/Issued 3:47 PM CDT, Monday, September 9, 2013/
*More 90 degree days this year in the Twin Cities compared to Atlanta, Georgia. So far in 2013 Minneapolis has had 19 days at or above 90F vs. 17 days at or above 90F in Atlanta, Georgia. (Source, Paul Douglas; St. Cloud Times)
*For only the 4th time since 1883 the summer of 2013 (June-August) failed to produce any 100 degree days in Alabama. The other years where no 100’s were recorded include; 1965, 1994, and 2001. (Source, Twitter @spann)
*Des Moines, Iowa hit 100 degrees Today for only the 2nd time in history during the month of September. Today’s (9/9/13) 100 degree high temperature is also the latest on record. (Source, The Weather Channel)
Rainfall report for September 8-9, 2013 (ending around 6-7 AM Today)
Source: National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota
Brainerd, MN: 1.36″
7 NW of Brainerd, MN: 0.89″
Bruno, MN: 0.26″
3 NE of Nisswa, MN: 1.38″
Cass Lake, MN: 0.44″
Floodwood, MN: 0.11″
Park Falls, WI: 0.11″
Webster, WI: 0.15″
Today’s Weather Summary for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin
Low pressure of 1003mb was centered in Southeastern North Dakota as of 3 PM with a warm front stretching from Central Minnesota to Central Wisconsin. A well organized rain/thunderstorm complex affected much of the area This Morning into the early Afternoon hours. Heavy downpours and lightning were the main hazards out of this MCS, but a few of the storms were on the strong side especially around the Brainerd Lakes area early This Morning. The rest of the day was generally dry except in the Arrowhead and Iron Range where additional showers and thunderstorms have been percolating This Afternoon. High temperatures were in the 60s and 70s with south or east winds at 5 to 15 mph.
Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin
Short Term Forecast – Confidence: High.
Tonight (September 9)
Low pressure will move from Western Minnesota to Northern Wisconsin thru Midnight while a warm front sags slowly S/SE out of Central Minnesota/Central Wisconsin. A conditional risk for scattered strong to severe thunderstorms continues This Evening from East Central Minnesota into Northern Wisconsin.
CAPE of 1000-2000 j/kg will be in place with Lifted Indices of -2 to -6C. Around 30-40 knots of 0-6 KM Bulk Shear and Effective Bulk Shear and 20-35 knots of 1km shear will be found near the warm front and surface low This Evening and helicity values of 150 m2/s2 to 250 m2/s2. The saving grace are the very toasty temperatures in the mid/upper levels of the atmosphere (CAP) 700mb temps late This Afternoon are around +12C and not much change is expected thru the Evening. That’s a very strong cap and may keep thunderstorms from developing, however, if storms can blow up, then all modes of severe weather will be a possibility including large hail, damaging winds, and isolated tornadoes…Again the area at risk runs from East Central Minnesota to Northern Wisconsin…Or from around Mille Lacs Lake, Hinckley and Pine City, east to Siren, Shell Lake and Hayward. North of this line, the potential does exist for occasional showers or thunderstorms, but storms shouldn’t be severe since the airmass is more stable from the Twin Ports and North Shore to the Iron Range and Arrowhead.
Partly to mostly cloudy skies are expected Tonight with areas of fog and drizzle, especially near Lake Superior. Lows will be in the 50s and 60s with winds from the south, east, or north at 5 to 15 mph.
Tuesday and Tuesday Night (September 10)
Low pressure and cold front exit to our south/east, but will be replaced by a secondary cold front which is forecast to drop SE toward Northern Minnesota. Residual moisture and weak instability over our area could lead to an Afternoon/Evening spotty shower/thunderstorm otherwise expect partly to mostly cloudy skies during this period. Highs Tomorrow will be in the 60s and 70s with a few 80s possible in Southern areas. Lows Tomorrow Night will mainly be in the 50s. Winds will be out of the west, south or east at 5 to 15 mph.
Extended Forecast – Confidence: High.
Wednesday through Friday (September 11-13)
Isolated showers are possible in Northeast Minnesota on Wednesday, otherwise the mid to late week period looks pretty tranquil weather-wise. The warmest day looks like it’ll be on Wednesday with highs in the 70s to lower 80s. Highs Thursday and Friday will be in the 50s and 60s. Lows Wednesday Night will be in the 40s and 50s. Lows Thursday Night in the 30s and 40s. Note: Still looks like there will be a frost threat Thursday Night/Friday AM for much of the Northland – away from Lake Superior.
Long Range Forecast – Confidence: Medium
Some uncertainty showing up in the long range computer models (must be getting closer to winter or something) Do we see an upper trough/upper low dig into the Great Lakes resulting in a cool NNW flow or will a trough head into the Western U.S. which results in a milder SW flow across the Upper Midwest? Stay tuned! Could be some rain this weekend (14-15) in NE Minnesota and NW Wisconsin, after that it’s a crap shoot trying to determine when or where some rain could fall.
5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR
.Tonight… Fog and drizzle. Fog could be dense at times. Scattered showers or thunderstorms may redevelop This Evening. Low 55 to 60. Wind east at 10 to 20 mph becoming west toward dawn.
.Tuesday… Milder. Partly to mostly cloudy. Isolated late day showers or thunderstorms possible. High 71 to 76. Wind west at 5 to 15 mph.
.Tuesday Night… Isolated showers or thunderstorms possible early. Partly cloudy. Low 50 to 55. Wind variable around 10 mph.
.Wednesday… Partly sunny. High 73 to 78.
.Wednesday Night… Partly cloudy. Low 45 to 50.
.Thursday… Partly sunny. High 60 to 65.
.Thursday Night… Partly cloudy. Low 37 to 42. Patchy frost possible away from Lake Superior.
.Friday… Partly cloudy. High 60 to 65.
Normal temperatures for Today
Sunrise Tuesday: 6:40 AM CDT
Sunset Tuesday: 7:30 PM CDT
/Issued 3:47 PM CDT, Monday, September 9, 2013/