/Issued 4:06 PM CDT, Friday, September 13, 2013/
-Future radar valid for late Saturday Afternoon (4pm) Some welcome rain for much of Central, Eastern, and Southern Minnesota and West Central Wisconsin. (Source, 18z NAM HIRES model)
-Total rainfall forecast for Saturday and Saturday Night. Heavier totals targeting Northern Minnesota and much of Central/Southern Minnesota. Note the purple area in between – not much rain is expected in those areas, that does include Duluth and Superior. (Source, 18z 4km High Res NAM)
Weather Tidbits for Duluth, MN (Airport location)
*Low temperature of 38 degrees This Morning (September 13) is the coldest minimum temperature since June 3 (37 degrees)
*So far this year there’s been 92 days (85 days is average) with a high temperature of at least 70 degrees and 42 days with a high temperature of at least 80 degrees.
*Have we seen the last 70 and 80 degree high temperatures this year? Probably not when it comes to a 70F high, but I do think we’ve seen the last of the 80s until next spring. Note: Last year, the final 80 degree high temperature occurred on September 11. The final 70 degree high temperature occurred on October 3.
Low temperature report for September 13, 2013
Source: National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota
Duluth, MN: 38 degrees
International Falls, MN: 38 degrees
Hibbing, MN: 34 degrees
Two Harbors, MN: 36 degrees
Silver Bay, MN: 32 degrees
Grand Marais, MN (Airport) 32 degrees
Eveleth, MN: 34 degrees
Ely, MN: 36 degrees
Moose Lake, MN: 34 degrees
Hinckley, MN: 34 degrees
McGregor, MN: 34 degrees
Cloquet, MN: 36 degrees
Superior, WI: 33 degrees
Togo, MN: 35 degrees
Brimson, MN: 26 degrees
Embarrass, MN: 32 degrees
Butternut, WI: 35 degrees
Prentice, WI: 33 degrees
Upson, WI: 34 degrees
8 WNW of Minong, WI: 30 degrees
Today’s Weather Summary for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin
High pressure of 1026mb covered the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes Today. Outside of some fair weather cumulus clouds skies were mostly sunny Today with high temperatures in the 60s to lower 70s which is pretty close to average for the time of year. Winds were out of the south or east at 5 to 15 mph.
-Seeing quite an amplified/energetic weather pattern Today with two strong systems showing up in the water vapor satellite imagery. The 1st system is affecting the NE U.S., and the 2nd one is over the Western U.S., and that one has a tremendous amount of deep tropical moisture to work with which is quite unusual. (Source, Unisys weather)
Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin
Short Term Forecast – Confidence: Medium.
Tonight (September 13)
No issues with the weather Tonight as high pressure maintains it’s hold on our area. Clear to partly cloudy skies are forecast with lows in the 40s with some 30s possible especially in Northwest Wisconsin. Winds will be out of the south at 5 to 15 mph.
Saturday and Saturday Night (September 14)
Saturday AM into the midday hours look dry in the Northland, after that we may see some rain affect portions of the area. A cold front approaching from the NW combined with an upper level system moving out of the Rockies and Western High Plains region should generate some rain over parts of the Upper Midwest. At the moment it looks like Northern Minnesota, including the Borderland, Iron Range and Arrowhead as well as East Central Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin will have the greatest potential to get some rain Saturday Afternoon into Saturday Night…The area in between which is generally the Highway 2 corridor could escape with little if any rain the way it looks now, however, some showers can’t be ruled out in that area especially Saturday Night.
Partly sunny to mostly cloudy skies are forecast Tomorrow with highs in the 60s and 70s. Mostly cloudy skies are on tap Tomorrow Night with lows in the 40s and 50s. Winds on Saturday will be out of the south/west at 10 to 20 mph. Winds Saturday Night will be out of the south, north, or east at 10 to 15 mph.
Extended Forecast – Confidence: High.
Sunday through Tuesday (September 15-17)
Another shot of cool air moves in on Sunday as strong high pressure builds into the area behind Saturday’s cold front. High temperatures are forecast to be in the 50s and 60s with lows in the 30s and 40s with some 20s not out of the question in the typical cold spots around the Northland. Looks mainly dry through this period with highs Monday and Tuesday in the 60s with lows Monday Night in the 40s.
Long Range Forecast – Confidence: Medium.
Long range model trends continue to point toward a more active weather pattern evolving as we head past mid-September – this may result in more widespread rain events over the Upper Midwest. The 1st system to watch will be next Wednesday/Thursday (18-19) Showers and possibly even a few thunderstorms will be possible in the Northland with that one. The other time frame to keep an eye on looks to be sometime between the 22nd-23rd, this could be our next opportunity for some rain. Near to above average temperatures are forecast through this period.
-7 day rainfall forecast valid thru Friday, September 20, 2013. Two systems during this period could bring rain to Minnesota, the 1st is Tomorrow, the 2nd would be during the middle part of next week. (Source, Weather Prediction Center)
-Analog temperature probability forecast for the 8-14 day period centered on September 24, 2013. A cooler bias showing up west of the Rockies (500mb trough) A warmer bias for most areas east of the Rockies – potential SW flow/ridging=warmer than average temperatures? We shall see… (Source, Climate Prediction Center)
5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR
.Tonight… Mostly clear. Low 41 to 46. Wind south around 12 mph.
.Saturday… Partly to mostly cloudy. High 65 to 70. Wind southwest at 10 to 20 mph.
.Saturday Night… Occasional showers possible. Mostly cloudy. Low 50 to 55. Wind southwest, becoming north to northeast at 10 to 15 mph.
.Sunday… Partly sunny. High 55 to 60.
.Sunday Night… Partly cloudy. Patchy frost possible away from Lake Superior. Low 35 to 40.
.Monday… Mostly sunny. High 60 to 65.
.Monday Night… Partly cloudy. Low 40 to 45.
.Tuesday… Partly to mostly cloudy. High 60 to 65.
Normal temperatures for Today
Sunrise Saturday: 6:45 AM CDT
Sunset Saturday: 7:22 PM CDT