/Issued 4:15 PM CDT, Thursday, August 22, 2013/
*Here’s the 6-10 day 564 (left image) and 582 meter (right image) forecast from the Climate Prediction Center. The black line and red line are the 2 you wanna pay attention too.
Black line=The normal position at this time of year.
Red line=Where the 564 and 582 meter heights are forecast to be during the next 6-10 days. So when comparing the 2, one can see that the 564 and 582 meter heights are a bit north compared to where they should be for late August.
*80 degree streak continues*
The temperature did reach 80 degrees (briefly) This Afternoon at the Duluth Airport making August 22 the 8th consecutive day with a maximum temperature of at least 80F.
Source: Paul Douglas; St. Cloud Times.
-2013 has been the 6th warmest year on record – globally.
-341 months in a row that the global temperature has been above the 20th century average.
-July 2013 was the 6th warmest July worldwide since records began in 1880.
-February, 1985 was the last below average temperature month – globally.
Drought worsening across Minnesota and Wisconsin.
Source: Climate Prediction Center
It’s hard to believe after the 50″+ snow we had during April that we’d be talking about a drought, but here we are in late August and yes the drought is getting worse with each passing week.
-Abnormally dry conditions cover 80% of the state which is up from 31% last week.
-Moderate drought covers 10% of the state which is up from 1% last week.
-Abnormally dry conditions cover 41% of the state which is up from 23% last week.
-Moderate drought covers 1% of the state, up from 0% last week.
*Minnesota drought monitor as of August 20, 2013. Duluth is now in moderate drought.
*Wisconsin drought monitor as of August 20, 2013.
Precipitation stats for Duluth, Minnesota (Airport location)
*August rain total (thru the 22nd) 0.55″ which is around 2.00″ below average.
*Rain total since June 1: 6.82″ and this is 3.72″ below average.
*Precipitation total since January 1: 20.16″ which is 0.70″ above average.
Note: Summer rains are usually hit or miss, some spots get a significant amount, others barely get a drop. The only exceptions are when a large thunderstorm complex develops and affects almost everyone. We saw plenty of thunderstorm clusters back in June, but since then the trend has been for much drier conditions, with far Northern Minnesota being the only real exception as that part of the Northland has had a slightly more active weather pattern.
*Departure from normal precipitation map for July 1-August 21, 2013. Legend is on the right. (Source, National Weather Service Duluth, MN)
*Total precipitation departure from normal map for the period June 26-August 20, 2013. (Source, National Weather Service Duluth, MN)
Today’s Weather Summary for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin
High pressure (1024mb) was centered over North Dakota late This Afternoon with a cold front down in Iowa. Dew points have crashed across the Northland Today thanks to northerly winds ushering in 40-50 degree dew points vs. the 60s and 70s we saw the past few days. High temperatures were in the 70s and 80s Today with a good deal of sunshine.
Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin
Short Term Forecast – Confidence: High.
Tonight through Friday Night (August 22-23)
High pressure will dominate our weather Tonight and Friday. Mostly clear skies are on tap Tonight with lows in the 40s and 50s with north or east winds at 5 to 15 mph. Expect partly to mostly sunny skies on Friday with highs in the 70s and 80s. Dew points not a problem Tomorrow so conditions should be very similar to what we had Today. Lows Friday Night will be in the 50s to lower 60s under partly to mostly cloudy skies. Winds Tomorrow and Tomorrow Night will be from the south or east at 10 to 15 mph.
Extended Forecast – Confidence: High.
Saturday through Monday (August 24-26)
A warm front will lift north into the Upper Midwest and likely stall out or fluctuate north/south a bit during this period. Meanwhile an upper level ridge will strengthen and expand across the Plains, Great Lakes, and Upper Midwest while the main jet stream sets up farther to our west/north.
There’s going to be quite a bit of instability that pushes into our area Saturday-Monday with lots of moisture as well with dew points rising into the 60s, perhaps even the low 70s with PWS of 1.25-2.00″. So the instability and moisture combined with a surface front near our area might be enough to trigger some showers and thunderstorms at times from Saturday through Monday. The problem in getting convection to form will be the cap (warm layer aloft) 850mb temperatures are forecast to range from +20 to +22C with 700mb temperatures climbing to +10 to +12C…This would make it quite difficult for thunderstorms to develop should temperatures get that warm.
As for surface temps, the heat is on! High temperatures on Saturday will be in the 80s to around 90 degrees with cooler temperatures along the North Shore of Lake Superior. Highs on Sunday are forecast to be in the 80s and 90s with highs on Monday in the 80s with a few 90s possible once again. Low temperatures will be balmy with 60s and 70s expected both Saturday Night and Sunday Night.
Note: Parts of the Northland may be under some sort of heat headline later this weekend.
Long Range Forecast – Confidence: High.
(August 27-September 1)
There really isn’t a shift in the weather pattern showing up during this period. Looks like will continue to have a large upper level ridge sitting over the Plains with the main jet stream to our west/north. Low pressure disturbances and surface fronts riding up and around that ridge could lead to the occasional thunderstorm cluster across parts of the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest through this period otherwise it looks fairly warm and rather humid with above average temperatures expected.
*7-day rainfall forecast valid thru Thursday, August 29, 2013. There’s still potential for significant amounts of rain at times this weekend and next week over parts of the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest. My fear, however, is that much of this activity will stay north of Duluth and Superior. Will see… (Source, Weather Prediction Center)
5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR
.Tonight… Clear. Low 51 to 56. Wind east around 10 mph.
.Friday… Mostly sunny. High 77 to 82. Wind south to southeast at 10 to 15 mph.
.Friday Night… Partly cloudy. Low 55 to 60. Wind south to southeast at 5 to 15 mph.
.Saturday… Partly sunny. High 80 to 85.
.Saturday Night… Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 65 to 70.
.Sunday… Partly cloudy. High 90 to 95.
.Sunday Night… Partly cloudy. Low 68 to 73.
.Monday… Partly cloudy. High 85 to 90.
Normal temperatures for Today
Sunrise Friday: 6:17 AM CDT
Sunset Friday: 8:05 PM CDT