/Issued 3:56 PM CDT, Monday, September 30, 2013/
**Lots of chatter lately on a possible storm for later this week. The storm is still showing up in the computer models Today, but the strength, track, and timing continues to be uncertain.
-Here’s the surface map forecast for Friday, October 4, 2013 per Weather Prediction Center. A deepening area of low pressure along the Nebraska/Iowa state line and a warm front running NE into Southern Minnesota and North Central Wisconsin. Gusty winds and rainy north/west of that warm front on Friday.
-Surface map forecast for Saturday, October 5, 2013 per Weather Prediction Center. A deep area of low pressure between Ironwood and Marquette, Michigan with gusty winds and chilly rain (possibly some snow) northwest/west of the surface low in Northern Minnesota. As I stated above, and again down below in this post the storm track differs between the computer models. The WPC is actually quicker and on a more south/east track Today.
-This certainly caught my attention. This image is from Today’s 12z European model and is valid for Saturday, October 5, 2013. 850mb wind forecast, note the yellow and red colors…40-50+ knot winds at around 5,000 feet. Some of that will likely mix down to the surface, even more alarming is the fact that the EURO shows cold air causing the rain to change to snow Friday/Saturday over the Northern Plains into Western/Northwest Minnesota. Blizzard? Will just have to wait and see…
Climate normals for October at Duluth, Minnesota (Airport location)
Normal precipitation: 2.85″
Normal snowfall: 2.3″
Sunrise on the 1st: 7:08 AM CDT
Sunrise on the 31st: 7:50 AM CDT
Sunset on the 1st: 6:48 PM CDT
Sunset on the 31st: 5:54 PM CDT
Today’s Weather Summary for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin
A strong area of low pressure averaging 984mb was sitting along the Alberta/Saskatchewan Province border late This Afternoon with a 998mb low over Central South Dakota. A cold front was over Northwestern Minnesota. Another nice early fall day as we wrap up the month of September. Skies ranged from mostly sunny to partly cloudy with high temperatures mainly in the 70s along with southwest winds at 10 to 20 mph.
Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin
Short Term Forecast – Confidence: High.
Tonight (September 30)
Partly to mostly cloudy skies will be found in the Northland. A cold front will move east and is forecast to reach Northwest Wisconsin by dawn. A few rain showers might develop Tonight in Northern Minnesota with dry weather elsewhere. Lows will mainly be in the 50s with winds out of the south or west at 10 to 20 mph.
*19z (2pm) HRRR model run cranks out generally less than 0.10″ of rain later Tonight across Northern Minnesota. International Falls, Northome, Ely, Crane Lake, Grand Rapids, Bigfork, Cass Lake, and Walker are just a few cities that may see a shower or two later Tonight.
Tuesday and Tuesday Night (October 1)
Looks dry during this period with strong low pressure centered to our north and a cold front to our south/east. Highs will be in the 60s and 70s with lows in the 30s and 40s. Winds will be out of the west at 10 to 20 mph with higher gusts possible during the day.
Extended Forecast – Confidence: Medium.
Wednesday through Friday (October 2-4)
Could be an active mid-late week period. An upper level trough is expected to move into the Rockies and Plains with a surface low developing across the Western/Central Plains later this week. The cold front that’ll pass through the Northland Tonight is forecast to stall out well to our south during the Wednesday-Friday period. Moisture flowing up and over that boundary should result in periods of rain over the Upper Midwest beginning sometime on Wednesday and lasting through Friday. A few thunderstorms are possible as well, but that threat looks greatest south of the Northland based on current model data.
High temperatures will be in the 50s and 60s on Wednesday and in the 40s and 50s Thursday and Friday. Lows will be in the 40s and 50s Wednesday Night and Thursday Night.
Long Range Forecast – Confidence: Medium.
The potential is still there for a pretty strong storm to affect the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes later this week. Computer models still differ a bit as to the exact track, strength, and timing of this potential storm so stay tuned to later updates.
It’s possible this system will affect us in 2 waves. The 1st round of rain could hit us late Wednesday into a part of Thursday before a brief break, and then the next round of precipitation associated with the main storm affects us sometime Friday into Saturday.
How strong the winds will be is yet to be determined as that will depend on the track of the low and how deep of a system it will be.
As for snow…There is still a chance that far Northern Minnesota and possibly the Arrowhead will see the rain mix with or turn to snow sometime on Saturday, but right now this doesn’t look like a huge snow event anywhere in the Northland. Again, things could change so stay tuned.
Another system may affect the area sometime between the 6th-8th with possible rain. Near to below average temperatures are forecast through this period.
*Based on current model projections much of Minnesota and Wisconsin and neighboring states could pick up 1-3″ of precipitation later this week. (Source, Weather Prediction Center)
5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR
.Tonight… Partly cloudy. Low 53 to 58. Wind south to southwest at 10 to 20 mph.
.Tuesday… Breezy. Partly cloudy. High 68 to 73. Wind west at 15 to 25 mph.
.Tuesday Night… Partly cloudy. Low 42 to 47. Wind west at 10 to 15 mph.
.Wednesday… Partly to mostly cloudy. High 63 to 68.
.Wednesday Night… Showers possible. Mostly cloudy. Low 45 to 50.
.Thursday… Showers possible. Mostly cloudy. High 53 to 58.
.Thursday Night… Showers possible. Mostly cloudy. Low 45 to 50.
.Friday… Showers possible. Mostly cloudy. High 50 to 55.
Normal temperatures for Today
Sunrise Tuesday: 7:08 AM CDT
Sunset Tuesday: 6:48 PM CDT