/Issued 7:22 PM CDT, Sunday, September 8, 2013/
High temperature forecast valid for Monday, September 9, 2013 per 18z 4km NAM. Huge temperature gradient is expected on Monday with 90s and possibly even a few 100 degree high temperatures along and south of a St Cloud – Cambridge, Minnesota line while temperatures hold in the 60s farther north!
That type of thermal contrast could lead to quite a bit of rain on Monday from Northern Minnesota to Upper Michigan. 1-3″+ rainfall amounts are possible on Monday north of the warm front which looks like it’ll setup from Central Minnesota to North Central Wisconsin. (Source, 18z 4km NAM rainfall forecast) Note, the legend is on the top of this map.
Temperature and precipitation report for Duluth, Minnesota (Airport location)
September 1-7, 2013
9/1: 73F/2 degrees above normal
9/2: 67F/3 degrees below normal
9/3: 79F/9 degrees above normal
9/5: 74F/5 degrees above normal
9/6: 88F/19 degrees above normal
9/7: 84F/15 degrees above normal
9/1: 56F/4 degrees above normal
9/2: 48F/3 degrees below normal
9/3: 46F/5 degrees below normal
9/4: 52F/1 degrees above normal
9/5: 45F/5 degrees below normal
9/6: 60F/10 degrees above normal
9/7: 59F/9 degrees above normal
Total precipitation: Trace
Temperature departure for last week. (Source, Midwest Regional Climate Center)
Precipitation departure for last week. (Source, Midwest Regional Climate Center)
Weather Tidbits for Duluth, Minnesota (Airport location)
*42 days so far this year with a high temperature of at least 80 degrees. Note: 2012 had 48 days at or above 80F.
*In 2012 the last date with a high temperature at or above 70F was on October 3. The last date at or above 80F occurred on September 11.
Today’s Weather Summary for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin
A cool, but more typical early September day in the Northland with plenty of clouds and a cool breeze out of the east at 5 to 15 mph with higher gusts near Lake Superior. High temperatures were in the middle 60s to lower 70s. An area of rain affected the Southern part of the area Today with 0.67″ of rain at Brainerd Today. Other more scattered rain showers have been passing thru the rest of the area Today.
Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin
Short Term Forecast – Confidence: High
Tonight (September 8)
An area of low pressure over Western Nebraska early This Evening is forecast to lift ENE into Southern South Dakota during the night. A warm front is expected to push NNE out of Nebraska and Iowa Tonight, this boundary should extend from West Central into South Central Minnesota by dawn. A warm advection pattern will continue ahead of this storm system Tonight resulting in scattered showers and mostly cloudy skies in NE Minnesota and NW Wisconsin. Patchy drizzle/fog is also possible, especially near Lake Superior. Lows will be in the 50s and 60s with east winds at 5 to 15 mph.
Monday and Monday Night (September 9)
Low pressure will move from Southern/Eastern South Dakota to East Central Minnesota by early Monday Evening and then into Upper Michigan Monday Night. A big temperature gradient will be found over Minnesota on Monday with highs ranging from the 90s to around 100 degrees in the Southern half of Minnesota to the 60s in Northern Minnesota – or to the north of the surface low and warm front.
Occasional rain and thunderstorms should occur Tomorrow and Tomorrow Evening as warm air rides up and over the surface warm front which should setup from Central Minnesota to North Central Wisconsin on Monday before it pushes more to the SE Monday Night.
The potential is there for heavy rain during this period mainly over the Iron Range, Arrowhead, and Borderland regions. PWATS will be extremely high for the time of year ranging from 1.50-2.10″ with 60+ degree dew points pushing north as well. Low level jet of 30-45 knots will also develop over the Northland on Monday…This should result in a decent potential for heavy rain, especially over Northern Minnesota.
East Central Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin looks like it’ll come under the influence of a strengthening cap (warm air aloft) Monday PM which should result in a much lesser chance for widespread rains for those areas…However, should this cap weaken, then there will be a threat for strong – severe thunderstorms Monday and Monday Evening as wind shear will be decent and the winds aloft also quite strong. This threat is conditional though, and will depend on whether the cap can break or not.
High temperatures in our area will range from the 60s in Northern Minnesota and near Lake Superior with 70s and 80s in East Central Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin. Winds will be out of the south, east, or west at 5 to 15 mph.
As I mentioned above the severe weather parameters look decent on Monday especially over Central and Eastern Minnesota into Northern Wisconsin, but the strength of the cap looks like it may squash any chance for severe thunderstorm development. The map below is the calibrated 24 hour severe t-storm probability forecast valid for Monday. (Source, 15z SREF model)
Extended Forecast – Confidence: High.
Tuesday through Thursday (September 10-12)
Spotty showers are possible on Tuesday and Wednesday with mainly dry weather on Thursday. Highs are forecast to be in the 60s and 70s with a few 80s possible in Southern areas on Tuesday and Wednesday. Lows Tuesday Night will be in the 50s to lower 60s. Wednesday Night’s low temperatures will be in the 40s and 50s. Highs on Thursday will be in the 60s.
Long Range Forecast – Confidence: High.
Still looking at a potential for some frost over much of the Northland – away from Lake Superior late this week, most likely Thursday Night/Friday AM (13th) Rain showers are possible at times this upcoming weekend (14th-15th) Near to below average temperatures are forecast through this period.
5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR
.Tonight… Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers possible along with some drizzle. Patchy fog? Low 55 to 60. Wind east at 10 to 20 mph.
.Monday… Mostly cloudy. Occasional showers or thunderstorms. Some drizzle and fog. High 65 to 70. Wind east at 10 to 20 mph.
.Monday Night… Mostly cloudy. Patchy fog and drizzle. Scattered showers or thunderstorms possible during the Evening. Low 55 to 60. Wind east at 5 to 15 mph, becoming west late.
.Tuesday… Partly to mostly cloudy. High 71 to 76.
.Tuesday Night… Partly cloudy. Low 50 to 55.
.Wednesday… Partly sunny. High 70 to 75.
.Wednesday Night… Partly cloudy. Low 45 to 50.
.Thursday… Partly sunny. High 60 to 65.
Normal temperatures for Tomorrow
Sunrise Monday: 6:39 AM CDT
Sunset Monday: 7:32 PM CDT