/Issued 4:16 PM CDT, Saturday, September 28, 2013/
*12z European computer model brings down a rather chilly airmass for next weekend. The image below is the 850mb temperature forecast for 7 AM Saturday, October 5, 2013. Widespread 0 to -6C 850mb temperatures next Saturday across the Upper Midwest and Western Great Lakes, this could result in daytime highs struggling to get out of the 40s across the Northland 1 week from Today.
*12z European model does show a light dusting of snow late next week over extreme Northern Minnesota, probably during the Friday PM-early Saturday time frame (October 4-5) Stay tuned! (Source, EuroWX.com)
Today’s Weather Summary for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin
An area of low pressure averaging 996mb was over Southern Ontario as of 3 PM with strong height falls of 120-150 meters covering the Upper Midwest as this fall storm continues to deepen. The day started with partial sunshine for some along with mild southerly breezes. Rain quickly moved into Western parts of the Northland by mid-Morning, and this rain area advanced steadily north/east during the Afternoon as a potent cold front combined with a 70-90 knot mid level jet and a 100+ knot upper level jet resulted in some decent lift/forcing. A narrow band of low-topped convection associated with the cold front did sweep NE across Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin This Afternoon, this band of thunder-free rain showers did produce some strong wind gusts of 25-45 mph thanks in part to 40-60 knot winds up at 5,000 feet, some of that did mix down to the surface as that thin line of showers moved through. High temperatures Today were in the 60s and 70s but did fall into the 50s behind the cold front and as the rain was moving through. Winds Today shifted from the south to the west at 10 to 20 mph. Note: Rainfall totals Today were generally in the 0.20-0.50″ range per MesoWest data.
*Kind of a textbook storm on the satellite image This Afternoon. Chilly/windy/rainy conditions in the deformation band (west-northwest of the surface low) which affected Eastern North Dakota and Northwest Minnesota Today, while milder temperatures and a band of rain were found south/east of the surface low Today. (Source, unisys weather)
Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin
Short Term Forecast – Confidence: High.
Tonight (September 28)
Low pressure will deepen to 988-992mb Tonight as it continues to lift NE thru Central/Northern Ontario. A steadier rain affecting the Arrowhead of Minnesota and Northern Wisconsin late This Afternoon will end before 7 PM. Spotty showers are possible This Evening behind this main band of rain with mainly dry weather during the Overnight hours. Partly to mostly cloudy skies are forecast with lows in the 30s and 40s. Winds will be out of the west at 10 to 20 mph with higher gusts.
Sunday and Sunday Night (September 29)
A nice way to end the weekend with high temperatures Tomorrow in the 60s and lower 70s with minimum temperatures Sunday Night in the 40s to around 50 degrees. Southwest winds are expected at 10 to around 20 mph.
Extended Forecast – Confidence: High.
Monday through Wednesday (September 30-October 2)
Looks mainly dry during this period with high temperatures in the 60s and 70s on Monday and Tuesday and in the 60s on Wednesday. Lows Monday Night and Tuesday Night will be in the 40s and 50s. A cold front will be moving through the Upper Midwest early next week, but no precipitation is expected to accompany this frontal boundary.
Long Range Forecast – Confidence: Medium.
A storm system may affect the Northland late next week (3rd-5th) The strength, timing, and track of this potential storm is still somewhat uncertain so stay tuned to later updates. Per latest model guidance it looks like rain is a pretty good bet from Thursday into Friday, possibly lingering into Saturday depending on how quick/slow this storm moves through. Can’t even rule out an isolated thunderstorm threat either on Thursday or Friday but alot of that hinges upon how far north a warm front gets. Also, there is still potential albeit a slight one for the rain to mix with or change to snow Friday or early Saturday, mainly over the Arrowhead of Minnesota and along the Minnesota/Ontario border…This doesn’t look like a significant snow event at the moment, but things could change. Near to below average temperatures are expected from the 3rd-6th with near normal temperatures on the 7th-8th.
5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR
.Tonight… Breezy. Spotty showers before 8 PM. Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 40 to 45. Wind west to southwest at 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 25 mph.
.Sunday… Partly cloudy. High 66 to 71. Wind southwest at 10 to 20 mph.
.Sunday Night… Partly cloudy. Low 45 to 50. Wind south at 5 to 15 mph.
.Monday… Partly cloudy. High 70 to 75.
.Monday Night… Partly cloudy. Low 50 to 55.
.Tuesday… Partly cloudy. High 68 to 73.
.Tuesday Night… Partly cloudy. Low 42 to 47.
.Wednesday… Partly cloudy. High 60 to 65.
Normal temperatures for Today
Sunrise Sunday: 7:05 AM CDT
Sunset Sunday: 6:52 PM CDT