/Issued 4:11 PM CDT, Tuesday, September 17, 2013/
-Something you don’t see everyday let alone in mid-September! Several tornado and severe thunderstorm warnings covering parts of Idaho and Wyoming This Afternoon. Note: This is part of the system that will be moving through the Upper Midwest on Thursday. (Source, GR3 version 2 radar)
Red=Severe t-storm warning
Source, Twitter @Skilling
*August was the 342nd consecutive month globally with a temperature surplus.
*August 2013 tied with August 2005 as the 4th warmest globally since 1880.
*This stat is really amazing! Have to go back to 1978 to find an August that had a temperature deficit.
Today’s Weather Summary for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin
Northeast Minnesota and much of Northwest Wisconsin lucked out Today with lots of sunshine whereas the Western/Southern parts of the Northland saw more clouds, in fact much of Minnesota is shrouded in cloud-cover Today. High temperatures were in the 60s and 70s with winds from the south or southeast at 5 to 15 mph with higher gusts.
Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin
Short Term Forecast – Confidence: High.
Tonight (September 17)
Skies will remain or become mostly cloudy during the night and areas of drizzle and fog could also develop as warm/moist air continues to push NE into the area. Elevated showers and thunderstorms may also affect Eastern Minnesota and Northern Wisconsin Overnight, although the better chances for rain later Tonight look to be in Southeast Minnesota and West Central Wisconsin. Lows will be in the 50s to lower 60s with south or east winds at 10 to 15 mph.
Wednesday and Wednesday Night (September 18)
It will be turning more humid during this period as low pressure moves into the Northern Plains resulting in a southerly flow of warm/humid air out ahead of this system. Dew points are expected to climb into the upper 50s to middle 60s which is rather high for this time of year. Partly to mostly cloudy skies are forecast with areas of fog and drizzle possible as well. Highs Tomorrow will be in the 70s to lower 80s with 50s and 60s near Lake Superior. Lows Tomorrow Night will be in the 50s and 60s. South or east winds can be expected at 10 to 20 mph. A few showers or thunderstorms are possible Tomorrow Morning in Northern Wisconsin otherwise this period looks generally dry despite increasing amounts of instability. The air looks too capped (warm) to fire off any storms.
Extended Forecast – Confidence: High.
Thursday through Saturday (September 19-21)
A strong area of low pressure is forecast to move into Western Ontario on Thursday and will continue on its ENE track into early Saturday. A warm front and cold front connected to the low will be moving through the Northland on Thursday. The airmass out ahead of these boundaries could become quite unstable on Thursday with CAPE of 1000-2000 j/kg and Lifted Indices of -3 to -6C. Forcing/lift associated with this system and an upper level trough combined with a 70-90 knot upper level jet nosing in from the Northern Plains could lead to scattered showers and thunderstorms in our area on Thursday. There’s even a threat for strong to severe thunderstorms with favorable amounts of wind shear in place, but will have to get at least a little bit of clearing to build up the instability, also the timing of when the cold front moves through remains a little uncertain as the NAM has been and continues to be slightly quicker compared to the GFS and ECMWF…The slower solutions could lead to a greater risk for stronger convection in the Northland on Thursday. Stay tuned.
We dry out then on Friday and Saturday with a cooler airmass moving in behind this storm. High temperatures on Thursday will be in the 60s and 70s with a few 80s even possible depending on sky conditions. Highs Friday and Saturday will drop into the 50s and 60s. Lows Thursday Night will be in the 40s and 50s. Lows Friday Night will be in the 30s and 40s with a few 20s possible.
-The image below represents the moisture levels at 850mb (around 5000 feet) valid for Thursday PM per 18z NAM. Dry air shows up in the brown/beige type colors while moist air is represented by the green/blue colors on this map. Gotta keep an eye on Thursday Afternoon, if things can come together just right there could be some severe thunderstorms in parts of Minnesota and Wisconsin. There’s quite a dry punch showing up in the computer models on Thursday, and that surge of dry air clashing with the more humid airmass might help to generate some stronger storms.
-Haven’t seen darker blue colors this widespread or this far south yet this early fall season. Here’s the 850mb temperature forecast valid for Saturday AM. 0 to -2C H85 temps covering most of the Northland per 12z EUROPEAN model.
Long Range Forecast – Confidence: High.
Looks dry on Sunday (22nd) Showers will be possible on Monday (23rd) Another risk for some rain during the 25th-27th time frame. Near normal temperatures are expected through this period.
5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR
.Tonight… Becoming mostly cloudy. Patchy fog or drizzle possible late. Isolated showers after Midnight. Low 52 to 57. Wind south to southeast at 10 to 15 mph.
.Wednesday… Areas of fog and drizzle. Mostly cloudy. High 62 to 67. Wind east at 10 to 20 mph.
.Wednesday Night… Areas of fog and drizzle. Mostly cloudy. Low 55 to 60. Wind east at 10 to 15 mph.
.Thursday… Scattered showers or thunderstorms possible. High 65 to 70.
.Thursday Night… Mostly cloudy. Showers possible early. Low 45 to 50.
.Friday… Cooler. Partly sunny. High 55 to 60.
.Friday Night… Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 37 to 42.
.Saturday… Partly sunny. High 55 to 60.
Normal temperatures for Today
Sunrise Wednesday: 6:51 AM CDT
Sunset Wednesday: 7:14 PM CDT