/Issued 2:29 PM CDT, Friday, September 6, 2013/
Drought update as of September 3, 2013
Source: Climate Prediction Center
*75% of the state is abnormally dry which is down from 85% one week ago.
*53% of the state is in moderate drought which is down from 54% last week.
*4% of the state is now in severe drought which is up from 0% last week.
*59% of the state is abnormally dry which is down from 61% last week.
*34% of the state is in moderate drought which is up from 20% last week.
*6% of the state is in severe drought which is up from 0% last week.
Today’s Weather Summary for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin
A late season surge of warm/humid air moved into the Northland Today with high temperatures mainly in the 80s with cooler 70s confined to the North Shore of Lake Superior. Note: A few locations especially in Western/Southern areas even hit 90 degrees This Afternoon. Dew points have increased dramatically with 60s covering most of the area Today. Southerly or southwesterly winds ranged from 5 to around 20 mph. Sky conditions varied from mostly sunny to partly sunny and there’s been a few showers at times mainly affecting extreme Northeast Minnesota and far Northern Wisconsin.
Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin
Short Term Forecast – Confidence: High (9/10)
Tonight (September 6)
A cold front sagging south out of Ontario This Afternoon will pass through Northern Minnesota and Northern Wisconsin Tonight. A moist and slightly unstable airmass will be found along and ahead of this front with CAPE generally around 1000 j/kg or less and Lifted Indices of 0 to -3C. Convergence near this front might be enough to trigger a few showers and thunderstorms Tonight with the greater chances expected to be in Northern Wisconsin and far Northeast Minnesota. I don’t think any of the storms that develop will be severe due to a lack of more significant instability. Wind shear and the mid/upper level winds are also on the low side Today which should prevent any storm from becoming too strong. With that said, there could still be some brief downpours, gusty winds and small hail along with lightning so keep an eye to the sky and seek shelter if a thunderstorm approaches your area.
Partly to mostly cloudy skies are forecast Tonight with lows in the 50s and 60s. South, southwest or north winds are expected at 5 to 15 mph.
Saturday and Saturday Night (September 7)
Cold front stalls out well to our west/south while high pressure builds into the Northland during this period. Clear to partly cloudy skies are expected with highs Tomorrow in the 70s and 80s. Lows Tomorrow Night will be in the 40s and 50s. Note: Expect falling temperatures near Lake Superior Saturday Afternoon as ENE winds increase, so although it may start out pretty mild (70s, maybe even 80s) By late Afternoon/Evening temperatures may fall back to around 60 degrees or so. Winds during this period will be out of the north or east at 5 to 15 mph with higher gusts possible near Lake Superior.
Extended Forecast – Confidence: High. (9/10)
Sunday through Tuesday (September 8-10)
An area of high pressure will pass north/east of the area on Sunday with low pressure moving into the Western High Plains/Northern Plains region. This low will track E/NE into the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes from Monday into early Tuesday. A warm front and cold front connected to this low will be affecting the Northland’s weather early next week.
Warm and moist advection pattern ahead of this system could lead to some rain showers and a few thunderstorms in parts of the Northland by Sunday Evening-Overnight. Chances for showers or thunderstorms will continue Monday into Monday Night with dry weather expected to return on Tuesday. Note: A few of the thunderstorms on Monday could become severe, and heavy rain will also be possible. It’s still a little early to say what parts of the Northland will be impacted the most, and the track of this system could change a bit in coming days so stay tuned to later updates/forecasts.
High temperatures on Sunday will be in the 60s and 70s with lows mainly in the 50s. Highs on Monday will range from the 60s near Lake Superior and in far Northern Minnesota with 70s and 80s elsewhere. Lows Monday Night will be in the 50s and 60s. Highs on Tuesday will mainly be in the 70s.
Long Range Forecast – Confidence: High (9/10)
Near to below average temperatures are forecast from the 11th-13th, much of the Northland is also at risk for patchy frost next Wednesday Night/Thursday Night based on latest model data. Near to above average temperatures return from the 14th-16th, and there’s also a chance for some showers at times during that aforementioned time period.
5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR
.Tonight… Partly cloudy. Isolated showers are possible This Evening. Low 60 to 65. Wind southwest at 10 to 20 mph, becoming north to northeast.
.Saturday… Partly cloudy. Turning cooler, especially later in the day. High 80 to 85 but falling into the 60s near Lake Superior during the Afternoon. Wind north to northeast at 10 to 20 mph.
.Saturday Night… Partly cloudy. Low 50 to 55. Wind east to northeast at 10 to 20 mph.
.Sunday… Partly to mostly cloudy. High 65 to 70.
.Sunday Night… Mostly cloudy. Occasional showers possible. Low 50 to 55.
.Monday… Mostly cloudy. Showers or thunderstorms possible. High 70 to 75 but cooler near Lake Superior.
.Monday Night… Showers or thunderstorms possible. Low 55 to 60.
.Tuesday… Partly cloudy. High 70 to 75.
Normal temperatures for Today
Sunrise Saturday: 6:36 AM CDT
Sunset Saturday: 7:36 PM CDT