September 30, 2013 – Weather Report. Goodbye September (warm/dry month in Duluth) Hello October. Latest on the possible late week/weekend storm.

/Issued 3:56 PM CDT, Monday, September 30, 2013/

**Lots of chatter lately on a possible storm for later this week.  The storm is still showing up in the computer models Today, but the strength, track, and timing continues to be uncertain.

-Here’s the surface map forecast for Friday, October 4, 2013 per Weather Prediction Center.  A deepening area of low pressure along the Nebraska/Iowa state line and a warm front running NE into Southern Minnesota and North Central Wisconsin.  Gusty winds and rainy north/west of that warm front on Friday.














-Surface map forecast for Saturday, October 5, 2013 per Weather Prediction Center.  A deep area of low pressure between Ironwood and Marquette, Michigan with gusty winds and chilly rain (possibly some snow) northwest/west of the surface low in Northern Minnesota.  As I stated above, and again down below in this post the storm track differs between the computer models.  The WPC is actually quicker and on a more south/east track Today.

















-This certainly caught my attention.  This image is from Today’s 12z European model and is valid for Saturday, October 5, 2013.  850mb wind forecast, note the yellow and red colors…40-50+ knot winds at around 5,000 feet.  Some of that will likely mix down to the surface, even more alarming is the fact that the EURO shows cold air causing the rain to change to snow Friday/Saturday over the Northern Plains into Western/Northwest Minnesota.  Blizzard?  Will just have to wait and see…
















Climate normals for October at Duluth, Minnesota (Airport location)

Normal precipitation:  2.85″
Normal snowfall:  2.3″

Sunrise on the 1st:  7:08 AM CDT
Sunrise on the 31st:  7:50 AM CDT

Sunset on the 1st:  6:48 PM CDT
Sunset on the 31st:  5:54 PM CDT

Today’s Weather Summary for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

A strong area of low pressure averaging 984mb was sitting along the Alberta/Saskatchewan Province border late This Afternoon with a 998mb low over Central South Dakota.  A cold front was over Northwestern Minnesota.  Another nice early fall day as we wrap up the month of September.  Skies ranged from mostly sunny to partly cloudy with high temperatures mainly in the 70s along with southwest winds at 10 to 20 mph.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Short Term Forecast – Confidence:  High.

Tonight (September 30)

Partly to mostly cloudy skies will be found in the Northland.  A cold front will move east and is forecast to reach Northwest Wisconsin by dawn.  A few rain showers might develop Tonight in Northern Minnesota with dry weather elsewhere.  Lows will mainly be in the 50s with winds out of the south or west at 10 to 20 mph.

*19z (2pm) HRRR model run cranks out generally less than 0.10″ of rain later Tonight across Northern Minnesota.  International Falls, Northome, Ely, Crane Lake, Grand Rapids, Bigfork, Cass Lake, and Walker are just a few cities that may see a shower or two later Tonight.















Tuesday and Tuesday Night (October 1)

Looks dry during this period with strong low pressure centered to our north and a cold front to our south/east.  Highs will be in the 60s and 70s with lows in the 30s and 40s.  Winds will be out of the west at 10 to 20 mph with higher gusts possible during the day.

Extended Forecast – Confidence:  Medium.

Wednesday through Friday (October 2-4)

Could be an active mid-late week period.  An upper level trough is expected to move into the Rockies and Plains with a surface low developing across the Western/Central Plains later this week.  The cold front that’ll pass through the Northland Tonight is forecast to stall out well to our south during the Wednesday-Friday period.  Moisture flowing up and over that boundary should result in periods of rain over the Upper Midwest beginning sometime on Wednesday and lasting through Friday.  A few thunderstorms are possible as well, but that threat looks greatest south of the Northland based on current model data.

High temperatures will be in the 50s and 60s on Wednesday and in the 40s and 50s Thursday and Friday. Lows will be in the 40s and 50s Wednesday Night and Thursday Night.

Long Range Forecast – Confidence:  Medium.

(October 5-10)

The potential is still there for a pretty strong storm to affect the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes later this week.  Computer models still differ a bit as to the exact track, strength, and timing of this potential storm so stay tuned to later updates.

It’s possible this system will affect us in 2 waves.  The 1st round of rain could hit us late Wednesday into a part of Thursday before a brief break, and then the next round of precipitation associated with the main storm affects us sometime Friday into Saturday.

How strong the winds will be is yet to be determined as that will depend on the track of the low and how deep of a system it will be.

As for snow…There is still a chance that far Northern Minnesota and possibly the Arrowhead will see the rain mix with or turn to snow sometime on Saturday, but right now this doesn’t look like a huge snow event anywhere in the Northland.  Again, things could change so stay tuned.

Another system may affect the area sometime between the 6th-8th with possible rain.  Near to below average temperatures are forecast through this period.

*Based on current model projections much of Minnesota and Wisconsin and neighboring states could pick up 1-3″ of precipitation later this week.  (Source, Weather Prediction Center)













5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR

.Tonight…  Partly cloudy.  Low 53 to 58.  Wind south to southwest at 10 to 20 mph.

.Tuesday…  Breezy.  Partly cloudy.  High 68 to 73.  Wind west at 15 to 25 mph.

.Tuesday Night…  Partly cloudy.  Low 42 to 47.  Wind west at 10 to 15 mph.

.Wednesday…  Partly to mostly cloudy.  High 63 to 68.

.Wednesday Night…  Showers possible.  Mostly cloudy.  Low 45 to 50.

.Thursday…  Showers possible.  Mostly cloudy.  High 53 to 58.

.Thursday Night…  Showers possible.  Mostly cloudy.  Low 45 to 50.

.Friday…  Showers possible.  Mostly cloudy.  High 50 to 55.

Normal temperatures for Today

High:  59
Low:  40

Sunrise Tuesday:  7:08 AM CDT
Sunset Tuesday:   6:48 PM CDT

Tim

September 29, 2013 – Weather Report. Nice weather continues into Tuesday; Storm potential later this week.

/Issued 3:29 PM CDT, Sunday, September 29, 2013/

-All eyes focused over the Pacific, but especially over the Gulf of Alaska where a powerhouse jet of 130+ knots is slamming into the Pacific Northwest.  Lots of energy out that way which will eventually move into the Rockies and Plains from mid-late week.  A ‘major’ storm could develop and impact the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes later this week.














Temperature and precipitation report for Duluth, Minnesota (Airport location)

September 22-28, 2013

High temperatures:

9/22:  60F/2 degrees below normal
9/23:  66F/4 degrees above normal
9/24:  71F/10 degrees above normal
9/25:  69F/8 degrees above normal
9/26:  67F/6 degrees above normal
9/27:  71F/11 degrees above normal
9/28:  70F/10 degrees above normal

Low temperatures:

9/22:  41F/3 degrees below normal
9/23:  50F/7 degrees above normal
9/24:  49F/6 degrees above normal
9/25:  48F/6 degrees above normal
9/26:  52F/10 degrees above normal
9/27:  58F/16 degrees above normal
9/28:  43F/2 degrees above normal

Total precipitation:  0.36″
Average:  0.92″
Departure:  -0.56″

-Temperature departure map for September 22-28, 2013.  (Source, Midwest Regional Climate Center)
















-Precipitation departure map for September 22-28, 2013.  (Source, Midwest Regional Climate Center)




















Weather Tidbits for Duluth, MN (Airport location)

-Today is day number 97 in 2013 with a high temperature of at least 70 degrees.  The annual average is 85 days.  Will we hit the 100 day mark this year?  Gonna be close!

-So far this September there’s been 13 days with a high temperature of at least 70 degrees and 2 days with a high temperature of at least 80 degrees.  Last September stats:  11 days at or above 70F and 4 days at or above 80F.

-I don’t think will hit 80 again until next spring, assuming we don’t then September 7, 2013 was our last 80 degree day compared to September 11 last year.  As for the last 70 degree date.  In 2012 it was on October 3.  This year, possibly October 1?  Will have to wait and see.

Rainfall report for September 28, 2013
Source:  National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota

Duluth, MN:  0.35″
International Falls, MN:  0.38″
Brainerd, MN:  0.55″
Grand Marais, MN:  0.30″
Hibbing, MN:  0.31″
Hayward, WI:  0.45″
Dixon Lake, MN:  0.50″
Togo, MN:  0.39″
Cook, MN:  0.29″
Duluth, MN (NWS)  0.37″
Embarrass, MN:  0.44″
Floodwood, MN:  0.26″
Kabetogama, MN:  0.55″
3 E of Orr, MN:  0.34″
Gurney, WI:  0.27″
Upson, WI:  0.32″
4 W of Clam Lake, WI:  0.26″
Sarona, WI:  0.41″

-Rainfall map from Saturday, September 28, 2013.  (Source, Midwest Regional Climate Center)














Today’s Weather Summary for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

A gorgeous late September day under mostly sunny skies.  High temperatures were in the upper 60s to lower 70s with southwest winds at 10 to 20 mph.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Short Term Forecast – Confidence:  High.

Tonight through Monday Night (September 29-30)

Deep low pressure averaging 985mb will remain over Saskatchewan during this period with a cold front over the Northern Plains.  A mild SW flow will persist in our area out ahead of the cold front to our west.  Expect partly cloudy skies through Monday Night.  Low temperatures will be in the 40s and 50s with highs Tomorrow mainly in the 70s.  There might be a few showers in far Northern Minnesota Tomorrow Night, but that chance looks pretty low at the moment.  Winds during this period will be out of the southwest at 5 to 15 mph with higher gusts possible.

Extended Forecast – Confidence:  High.

Tuesday through Thursday (October 1-3)

A cold front will move through the Northland on Tuesday and will then settle south and stall out Wednesday and Thursday as low pressure develops across the Rockies/Plains.  Dry weather on Tuesday, and then rain chances return starting on Wednesday, but more so on Thursday the way it looks now.  High temperatures will be in the 60s and 70s on Tuesday.  50s and 60s on Wednesday and Thursday with some 40s possible in Northern Minnesota.  Lows will mainly be in the 40s Tuesday Night with 40s and a few 50s Wednesday Night.

Long Range Forecast – Confidence:  Medium.

(October 4-9)

Still looking at a potential storm system affecting the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes between the 3rd-5th.  Computer models are at odds as to the strength, track, and timing of this potential fall storm so stay tuned to later updates.

Wind and rain will be possible across the Northland on Friday and possibly into Saturday as well (4th-5th)  Might get enough cold air to wrap into this storm for a possible rain/snow mix, mainly in far Northern Minnesota and Arrowhead from Friday into Saturday.  Could see another rain event or two during the 6th-9th time frame.  Near to below average temperatures are forecast through this period.

*7-day precipitation forecast valid thru Sunday, October 6, 2013.  A significant amount of precipitation is possible over portions of Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Upper Midwest later this week with perhaps 1-2″+ on the way.  (Source, Weather Prediction Center)













5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR

.Tonight…  Mostly clear.  Low 50 to 55.  Wind south to southwest at 10 to 20 mph.

.Monday…  Mostly sunny.  High 70 to 75.  Wind south to southwest at 10 to 20 mph.

.Monday Night…  Partly cloudy.  Low 50 to 55.  Wind southwest at 10 to 15 mph.

.Tuesday…  Partly cloudy.  High 68 to 73.

.Tuesday Night…  Partly cloudy.  Low 42 to 47.

.Wednesday…  Partly to mostly cloudy.  High 60 to 65.

.Wednesday Night…  Mostly cloudy.  Showers possible.  Low 45 to 50.

.Thursday…  Mostly cloudy.  Showers possible.  High 53 to 58.

Normal temperatures for Today

High:  59
Low:  41

Sunrise Monday:  7:06 AM CDT
Sunset Monday:   6:50 PM CDT

Tim

September 28, 2013 Weather Report – Nice stretch of weather ahead; Storm threat Oct. 3-5 (Snow up north???)

/Issued 4:16 PM CDT, Saturday, September 28, 2013/

*12z European computer model brings down a rather chilly airmass for next weekend.  The image below is the 850mb temperature forecast for 7 AM Saturday, October 5, 2013.  Widespread 0 to -6C 850mb temperatures next Saturday across the Upper Midwest and Western Great Lakes, this could result in daytime highs struggling to get out of the 40s across the Northland 1 week from Today.













*12z European model does show a light dusting of snow late next week over extreme Northern Minnesota, probably during the Friday PM-early Saturday time frame (October 4-5)  Stay tuned!  (Source, EuroWX.com)













Today’s Weather Summary for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

An area of low pressure averaging 996mb was over Southern Ontario as of 3 PM with strong height falls of 120-150 meters covering the Upper Midwest as this fall storm continues to deepen.  The day started with partial sunshine for some along with mild southerly breezes.  Rain quickly moved into Western parts of the Northland by mid-Morning, and this rain area advanced steadily north/east during the Afternoon as a potent cold front combined with a 70-90 knot mid level jet and a 100+ knot upper level jet resulted in some decent lift/forcing.  A narrow band of low-topped convection associated with the cold front did sweep NE across Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin This Afternoon, this band of thunder-free rain showers did produce some strong wind gusts of 25-45 mph thanks in part to 40-60 knot winds up at 5,000 feet, some of that did mix down to the surface as that thin line of showers moved through.  High temperatures Today were in the 60s and 70s but did fall into the 50s behind the cold front and as the rain was moving through.  Winds Today shifted from the south to the west at 10 to 20 mph.  Note:  Rainfall totals Today were generally in the 0.20-0.50″ range per MesoWest data.

*Kind of a textbook storm on the satellite image This Afternoon.  Chilly/windy/rainy conditions in the deformation band (west-northwest of the surface low) which affected Eastern North Dakota and Northwest Minnesota Today, while milder temperatures and a band of rain were found south/east of the surface low Today.  (Source, unisys weather)














Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Short Term Forecast – Confidence:  High.

Tonight (September 28)

Low pressure will deepen to 988-992mb Tonight as it continues to lift NE thru Central/Northern Ontario.  A steadier rain affecting the Arrowhead of Minnesota and Northern Wisconsin late This Afternoon will end before 7 PM.  Spotty showers are possible This Evening behind this main band of rain with mainly dry weather during the Overnight hours.  Partly to mostly cloudy skies are forecast with lows in the 30s and 40s.  Winds will be out of the west at 10 to 20 mph with higher gusts.

Sunday and Sunday Night (September 29)

A nice way to end the weekend with high temperatures Tomorrow in the 60s and lower 70s with minimum temperatures Sunday Night in the 40s to around 50 degrees.  Southwest winds are expected at 10 to around 20 mph.

Extended Forecast – Confidence:  High.

Monday through Wednesday (September 30-October 2)

Looks mainly dry during this period with high temperatures in the 60s and 70s on Monday and Tuesday and in the 60s on Wednesday.  Lows Monday Night and Tuesday Night will be in the 40s and 50s.  A cold front will be moving through the Upper Midwest early next week, but no precipitation is expected to accompany this frontal boundary.

Long Range Forecast – Confidence:  Medium.

(October 3-8)

A storm system may affect the Northland late next week (3rd-5th)  The strength, timing, and track of this potential storm is still somewhat uncertain so stay tuned to later updates.  Per latest model guidance it looks like rain is a pretty good bet from Thursday into Friday, possibly lingering into Saturday depending on how quick/slow this storm moves through.  Can’t even rule out an isolated thunderstorm threat either on Thursday or Friday but alot of that hinges upon how far north a warm front gets.  Also, there is still potential albeit a slight one for the rain to mix with or change to snow Friday or early Saturday, mainly over the Arrowhead of Minnesota and along the Minnesota/Ontario border…This doesn’t look like a significant snow event at the moment, but things could change.  Near to below average temperatures are expected from the 3rd-6th with near normal temperatures on the 7th-8th.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR

.Tonight…  Breezy.  Spotty showers before 8 PM.  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 40 to 45.  Wind west to southwest at 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 25 mph.

.Sunday…  Partly cloudy.  High 66 to 71.  Wind southwest at 10 to 20 mph.

.Sunday Night…  Partly cloudy.  Low 45 to 50.  Wind south at 5 to 15 mph.

.Monday…  Partly cloudy.  High 70 to 75.

.Monday Night…  Partly cloudy.  Low 50 to 55.

.Tuesday…  Partly cloudy.  High 68 to 73.

.Tuesday Night…  Partly cloudy.  Low 42 to 47.

.Wednesday…  Partly cloudy.  High 60 to 65.

Normal temperatures for Today

High:  60
Low:  41

Sunrise Sunday:  7:05 AM CDT
Sunset Sunday:   6:52 PM CDT

Tim

September 27, 2013 – Weather Report. Future radar included in this post. Unseasonably mild Tonight; Rainy Saturday; Very nice Sunday-Monday.

/Issued 3:31 PM CDT, Friday, September 27, 2013/

-Future radar per 18z NAM-HIRES computer model.

10 AM Saturday – should be raining by mid-late Morning from International Falls to Brainerd and Aitkin, east to Pine City and Hinckley.  Rain should be nearing the Twin Ports after 10 AM.  Looks dry before Noon in Northwest Wisconsin.

















1 PM Saturday – Rain should be affecting the entire Northland with a dry slot edging ENE out of Western Minnesota.  The yellow colors represent where heavier downpours capable of producing gusty winds will be located.

















7 PM Saturday:  Rain should be done by early Tomorrow Evening, although it should be noted that a few of the computer models are a little slower than this particular one.  Should the slower solutions verify, then rain could linger til around 7-8 PM Tomorrow in Northwest Wisconsin and the Arrowhead of Minnesota.

















Fall Foliage report #2
Source:  MNDNR and travelwisconsin.com

Note:  Data as of September 27, 2013

Northeast Minnesota:

-Portions of the North Shore of Lake Superior and Arrowhead of Minnesota have 25-75% color change.

-Duluth, Two Harbors, and Cloquet have 10-25% color change.

-Parts of Northern Minnesota, including Bigfork, International Falls, Grand Rapids, Deer River, Floodwood, Hibbing, and Moose Lake have anywhere from 25-75% color change.






















Northwest Wisconsin:

-Douglas and Bayfield County:  15-35% color change.

-The rest of NW Wisconsin including the Counties of Ashland, Iron, Burnett, Washburn, Sawyer, and Price have 25-55% color change.

Today’s Weather Summary for NE Minnesota and NW Wisconsin

A cold front extended from Northwest Minnesota to Southwest Nebraska late This Afternoon with low pressure of 996-1000mb over Southern/Eastern Colorado.  A strong low level jet with warm/moist advection occurring ahead of this system led to scattered showers in Northern/Eastern Minnesota and far Northwest Wisconsin Today with even a few isolated thunderstorms across Northern Minnesota.  Partly sunny to mostly cloudy skies were common Today with mild high temperatures in the 60s and 70s.  Winds were from the south or east at 5 to 15 mph with a few higher gusts.

Forecast Discussion for NE Minnesota and NW Wisconsin

Short Term Forecast – Confidence:  High.

Tonight (September 27)

A mild night ahead as southerly winds continue along with partly to mostly cloudy skies.  Lows will be in the 50s and 60s which is 10-20 degrees warmer than average.  Scattered showers could develop at times mainly in the Western/Northern part of the area.  Isolated thunderstorms are also possible.

Saturday and Saturday Night (September 28)

An area of low pressure will deepen from 1000mb to around 991mb as it moves out of Western Minnesota and into Central Ontario during this period.  A strong cold front attached to this low will push NE through the Northland on Saturday.

A robust low level jet of 40-50+ knots is forecast to develop along and ahead of the cold front on Saturday with good lift taking place out ahead of the deepening surface/upper level system.  Rain and showers will affect the entire Northland with precipitation moving from SW-NE.  Rain should come to an end from west-east by late Saturday Afternoon or Evening.  Could see some strong wind gusts in the main band of rain which accompanies the cold front on Saturday, winds at around 5,000 feet will be blowing upwards of 50 knots on Saturday and some of that could mix down to the surface in the heavier rain cores.

High temperatures on Saturday will range from the 60s and 70s in Northwest Wisconsin to the 50s and 60s in Northern Minnesota.  Lows Tomorrow Night will be in the 30s and 40s.  South or east winds will switch to the west at 10 to 20 mph with higher gusts.

Total rainfall amounts of 0.10-0.50″ are still expected on Saturday in all of Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin.  (Source, 18z 4km High-Res NAM)


















Extended Forecast – Confidence:  High.

Sunday through Tuesday (September 29-October 1)

A very pleasant stretch of weather lies ahead during this period with dry conditions and mild temperatures.  High temperatures will be in the 60s and 70s from Sunday through Tuesday with lows Sunday Night and Monday Night in the 40s and 50s.

Long Range Forecast – Confidence:  Medium.

(October 2-7)

Next Thursday-Saturday (3-5) will be a time frame to keep an eye on as the long range computer models have been showing a fairly strong storm system affecting the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes.  The timing, track, and intensity of this possible storm is far from certain since it’s about a week away so stay tuned to later updates.  Gusty winds and rain will  be possible in the Northland sometime between next Thursday-Saturday based on the latest model guidance.  And just for fun the 12z GFS model from Today switches the rain to snow in most of the Northland next Friday, but at the moment this solution appears to be the outliar.  Near to above average temperatures are expected on October 2nd with near to below average temperatures from the 3rd-7th.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR

.Tonight…  Mild.  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Isolated showers possible This Evening.  Low 57 to 62.  Wind south to southeast at 10 to 20 mph.

.Saturday…  Partial sunshine possible early.  Rain developing after 10 AM and ending around 4 PM.  High 62 to 67.  Wind south to southeast at 10 to 20 mph becoming southwest during the Afternoon.  Higher wind gusts are possible.

.Saturday Night…  Breezy.  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 40 to 45.  Wind west to southwest at 15 to 25 mph.

.Sunday…  Partly cloudy.  High 65 to 70.

.Sunday Night…  Mostly clear.  Low 45 to 50.

.Monday…  Partly cloudy.  High 68 to 73.

.Monday Night…  Partly cloudy.  Low 50 to 55.

.Tuesday…  Partly cloudy.  High 68 to 73.

Normal temperatures for Today

High:  60
Low:   42

Sunrise Saturday:  7:04 AM CDT
Sunset Saturday:   6:54 PM CDT

Tim






September 26, 2013 – Weather Report. Drought update; Latest on the rain chances; And next weekend (Oct. 5-6) could be a cold one!

/Issued 4:02 PM CDT, Thursday, September 26, 2013/

*Still looking at a widespread quarter to half inch of rain in the Northland by Saturday Evening with heavier totals possible toward the Ontario border per 12z ECMWF.  (Source, EuroWX.com)










*Rainfall forecast valid thru 7 PM Friday.  (Source, Weather Prediction Center)
















*Rainfall forecast valid 7 PM Friday thru 7 PM Saturday.  (Source, Weather Prediction Center)

















Weather Tidbits:

*So far this year, New Mexico is the winner for having the most extreme weather in the U.S.  (Source, The Weather Channel)

*The last time the Twin Cities had a frost in September was back in 2000 on the 24th (13 years ago)  Doesn’t look like there’ll get any frost before the end of September this year.  (Source, MPR Updraft blog)

*The hailstorms that hit Minnesota back in August is the latest billion dollar weather disaster to hit the U.S.  The total for 2013 is now up to 6 in the U.S. with 25 worldwide.  (Source, MPR Updraft blog)

*Preliminary numbers:  79 flood deaths and 22 lightning deaths in the U.S. so far this year.  15 tornadoes in Wisconsin and 13 tornadoes in Minnesota in 2013.  (Source, Twitter; @tshea_wcm)

*45.5% of the U.S. is in Moderate to Exceptional drought this week per latest drought monitor.  (Source, Twitter; @NOAANCDC)

Drought Monitor update as of September 24, 2013
Source:  Climate Prediction Center

Minnesota:

*71% of the state is Abnormally Dry – same as last week.
*53% of the state is in Moderate Drought – Up from 51% last week.
*8% of the state is in Severe Drought – Up from 7% last week.

Note:  28% of Minnesota is drought free – same as last week.














Wisconsin:

*59% of the state is Abnormally Dry – same as last week.
*31% of the state is in Moderate Drought – Down from 41% last week.
*16% of the state is in Severe Drought – Down from 18% last week.

Note:  40% of Wisconsin is drought free – same as last week.















Today’s Weather Summary for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Away from Lake Superior it was another unseasonably mild late September day with high temperatures in the 70s under partly cloudy to sunny skies.  Near Lake Superior, a gusty east wind continued with highs in the 50s and 60s along with periods of low clouds, fog, and some drizzle.  The surface map late This Afternoon featured an area of low pressure averaging 996mb over far Southeast Saskatchewan with a few other lows averaging 996-1002mb over the Rockies and Western High Plains.  A cold front was over the Eastern Dakotas.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Short Term Forecast – Confidence:  High.

Tonight (September 26)

Partly to mostly cloudy skies will be found in our area Tonight with low clouds, fog, and drizzle near Lake Superior.  A few showers or thunderstorms may develop after Midnight in Western/Northwest portions of the Northland.  Lows will be in the 50s and 60s with south or east winds at 10 to 20 mph.

Friday and Friday Night (September 27)

Low pressure will be moving into the Northern Plains with a cold front heading toward Western Minnesota.  A warm and fairly moist southerly flow of air will be found across the Upper Midwest out ahead of this system on Friday.  High temperatures will be in the 70s with a few 80s possible as well.  It will be cooler though along the North Shore of Lake Superior where some fog and low clouds may linger at times.  Lows Tomorrow Night will be in the 50s and 60s.  Winds will be out of the south or east at 10 to 20 mph.

Scattered showers or thunderstorms are possible this period, generally in North Central Minnesota down toward the Aitkin and Brainerd Lakes vicinity.  Northwest Wisconsin should remain dry this period.  The chance for severe thunderstorms continues to be on the low side due to a limited amount of instability with CAPE generally less than 500 j/kg with Lifted Indices around 0 to -2C.  The shear along with the low level jet, mid/upper level winds do look strong though and would be favorable for severe thunderstorm development, but the lack of instability should keep things from getting too extreme.

*15z SREF calibrated severe thunderstorm probability forecast for Friday Afternoon/Evening.  Still seeing some decent numbers for severe t-storms from West Central  into Northern Minnesota.  Gotta watch it, but again I don’t think the chance for severe weather is that good for Tomorrow.














Extended Forecast – Confidence:  High.

Saturday through Monday (September 28-30)

Rain will occur over the entire Northland on Saturday.  The rain will likely spread east/northeast during the day, so Eastern/Northeast Minnesota as well as Northwest Wisconsin may stay dry during the Morning hours before the rain pushes in Saturday Afternoon.  The system responsible in bringing this rain to the Northland will deepen as it pulls out of the Upper Midwest and into Ontario by Saturday Night.  Rain will end in our area from SW-NE by Saturday Evening.  Dry weather returns for Sunday and Monday.

Highs on Saturday will range from the 50s in Northern Minnesota to the 60s and a few 70s in Eastern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin.  Highs Sunday and Monday won’t cool down at all with readings in the 60s and 70s.  Lows Saturday Night will be in the 30s and 40s.  Lows Sunday Night will be in the 40s and 50s.

Note:  Looks pretty windy Saturday into early Sunday as the area of low pressure intensifies.  Winds will turn into the west and could gust to 25-35 mph Saturday Afternoon/Night.

Long Range Forecast – Confidence:  High.

(October 1-6)

Near to above average temperatures are forecast from the 1st-3rd.  A storm system may impact the area sometime between the 4th-6th with possible rain along with near to below average temperatures.

*850mb temperatures for valid for next Saturday, October 5, 2013 per 12z ECMWF.  The area in white=0C 850mb temperatures.  If this verifies, then next weekend would be a chilly one over a large chunk of the Rockies, Northern/Central Plains and Upper Midwest.  Stay tuned!  (Source, EuroWX.com)











5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR

.Tonight…  Breezy.  Areas of fog and drizzle.  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 51 to 56.  Wind east to southeast at 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 25 mph possible near Lake Superior.

.Friday…  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Isolated showers or thunderstorms possible.  High 72 to 77 but cooler near Lake Superior.  Wind southeast at 10 to 20 mph.

.Friday Night…  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Isolated showers or thunderstorms possible.  Low 57 to 62.  Wind southeast at 10 to 15 mph.

.Saturday…  Rain developing, especially after 10 AM.  Mostly cloudy.  High 62 to 67.

.Saturday Night…  Breezy.  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 40 to 45.  West winds could occasionally gust to 30 mph.

.Sunday…  Partly cloudy.  High 65 to 70.

.Sunday Night…  Partly cloudy.  Low 45 to 50.

.Monday…  Partly cloudy.  High 68 to 73.

Normal temperatures for Today

High:  61
Low:  42

Sunrise Friday:  7:02 AM CDT
Sunset Friday:   6:56 PM CDT

Tim