/Issued 3:58 PM CDT, Thursday, October 3, 2013/
***A powerful autumn storm is about ready to hit the Upper Midwest. The main impacts will occur Friday into Saturday***
October tornado stats from the NWS in La Crosse, Wisconsin (data since 1980)
Minnesota: 21 tornadoes
Wisconsin: 8 tornadoes
Iowa: 13 tornadoes
-The last time a tornado occurred in October in Minnesota was in 2004; In Wisconsin 2010; In Iowa 2007.
*15z SREF tornado ingredients forecast for Friday Afternoon/Night. A risk for supercells and tornadoes does exist Tomorrow in Southeast South Dakota, Eastern Nebraska, much of Iowa, South Central Minnesota, and Southwest Wisconsin.
*15z SREF calibrated severe thunderstorm probability forecast valid for Friday and Friday Night. High numbers showing up in far Southern Minnesota, Southwest Wisconsin, Southeast South Dakota, and much of Iowa.
*Surface map valid at 1 PM Friday. Low pressure along the Nebraska/Kansas border and a frontal boundary extending NE into far Southern Minnesota. Rainy north of that front. Severe weather possible along the front and near the “L” (surface low) with heavy snow and blizzard conditions in the blue areas on the images below.
*Surface map forecast at 7 PM Friday.
*Surface map forecast at 7 AM Saturday.
*72-hour snowfall forecast for South Dakota from the National Weather Service in Rapid City. Very impressive snowfall totals ranging from 12-21″ by late Saturday Night.
Rainfall report for October 2, 2013
Source: National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota
Duluth, MN: 0.22″
Brainerd, MN: 0.99″
Ashland, WI: 0.52″
Hayward, WI: 0.46″
Bruno, MN: 0.48″
12 N of Isle, MN: 0.72″
3 NE of Nisswa, MN: 0.59″
3 E of Wright, MN: 0.51″
Duluth, MN (NWS) 0.22″
4 E of Island Lake, MN: 0.26″
Butternut, WI: 0.38″
Gile, WI: 0.21″
Gurney, WI: 0.29″
Park Falls, WI: 0.78″
Prentice, WI: 1.20″
9 N of Bayfield, WI: 0.19″
4 W of Clam Lake, WI: 0.32″
Gordon, WI: 0.32″
Sarona, WI: 0.63″
9 SE of Webster, WI: 0.63″
Drought update as of October 1, 2013
Source: Climate Prediction Center
*72% of the state is Abnormally Dry, up from 71% last week.
*46% of the state is in Moderate Drought, down from 53% last week.
*8% of the state is in Severe Drought, same as last week.
Note: 27% of Minnesota is drought-free, down from 28% last week.
*59% of the state is Abnormally Dry. Same as last week.
*31% of the state is in Moderate Drought. Same as last week.
*16% of the state is in Severe Drought. Same as last week.
Note: 40% of Wisconsin is drought-free. Same as last week.
Today’s Weather Summary for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin
A stationary front/warm front stretched from Southern Nebraska to along the Minnesota – Iowa border to Southern Wisconsin late This Afternoon with low pressure of 1008mb over Southern Minnesota and a few other lows averaging 1001-1003mb over Colorado and the Western High Plains. Partly to mostly cloudy skies were common Today in far Northern Minnesota while generally overcast skies along with some rain affected East Central Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin with a few thunderstorms also occurring This Afternoon. Highs were in the 50s and 60s with north or east winds at 5 to 15 mph with higher gusts near Lake Superior.
*12-hour water vapor satellite loop. A powerful storm continues to dig into the Rockies Today with 130 knot upper level winds blasting SE out of the Pacific Northwest. (Source, unisys weather)
Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin
Short Term Forecast – Confidence: High.
Tonight (October 3)
A warm front should remain over Northern Iowa Tonight with low pressure moving into/developing in the Western High Plains. Moisture lifting up and over that warm front will lead to some rain over the Northland Tonight. Isolated thunderstorms are possible as well, especially in Eastern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin. Lows will be in the 40s and 50s with north or east winds at 5 to 15 mph with higher gusts near Lake Superior.
Friday and Friday Night (October 4)
Low pressure averaging 1000-1002mb is forecast to move from Western Kansas to Northwest Iowa during this period with a warm front across Southern Minnesota. An 850mb jet of 30-45 knots will be in place NE of the surface low on Friday which will continue to produce a warm/moist advection pattern. Strong lift associated with the approaching low and a potent H5 trough will lead to periods of rain in our area Tomorrow and Tomorrow Night. A few thunderstorms are also possible in East Central Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin with a low chance of an isolated severe thunderstorm along and south of a line from Pine City to Minong to Hayward.
Highs Tomorrow will mainly be in the 50s with lows in the 40s and 50s. Winds will be out of the east at 10 to 20 mph with gusts of 25 to 40 mph developing near Lake Superior.
Extended Forecast – Confidence: High.
Saturday through Monday (October 5-7)
A strong fall storm will be moving NE through the Upper Midwest and Western Great Lakes on Saturday. This system will pull off to our east on Sunday. Rain will continue over the Northland on Saturday with lingering showers on Sunday. Monday looks dry. Highs will be in the 40s and 50s through this period with a few 60s possible on Saturday in Southern parts of Northwest Wisconsin. Lows will be in the 30s and 40s Saturday Night and Sunday Night.
*Precipitation forecast valid until 1 AM Sunday. Some spots in Western South Dakota could pick up 4-8″ of precip from this storm. The Twin Ports could see upwards of 1-2″ of rain. Note: Legend is on the top of this image. (Source, 18z 4km high-res NAM)
*Storm track forecast per Weather Prediction Center. Looks like it’ll take until Sunday Morning for the low to move ENE of the Northland. “L” (low pressure) by 12z-7 AM Sunday is forecast to move into Northern Lake Superior.
Long Range Forecast – Confidence: Medium.
A new storm could target the Upper Midwest sometime during the 9th-12th with possible wind/rain. Stay tuned. Temperatures should be fairly close to seasonal averages through this period.
*NWS Duluth hazards map. Gale watch has been issued for the open waters of Western Lake Superior from Friday Evening thru Saturday Morning. This gale watch may be extended farther west to include parts of the North Shore and South Shore of Lake Superior including the Twin Ports Harbor. Wave heights over the open waters of Lake Superior could reach 14-22 feet by Friday Night. Up to 9 foot waves possible in the Duluth Harbor.
5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR
.Tonight… Light rain and drizzle. Patchy fog. Low 48 to 53. Wind east at 10 to 20 mph.
.Friday… Windy. Occasional rain. Drizzle and fog possible. High 50 to 55. Wind east to northeast at 15 to 25 mph with 30 to 40 mph gusts.
.Friday Night… Windy. Rain. Isolated thunderstorms possible. Low 45 to 50. Wind east to northeast at 15 to 25 mph with 30 to 40 mph gusts.
.Saturday… Breezy. Occasional rain. High 45 to 50. Wind east to northeast at 15 to 25 mph.
.Saturday Night… Showers possible. Mostly cloudy. Low 38 to 43.
.Sunday… Showers possible. Considerable cloudiness. High 43 to 48.
.Sunday Night… Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 35 to 40.
.Monday… Partly cloudy. High 52 to 57.
Normal temperatures for Today
Sunrise Friday: 7:12 AM CDT
Sunset Friday: 6:42 PM CDT