/Issued 4:21 PM CDT, Tuesday, September 10, 2013/
-The area highlighted on the map saw a 1-2 drought monitor class change in August 2013. (Source, MPR; Updraft blog)
…Short term drought conditions continue to worsen in much of Minnesota…
Source: Updraft blog – MPR; NWS Chanhassen, Minnesota
According to the National Drought Mitigation Center, Minnesota has had the fastest growing drought in the U.S. in August followed by Iowa, and then Louisiana.
August 6, 2013: 1.71% of MN was in moderate drought.
August 27, 2013: 54.9% of MN was in moderate drought.
Per Minnesota Agricultural Statistics Service; Subsoil moisture in 61% of Minnesota’s landscape is short to very short. 69% of recent reports indicate short or very short Topsoil moisture. Stream flow is low in roughly 1/3 of Minnesota’s watersheds this includes the St. Louis River at Scanlon, MN where the stage late This Afternoon was just 2.65 feet which is 29% of normal (mean)
-Total precipitation from June 26, 2013 – September 10, 2013: Extreme Northern Minnesota into the Arrowhead has seen the most precipitation, anywhere from 8-12″ since June 26. The Twin Ports around 6″. Much of Central/Southern Minnesota have only received 2-4″ of rain since late June. (Source, MNDNR)
-Total precipitation departure from normal June 26, 2013 – September 10, 2013. (Source, MNDNR) Much of East Central and Southern Minnesota are running 4-9″ below average since June 26.
-August 2013 was another odd month when it comes to the weather. This is the U.S. mean temperature map for August 2013 with blue colors indicating below average temperatures which were most dominant in the Eastern U.S., while warmer than average temperatures indicated by the red colors covered much of the Northwest/Northern U.S. Note: Minnesota was warmer than Alabama, Georgia, and parts of the Southwest U.S.
Precipitation report for Duluth, Minnesota (Airport location)
Since January 1, 2013: 21.91″
Since June 1, 2013: 8.20″
Since September 1, 2013: 0.32″
Note: Basically the dry weather pattern that we had during most of the summer has carried over into the early part of Meteorological fall. Does the drought continue, do we get into a wetter pattern? Weather has a tendency to balance out, so it wouldn’t surprise me one bit if we get into a much stormier weather pattern – just can’t say for sure when that will be though. So for now it’s all about the drought.
Rainfall report for September 10, 2013
Source: National Weather Service Duluth, MN
Duluth, MN: 0.32″
International Falls, MN: 0.68″
Brainerd, MN: 0.75″
Grand Marais, MN: 0.69″
Hibbing, MN: 0.43″
Hayward, WI: 0.15″
7 NW of Brainerd, MN: 0.89″
12 N of Isle, MN: 0.68″
Dixon Lake, MN: 0.21″
Northome, MN: 0.58″
Togo, MN: 0.37″
Duluth, MN (NWS) 0.30″
Embarrass, MN: 0.52″
Kabetogama, MN: 0.77″
3 E of Orr, MN: 0.37″
Silver Bay, MN: 0.23″
Finland, MN: 0.26″
3 S of Ashland, WI: 0.22″
Butternut, WI: 0.20″
4 W of Clam Lake, WI: 0.19″
Today’s Weather Summary for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin
Low pressure of 1006mb was over Eastern Lake Superior with Monday’s frontal boundary now lined up from East Central Upper Michigan to Central Wisconsin to Northern Iowa. A secondary cold front was moving into the Northern Plains late This Afternoon. Partly to mostly cloudy skies were found in the area Today with a few showers passing through parts of Northern Minnesota This Afternoon while early Morning showers affected portions of Eastern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin. Highs Today were in the 70s to lower 80s with 60s in far Northern Minnesota. Winds were out of the west or southwest at 10 to 20 mph.
Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin
Short Term Forecast – Confidence: High.
Tonight (September 10)
Spotty showers will come to an end This Evening, but a few more showers or possibly even a thunderstorm may affect parts of Northern Minnesota after Midnight as a cold front moves closer to the Upper Midwest. Partly to mostly cloudy skies can be expected with lows in the 50s and lower 60s, but a few 40s can’t be ruled out. Winds will be out of the south, west or east at 5 to 15 mph.
Wednesday and Wednesday Night (September 11)
A cold front will pass through the Northland on Wednesday and this front could pop a shower or thunderstorm but coverage should be limited. Partly to mostly cloudy skies are forecast this period with highs Tomorrow in the 70s to lower 80s. Lows Tomorrow Night will be in the 40s and 50s. Winds will turn to the north/west at 10 to 20 mph.
Extended Forecast – Confidence: High.
Thursday through Saturday (September 12-14)
Cooler temperatures for Thursday and Friday with highs in the 50s and 60s, maybe a few 70s in Southern areas on Thursday. Low temps Thursday Night will be in the 30s and 40s and there is a chance for patchy frost for areas away from Lake Superior. Lows Friday Night will be in the 40s. Highs Saturday will be in the 60s and 70s. Little if any rain through this period.
Long Range Forecast – Confidence: High.
A few showers are possible in the area on Sunday (15th) but I gotta say the model trends don’t look very promising if you want a widespread soaking rain. Perhaps a better chance for rain at some point next week as a WSW flow aloft develops along with an upper trough out west, this could possibly lead to a greater potential for some rain across the Upper Midwest sometime during the 16-20 time frame. Near to above average temperatures are expected through this period.
-Mid to late September warm wave? Long range model trends are leaning in that direction. This is the analog temperature probability forecast centered on September 21, 2013 per Climate Prediction Center. By looking at this map it looks like a trough would setup west of the Rockies (cooler temperatures) with a ridge for the Central/Eastern U.S. resulting in warmer than average temperatures.
5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR
.Tonight… Isolated showers early. Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 55 to 60. Wind variable to southwest at 5 to 15 mph.
.Wednesday… Partly to mostly sunny. Isolated showers or thunderstorms possible. High 76 to 81. Wind west to southwest at 10 to 20 mph, becoming northwest.
.Wednesday Night… Partly cloudy. Low 47 to 52. Wind north at 10 to 15 mph.
.Thursday… Partly cloudy. High 60 to 65.
.Thursday Night… Partly cloudy. Low 40 to 45.
.Friday… Partly cloudy. High 60 to 65.
.Friday Night… Partly cloudy. Low 42 to 47.
.Saturday… Partly sunny. High 65 to 70.
Normal temperatures for Today
Sunrise Wednesday: 6:41 AM CDT
Sunset Wednesday: 7:28 PM CDT