/Issued 4:02 PM CDT, Thursday, September 26, 2013/
*Still looking at a widespread quarter to half inch of rain in the Northland by Saturday Evening with heavier totals possible toward the Ontario border per 12z ECMWF. (Source, EuroWX.com)
*Rainfall forecast valid thru 7 PM Friday. (Source, Weather Prediction Center)
*Rainfall forecast valid 7 PM Friday thru 7 PM Saturday. (Source, Weather Prediction Center)
*So far this year, New Mexico is the winner for having the most extreme weather in the U.S. (Source, The Weather Channel)
*The last time the Twin Cities had a frost in September was back in 2000 on the 24th (13 years ago) Doesn’t look like there’ll get any frost before the end of September this year. (Source, MPR Updraft blog)
*The hailstorms that hit Minnesota back in August is the latest billion dollar weather disaster to hit the U.S. The total for 2013 is now up to 6 in the U.S. with 25 worldwide. (Source, MPR Updraft blog)
*Preliminary numbers: 79 flood deaths and 22 lightning deaths in the U.S. so far this year. 15 tornadoes in Wisconsin and 13 tornadoes in Minnesota in 2013. (Source, Twitter; @tshea_wcm)
*45.5% of the U.S. is in Moderate to Exceptional drought this week per latest drought monitor. (Source, Twitter; @NOAANCDC)
Drought Monitor update as of September 24, 2013
Source: Climate Prediction Center
*71% of the state is Abnormally Dry – same as last week.
*53% of the state is in Moderate Drought – Up from 51% last week.
*8% of the state is in Severe Drought – Up from 7% last week.
Note: 28% of Minnesota is drought free – same as last week.
*59% of the state is Abnormally Dry – same as last week.
*31% of the state is in Moderate Drought – Down from 41% last week.
*16% of the state is in Severe Drought – Down from 18% last week.
Note: 40% of Wisconsin is drought free – same as last week.
Today’s Weather Summary for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin
Away from Lake Superior it was another unseasonably mild late September day with high temperatures in the 70s under partly cloudy to sunny skies. Near Lake Superior, a gusty east wind continued with highs in the 50s and 60s along with periods of low clouds, fog, and some drizzle. The surface map late This Afternoon featured an area of low pressure averaging 996mb over far Southeast Saskatchewan with a few other lows averaging 996-1002mb over the Rockies and Western High Plains. A cold front was over the Eastern Dakotas.
Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin
Short Term Forecast – Confidence: High.
Tonight (September 26)
Partly to mostly cloudy skies will be found in our area Tonight with low clouds, fog, and drizzle near Lake Superior. A few showers or thunderstorms may develop after Midnight in Western/Northwest portions of the Northland. Lows will be in the 50s and 60s with south or east winds at 10 to 20 mph.
Friday and Friday Night (September 27)
Low pressure will be moving into the Northern Plains with a cold front heading toward Western Minnesota. A warm and fairly moist southerly flow of air will be found across the Upper Midwest out ahead of this system on Friday. High temperatures will be in the 70s with a few 80s possible as well. It will be cooler though along the North Shore of Lake Superior where some fog and low clouds may linger at times. Lows Tomorrow Night will be in the 50s and 60s. Winds will be out of the south or east at 10 to 20 mph.
Scattered showers or thunderstorms are possible this period, generally in North Central Minnesota down toward the Aitkin and Brainerd Lakes vicinity. Northwest Wisconsin should remain dry this period. The chance for severe thunderstorms continues to be on the low side due to a limited amount of instability with CAPE generally less than 500 j/kg with Lifted Indices around 0 to -2C. The shear along with the low level jet, mid/upper level winds do look strong though and would be favorable for severe thunderstorm development, but the lack of instability should keep things from getting too extreme.
*15z SREF calibrated severe thunderstorm probability forecast for Friday Afternoon/Evening. Still seeing some decent numbers for severe t-storms from West Central into Northern Minnesota. Gotta watch it, but again I don’t think the chance for severe weather is that good for Tomorrow.
Extended Forecast – Confidence: High.
Saturday through Monday (September 28-30)
Rain will occur over the entire Northland on Saturday. The rain will likely spread east/northeast during the day, so Eastern/Northeast Minnesota as well as Northwest Wisconsin may stay dry during the Morning hours before the rain pushes in Saturday Afternoon. The system responsible in bringing this rain to the Northland will deepen as it pulls out of the Upper Midwest and into Ontario by Saturday Night. Rain will end in our area from SW-NE by Saturday Evening. Dry weather returns for Sunday and Monday.
Highs on Saturday will range from the 50s in Northern Minnesota to the 60s and a few 70s in Eastern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin. Highs Sunday and Monday won’t cool down at all with readings in the 60s and 70s. Lows Saturday Night will be in the 30s and 40s. Lows Sunday Night will be in the 40s and 50s.
Note: Looks pretty windy Saturday into early Sunday as the area of low pressure intensifies. Winds will turn into the west and could gust to 25-35 mph Saturday Afternoon/Night.
Long Range Forecast – Confidence: High.
Near to above average temperatures are forecast from the 1st-3rd. A storm system may impact the area sometime between the 4th-6th with possible rain along with near to below average temperatures.
*850mb temperatures for valid for next Saturday, October 5, 2013 per 12z ECMWF. The area in white=0C 850mb temperatures. If this verifies, then next weekend would be a chilly one over a large chunk of the Rockies, Northern/Central Plains and Upper Midwest. Stay tuned! (Source, EuroWX.com)
5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR
.Tonight… Breezy. Areas of fog and drizzle. Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 51 to 56. Wind east to southeast at 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 25 mph possible near Lake Superior.
.Friday… Partly to mostly cloudy. Isolated showers or thunderstorms possible. High 72 to 77 but cooler near Lake Superior. Wind southeast at 10 to 20 mph.
.Friday Night… Partly to mostly cloudy. Isolated showers or thunderstorms possible. Low 57 to 62. Wind southeast at 10 to 15 mph.
.Saturday… Rain developing, especially after 10 AM. Mostly cloudy. High 62 to 67.
.Saturday Night… Breezy. Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 40 to 45. West winds could occasionally gust to 30 mph.
.Sunday… Partly cloudy. High 65 to 70.
.Sunday Night… Partly cloudy. Low 45 to 50.
.Monday… Partly cloudy. High 68 to 73.
Normal temperatures for Today
Sunrise Friday: 7:02 AM CDT
Sunset Friday: 6:56 PM CDT