/Issued 3:32 PM CDT, Wednesday, October 9, 2013/
-Another severe weather threat on Friday? Probably not, or at least nothing like what occurred farther south last Friday. This map shows where supercell thunderstorms are possible late Friday Afternoon/Evening. Noticing some values around 2-3 (yellow areas) in West Central and Northwest Minnesota. A lack of moisture and instability could play a large role in preventing any convection, but this setup will have to be monitored. (Source, 18z WRF model)
*Low chance for tornadoes Friday PM in the highlighted area on the map below. (Source, 15z SREF model)
*5% chance for severe thunderstorms on Friday in the brown shaded areas. (Source, NWS/Storm Prediction Center)
Today’s Weather Summary for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin
A warm/southwesterly flow covered the Upper Midwest Today with deep upper level troughs in place to our east and off to our west. Another gorgeous October day in the Northland with more sunshine compared to Tuesday. High temperatures were generally in the lower 70s with even a few mid 70s showing up late This Afternoon. Winds were out of the south at 5 to 15 mph, so less wind compared to 24 hours ago.
Note: The high temperature so far at the Duluth Airport Today: 73 degrees which is just 3 degrees shy of the record high temperature of 76 degrees set in 1960, 1955, and 1930.
Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin
Short Term Forecast – Confidence: High.
Tonight (October 9)
A frontal boundary will remain nearly stationary west and north of our area. Clear to partly cloudy skies are expected Tonight with lows in the 40s and 50s. Winds will be out of the south or east at 5 to 15 mph.
Thursday and Thursday Night (October 10)
Low pressure will develop and strengthen over Eastern Colorado and the Western High Plains this period with pressures dropping to around 996mb by Tomorrow Evening. Looks dry in our area under a partly to mostly cloudy sky. High temperatures will be in the 60s and 70s with lows in the 40s and 50s. South or east winds are forecast at 10 to 20 mph.
Extended Forecast – Confidence: High.
Friday through Sunday (October 11-13)
A strong area of low pressure averaging 991-996mb is forecast to move from Southwest South Dakota to Northeast North Dakota on Friday…This system will then move into Manitoba and Ontario this weekend. A cold front connected to the surface low is forecast to lift NE and through the Upper Midwest from Friday into early Saturday.
Not a lot of moisture along and ahead of this storm with dew points generally in the 40s and 50s which will help keep the instability (CAPE) on the low side, generally less than 500 j/kg. This system will have plenty of upper level support, however, with 60-70 knot mid level winds and over 90 knots in the upper levels. A 40-60 knot SSE 850mb jet stream is also expected on Friday over Minnesota. This storm if it had more moisture and instability would likely be a severe weather producer for the Upper Midwest, but that potential remains on the low side.
Looks like there will be a few rain showers in the Northland especially from Friday Afternoon into early Saturday. Isolated thunderstorms can’t be ruled out, mainly in Western/Northwest parts of the area. Saturday and Sunday look dry.
High temperatures will be in the 60s and 70s on Friday. 40s and 50s are on tap Saturday and Sunday as cooler – more seasonable temperatures move in behind this storm system. Low temperatures will mainly be in the 50s Friday Night, cooling to the 30s Saturday Night.
*Here’s the expected storm track later this week. Northeast Colorado Thursday Evening to Northeast North Dakota Friday Evening. This track is west of Minnesota and Wisconsin, so were on the mild side of this storm. (Source, Weather Prediction Center)
Long Range Forecast – Confidence: Medium.
Next Monday (14th) continues to look dry at this time. The period from Tuesday-Thursday (15th-17th) could turn unsettled once again as low pressure develops and passes south/east of Minnesota. This low combined with an upper level trough could bring us some rain during the 15th-17th time frame, but there are differences showing up in the computer models as to how far north this system will track, so stay tuned. Temperatures look like they will be pretty close to seasonal averages through this period.
*7-day precipitation forecast valid thru next Wednesday, October 16, 2013. The overall trend continues to be one that features a couple of precipitation events for the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest. Although the one on Friday looks to affect the Dakotas the most, there is another system showing up in the computer models toward the middle of next week which may hit areas a little farther south/east compared to the Friday storm. Stay tuned. (Source, Weather Prediction Center)
5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR
.Tonight… Mostly clear. Low 47 to 52. Wind south to southeast at 5 to 15 mph.
.Thursday… Partly cloudy. High 67 to 72 but cooler closer to Lake Superior. Wind southeast at 10 to 20 mph.
.Thursday Night… Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 48 to 53. Wind east to southeast at 10 to 20 mph.
.Friday… Partly sunny. High 63 to 68.
.Friday Night… Scattered showers possible. Mostly cloudy. Low 50 to 55.
.Saturday… Partly sunny. High 55 to 60.
.Saturday Night… Mostly clear. Low 35 to 40.
.Sunday… Partly cloudy. High 50 to 55.
Normal temperatures for Today
Sunrise Thursday: 7:20 AM CDT
Sunset Thursday: 6:30 PM CDT