-19) (June 23-27)
*4 days so far this summer at or above 90 degrees. This beats last summer’s total which was 3 days with a maximum temperature of at least 90F.
Today’s Weather Summary for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin
A very warm and muggy day throughout the Northland with a mix of sun/clouds along with more hazy conditions. Highs were in the upper 80s to low/mid 90s with dew points in the 60s and lower 70s which caused heat index temperatures to climb into the 90s. Winds Today were out of the south or southwest at 10 to 25 mph.
Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin
Short Term Forecast – Confidence: High.
Tonight (August 20)
Another uncomfortable night for sleeping as the Northland stays ahead of a cold front which keeps us in a warm and muggy southwesterly flow. Speaking of that cold front it was moving into the Eastern Dakotas as of 7 PM This Evening. Plenty of instability and moisture will be found along and ahead of that front Tonight so there could be a few showers and thunderstorms after Midnight as a low level jet increases just a bit, although coverage of any precipitation should stay fairly spotty as the atmosphere is pretty capped. Lows Tonight will be in the 60s and 70s with south or west winds at 10 to 20 mph.
Wednesday and Wednesday Night (August 21)
A cold front will pass NW-SE across the Northland. Looks like this front will move through Northeast Minnesota before Noon Wednesday and will head through Northwestern Wisconsin during the Noon-4 PM time frame. A very moist and unstable airmass will continue to be found along and ahead of this front Tomorrow so a few showers and thunderstorms could certainly develop. Spotty storms are possible Tomorrow Morning over the entire Northland, and then a few additional storms may redevelop Tomorrow Afternoon generally in Northwest Wisconsin. Note: It does appear that the greater chance for thunderstorms, possible severe weather and heavy rain will extend from Southcentral Minnesota into Central/Northeast Wisconsin based on current model data, so in other words much of the Northland could miss out on getting any rain once again.
High temperatures Tomorrow will be on the warm side once again with 80s and a few 90s expected. Dew points will be falling though once the cold front moves through. Expect 60 and 70 degree dew points 1 more day in Eastern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin with a much more comfortable airmass consisting of 50 degree dew points across Northern Minnesota. Lows Wednesday Night will be much more tolerable compared to the past few nights as low temperatures drop into the 40s and 50s. Winds during this period will be out of the west or northwest at 10 to 25 mph.
-Dew point temperature forecast valid for 1 PM Wednesday, August 21, 2013 per 18z Duluth WRF model. Still very sticky from Eastern Minnesota into Northwest Wisconsin and along the North Shore of Lake Superior with midday dew points expected to be in the 60s to lower 70s. A much drier airmass covers Northern Minnesota with dew points in the 40s and 50s! That drier air will spread farther south/east Wednesday Afternoon.
Extended Forecast – Confidence: High.
Thursday through Saturday (August 22-24)
Mainly dry weather is forecast Thursday and Friday as high pressure passes through the region. High temps will be in the 70s and 80s on both those days with lows in the 40s and 50s Thursday Night and in the 50s and 60s Friday Night. Moisture increases on Saturday as south winds develop once again, highs on Saturday will mainly be in the 80s. A few showers or thunderstorms are also possible on Saturday.
Long Range Forecast – Confidence: High.
Looks like above average temperatures will be the rule during the final week of August. A large upper level high pressure ridge will setup to our south with a SW flow aloft to our west/north. The pattern that may develop would be supportive for the development of occasional showers and thunderstorms with possible heavy rain and severe weather at times from the 25th-30th. Exactly what areas are affected by these potential storm clusters is anyone’s guess this far out in time. Stay tuned.
-This is a hot looking pattern for the Plains and possibly for Minnesota and Wisconsin.
This 1st map is for Friday, August 23, 2013.
-2nd map is valid for Tuesday, August 27, 2013.
The setup includes a large ridge of high pressure (“H”) on the map. This ridge will result in hot and muggy and mainly dry conditions as the atmosphere remains capped near and underneath where the ridge sets up. Locations west/north of the ridge may see thunderstorm clusters every now and then which could temper the heat to some extent. (Source, Weather Prediction Center)
5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR
.Tonight… Very warm and muggy. Hazy. Partly cloudy. Low 65 to 70. Wind southwest at 10 to 20 mph.
.Wednesday… Very warm but turning less humid. Partly cloudy. High 85 to 90. Wind west to northwest at 15 to 25 mph. Note: Record high temperature for Wednesday is 90 degrees set in 1976.
.Wednesday Night… Cooler, much more pleasant for sleeping. Mostly clear. Low 52 to 57. Wind north to northwest at 10 to 20 mph.
.Thursday… Partly cloudy. High 78 to 83.
.Thursday Night… Partly cloudy. Low 50 to 55.
.Friday… Partly cloudy. High 75 to 80.
.Friday Night… Partly cloudy. Low 55 to 60.
.Saturday… Partly sunny. High 80 to 85.
Normal temperatures for Tomorrow
Sunrise Wednesday: 6:14 AM CDT
Sunset Wednesday: 8:08 PM CDT