/Issued 3:39 PM CDT, Tuesday, October 8, 2013/
*The next storm later this week takes the Western scenic route. What this means for the Northland is mild temperatures and just a few rain showers on Friday. If there was more moisture around, thunderstorms and even a threat for severe weather would probably exist over much of Minnesota, but that looks very unlikely at the moment.
-Surface low tracks out of Northeast Colorado and into Northwest Nebraska between Thursday Evening and Friday Morning. Low pressure will then continue on a NNE track thru Saturday. (Source, Weather Prediction Center)
*Here’s what this late week storm looks like in the mid levels of the atmosphere. A nice/potent 500mb trough heading into the Northern Plains on Friday. (Source, 12z ECMWF)
Today’s Weather Summary for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin
An area of low pressure averaging 997mb was over Western Manitoba with a warm front extending southeast of that low through Northern Minnesota. Another beautiful fall day in the Northland with sunshine along with a fair amount of high level cloudiness. High temperatures were in the 60s and 70s with mid 50s at the head of Lake Superior. Winds were out of the south or southwest at 10 to 20 mph with a few higher gusts. Onshore winds prevailed though from Downtown Duluth and along the North Shore of Lake Superior.
-Today’s 70 degree high temperature at the Duluth Airport makes it 101 days and counting with a maximum temperature of at least 70F in 2013. Today also marked the 3rd day this month with a high temperature of at least 70 degrees compared to just 1 day in October 2012.
-So far this October there’s been 26 preliminary tornado reports in the U.S. The average for October is 61 tornadoes.
-2013 is still running way below average though in the number of tornadoes with just 767 through October 7. 2012 thru October 7 had 996 tornadoes. 2011 thru October 7 had 1,800 tornadoes. (Source, @WeatherNationWX via Twitter)
*This is pretty cool! You can see the track of last Friday’s tornado that hit Wayne, Nebraska in this satellite image from MODIS. Note the yellow arrows and the line that shows up – that’s the track of last Friday’s tornado. Neat!
Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin
Short Term Forecast – Confidence: High.
Tonight (October 8)
Clear to partly cloudy skies can be expected Tonight with lows in the 40s and lower 50s. Winds will be out of the south at 10 to 20 mph.
Wednesday and Wednesday Night (October 9)
Dry and partly cloudy this period. Highs in the 60s and 70s with lows in the 40s and 50s. Winds will be out of the south, west, or east at 10 to 20 mph.
Extended Forecast – Confidence: High.
Thursday through Saturday (October 10-12)
Still dry on Thursday with highs in the 60s and 70s with lows in the 40s and 50s. A strong area of low pressure and a potent upper level trough will lift north out of the Western High Plains and into the Northern Plains from Thursday into Friday. This system will drag a warm front and cold front through the area from Friday into early Saturday. It’s an impressive system, but is lacking moisture, so at the moment it just looks like a few scattered rain showers will occur in the Northland on Friday into Friday Night with mainly dry weather returning on Saturday as strong low pressure heads into Manitoba and Ontario. Highs on Friday will mainly be in the 60s with lows in the 40s and 50s. Highs on Saturday will be in the 50s.
Long Range Forecast – Confidence: High.
Sunday/Monday (13th-14) look dry. Some rain is possible from the 15th-17th thanks to a potential storm that could take shape over the Central Plains and Upper Midwest. Temperatures should remain pretty close to seasonal averages through this period.
*Here’s the next system to watch for the middle of next week (Wednesday, October 16, 2013) This one takes a track – at least for now that would be favorable for a more widespread rain event in the Upper Midwest. Stay tuned. (Source, 12z ECMWF model)
*And finally before I get to the 5-day forecast here’s a radar loop of Winter Storm “Atlas” One hell of a storm! Enjoy! (Source, Josh Herman) http://www.theplayerstour.net/osnw3/photos/20131002-06_usradar.gif
5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR
.Tonight… Partly cloudy. Low 48 to 53. Wind south to southwest at 10 to 20 mph.
.Wednesday… Partly cloudy. High 68 to 73. Wind southwest at 10 to 20 mph.
.Wednesday Night… Partly cloudy. Low 45 to 50. Wind south to southeast at 5 to 15 mph.
.Thursday… Partly cloudy. High 63 to 68.
.Thursday Night… Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 48 to 53.
.Friday… Showers possible late. High 60 to 65.
.Friday Night… Scattered showers possible. Low 50 to 55.
.Saturday… Partly sunny. High 55 to 60.
Normal temperatures for Today
Sunrise Wednesday: 7:18 AM CDT
Sunset Wednesday: 6:32 PM CDT