/Issued 12:30 PM CDT, Monday, August 26, 2013/
-Areas in green are under a flash flood watch from This Evening through Tuesday AM. More details below…
*FLASH FLOOD WATCH*
Source: National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota
A portion of Northwest Wisconsin.
7 PM This Evening through Tuesday Morning.
Counties included in the watch:
Some cities included in the watch:
Minong WI…Spooner WI…Shell Lake WI…Hayward WI…Exeland WI…Winter WI…Park Falls WI…Phillips WI…and Ogema WI.
Heavy rain occurred early This Morning with totals of 2-4″ in the watch area, and another round of thunderstorms producing locally heavy rain is possible Tonight. Rainfall totals of 1-4″ are possible Tonight and this on top of the heavy rain from early This Morning could result in flash flooding.
A flash flood watch means that conditions may develop that lead to flash flooding. Flash flooding is a very dangerous situation. You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action should flash flood warnings be issued.
-Total rainfall forecast ending at 7 AM Tuesday. Some hefty amounts showing up in a narrow corridor from Western through Central and Eastern Minnesota into Northern Wisconsin with totals ranging from 1 to as much as 4″ possible. Notice the sharp cutoff and how Duluth sits on the border between heavier rain and much less rain. (Source, 12z Hi-Res 4km NAM model)
Brief early Afternoon weather discussion:
A frontal boundary over Central Minnesota should remain in that general area through Tonight. Abundant moisture and instability pooling near this front combined with decent convergence should lead to 1 or more rounds of showers and thunderstorms from late This Afternoon through early Tuesday Morning.
The main axis for this convection looks like it’ll be across Central/Eastern Minnesota into Northern Wisconsin…Or generally along and south of a Bemidji-Two Harbors line, and along and north of the Interstate 94 corridor in Central Minnesota.
There is a threat for severe thunderstorms as well with stronger wind shear compared to what we had on Sunday, the mid level winds are also stronger Today, but the low level jet is weaker – whether or not that plays a role or not remains to be seen.
Large hail and damaging winds are the main severe weather threats later Today and Tonight across Central/Eastern Minnesota and Northern Wisconsin. Frequent lightning is also expected along with heavy rain due to the abundant moisture.
Stay tuned for more updates.
-Slight risk for severe thunderstorms through Tonight in the areas in yellow. (Source, NWS Storm Prediction Center)