/Issued 3:42 PM CDT, Friday, August 30, 2013/
*There is a risk for a few strong to severe thunderstorms over much of Western, Central, Northern, and Eastern Minnesota from late Saturday Afternoon into Saturday Evening. Keep this in mind if you have outdoor plans. You may need to alternate your plans a bit if threatening weather moves in. Image below is the calibrated severe thunderstorm forecast for Saturday PM per 15z SREF model.
Weather Tidbits for Duluth, MN (Airport location)
-The high temperature on August 29 failed to reach 80 degrees for the 1st time since August 14. This means that the consecutive number of days with a high temperature of at least 80F ended at 14 days. Note: Missed tying the record for consecutive days at or above 80F by just 1 day. Oh that mother nature can be cruel sometimes.
Rainfall report for August 29, 2013
Source: National Weather Service Duluth, MN
Duluth, MN: 0.41″
International Falls, MN: 0.89″
Grand Marais, MN: 1.00″
Hibbing, MN: 1.42″
Hayward, WI: 0.82″
Cass Lake, MN: 1.40″
Togo, MN: 0.88″
Walker, MN: 0.30″
Cook, MN: 1.44″
Duluth, MN: 0.33″ NWS total.
Embarrass, MN: 0.34″
Grand Portage, MN: 1.44″
Kabetogama, MN: 0.82″
3 E of Orr, MN: 0.79″
Silver Bay, MN: 0.85″
2 S of Tower, MN: 0.36″
Finland, MN: 0.25″
Ashland, WI: 1.14″
Gile, WI: 1.51″
Gurney, WI: 1.40″
Park Falls, WI: 0.39″
Upson, WI: 1.05″
4 W of Clam Lake, WI: 0.50″
Gordon, WI: 1.12″
Solon Springs, WI: 0.43″
Winter, WI: 2.29″
Today’s Weather Summary for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin
A much calmer weather day across the Northland as Thursday’s system moves off to our east. In it’s wake, skies were sunny to partly cloudy Today with pleasant late summer temperatures in the 70s and 80s. Dew points are also lower compared to recent days with 50s and 60s covering the area Today. Winds were out of the north or east at 10 to 20 mph.
Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin
Short Term Forecast – Confidence: High.
Tonight (August 30)
Clear to partly cloudy skies are expected with patchy fog possible late. A few showers are also possible mainly after 3 AM along a Bemidji – International Falls line and points west. Lows Tonight will be in the 50s and 60s with winds out of the north, east, or south at 5 to 15 mph.
Saturday and Saturday Night (August 31)
Looks like Saturday will be the last real warm day at least for a little while. Low pressure will be centered NW of our area while a cold front moves east and through the Upper Midwest. The airmass along and ahead of this front should be characterized with 60 degree dew points along with 1000-2000 j/kg CAPE and Lifted Indices of -2 to -7C. The combination of the cold front and an upper level disturbance moving into this warm, moist and unstable airmass should give way to scattered showers and thunderstorms in our area especially from late Saturday Afternoon into early Sunday Morning. Note: Storms should initiate in the Western/Northern sections and push south/east thereafter.
There is a risk for a few severe thunderstorms especially in North Central and East Central Minnesota late Saturday Afternoon/Evening with strong winds and hail being the primary hazards. Effective Bulk Shear and 0-6 KM Shear of 30-40 knots combined with 40-60 knot mid level winds will support a severe weather risk over portions of the Northland, but the potential for supercells and tornadoes looks low due to much weaker 1km shear/helicity values, not nearly as impressive as what we had in place 24 hours ago.
Even if severe thunderstorms don’t happen, there’s always a risk of lightning with any thunderstorm, so remember when you hear thunder move indoors. When thunder roars get indoors!
Expect partly to mostly cloudy skies Tomorrow and Tomorrow Night with highs in the 70s and 80s with lows in the 50s and 60s. South or southwest winds are forecast at 10 to 25 mph on Saturday with winds turning to the north/west Tomorrow Night at 10 to 20 mph.
*Cold front (blue line on the map) is forecast to stretch from about Redwood Falls in Southwest Minnesota to International Falls in Northern Minnesota at 7 PM Saturday. A threat for scattered rain/thunderstorms will exist anywhere along and ahead of this cold front. (Source, Weather Prediction Center)
Extended Forecast – Confidence: High.
Sunday through Tuesday (September 1-3)
Looking a little brisk on Sunday with low pressure to our NE and high pressure to our NW. Northerly flow between these features will drag a cooler airmass into the region with highs on Sunday only in the 50s and 60s with a few 70s in East Central Minnesota and Northern Wisconsin. Lows Sunday Night will be in the 40s and 50s with 30s in the typical cold spots where patchy frost is possible Labor Day Morning. Early next week looks dry at this time with highs on Monday in the 60s and 70s with lows Monday Night in the 40s and 50s. Highs on Tuesday will be mainly in the 70s.
Long Range Forecast – Confidence: High.
Quite a cold shot coming to Central, Northern, and Eastern Canada the middle of next week…Right now it looks like the Northland will only get a glancing blow with this next shot of cool air with the coldest temps expected to stay well to our N/NE next Wednesday-Thursday (4th-5th) Warmer temperatures are possible from the 5th-9th along with a chance for a few showers or thunderstorms, especially from the 7th-9th. Near to below average temperatures from the 4th-5th. Near to above average temperatures from the 6th-9th.
5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR
.Tonight… Mostly clear. Patchy fog possible late. Low 55 to 60. Wind east at 5 to 15 mph.
.Saturday… Mild. Partly to mostly sunny. High 81 to 86. Wind southwest at 10 to 20 mph.
.Saturday Night… Scattered showers or thunderstorms, mainly before Midnight. Mostly cloudy. Low 55 to 60. Wind south to southwest at 5 to 15 mph, becoming northwest at 10 to 20 mph Overnight.
.Sunday… Cooler. Partly sunny. High 67 to 72.
.Sunday Night… Mostly clear. Low 45 to 50.
.Labor Day… Mostly sunny. High 65 to 70.
.Monday Night… Mostly clear. Low 42 to 47.
.Tuesday… Partly cloudy. High 70 to 75.
Normal temperatures for Today
Sunrise Saturday: 6:27 AM CDT
Sunset Saturday: 7:50 PM CDT