/Issued 3:47 PM CDT, Thursday, October 10, 2013/
*Looking at another opportunity for isolated strong – severe thunderstorms on Friday, primarily in West Central and possibly South Central Minnesota. Image below is the calibrated severe thunderstorm probability forecast valid for Friday late Afternoon/Evening. (Source, 15z SREF model)
*Decent amounts of wind shear in place Friday along with good turning of winds with height, this may lead to rotating thunderstorms, and possibly even an isolated tornado threat Friday Afternoon/Evening in the outline area on the map. (Source, 15z SREF model)
*Future radar at 4 PM Friday. A couple lines of showers and possible t-storms pivoting north/northeast around a deep surface low which will move into the Northern Plains Tomorrow. (Source, 18z high-res NAM)
*Future radar at 8 PM Friday.
Drought update as of October 8, 2013
Source: Climate Prediction Center
-70% of the state is Abnormally Dry; Down from 72% last week.
-37% of the state is in Moderate Drought; Down from 46% last week.
-7% of the state is in Severe Drought; down from 8% last week.
Note: 29% of Minnesota is drought free this week, up from 27% last week.
-54% of the state is Abnormally Dry; Down from 59% last week.
-26% of the state is in Moderate Drought; Down from 31% last week.
-8% of the state is in Severe Drought; Down from 16% last week.
Note: 45% of Wisconsin is drought free this week, up from 40% last week.
Today’s Weather Summary for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin
The weather pattern looks pretty similar to 24 hours ago. Deep upper level trough covered the Western U.S. with a strong system heading into the Southwest U.S., another system is seen in water vapor satellite imagery diving SE into the Northwest U.S., out East another strong system continued to affect parts of the Northeast U.S. The Northland had another stellar fall day under partly to mostly sunny skies. Highs were in the 60s and 70s with more of a marine layer Today which kept highs in the upper 50s at the head of Lake Superior. Winds Today were out of the south or east at 10 to 20 mph.
Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin
Short Term Forecast – Confidence: High.
Tonight (October 10)
A strong area of low pressure averaging 994-996mb will move NE through the Western High Plains Tonight. Partly to mostly cloudy skies are expected here in the Northland with lows in the 40s and 50s. South or east winds are expected at 10 to 20 mph.
Friday and Friday Night (October 11)
Deep low pressure and a vigorous upper level trough is forecast to lift NNE through the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest during this period. A cold front connected to a surface low that’ll pass west-northwest of Minnesota will sweep NE through the state from Friday Afternoon into late Friday Night.
This will be a very dynamic storm with a 40-60 knot SE low level jet over the Upper Midwest along with a 50-70 knot mid level jet and upper level winds of around 90 knots.
Should be enough forcing associated with the upper trough, surface low, and cold front to kick off some showers. There also looks to be enough instability around to cause a few thunderstorms with CAPE of 500 j/kg or less and Lifted Indices of 0 to -3C. Note: The greatest chance for a few thunderstorms appears to be in Western/Northwest parts of our area, or from International Falls to Grand Rapids to Brainerd and points west from there.
Quite a bit of wind shear will be in place across Minnesota on Friday which often times would lead to severe thunderstorms, but a lack of moisture and deep instability with this system should keep the severe potential on the low side, but it’s still something to keep an eye on because if storms can organize enough they have the possibility of turning severe with supercells even possible, especially over West Central Minnesota.
High temperatures Tomorrow will be in the 60s and 70s with lows in the 40s and 50s. Southeast winds will eventually swing around to the southwest later Tomorrow Night once the cold front moves through. Wind speeds of 10 to 20 mph are expected this period with higher gusts possible.
*NWS/Storm Prediction Center’s severe thunderstorm risk area for Friday. 5-15% chance for strong winds, hail, and isolated tornadoes in Western, Central, and parts of Southern Minnesota. Stay weather aware.
*Precipitation total forecast for Friday – Saturday. Heaviest totals 1-3″ fall over the Northern Plains, lesser amounts further east. (Source, 18z high-res NAM)
Extended Forecast – Confidence: High.
Saturday-Monday (October 12-14)
Strong area of low pressure tracks into Manitoba and Western Ontario this weekend. Gusty winds, cooler temperatures and spotty showers are expected across the Northland on Saturday with dry weather on Sunday. Highs will be in the 40s and 50s Saturday and Sunday with lows in the 30s and 40s. A new storm looks like it’ll take shape over the Rockies/Plains next Monday and this system could start to affect our weather with some rain possible as soon as Monday, high temperatures will be in the 40s and 50s.
Long Range Forecast – Confidence: High.
The potential exists for a fairly potent storm to impact the Upper Midwest and Western Great Lakes during the 12th-15th time frame. Some differences showing up in the computer models with the track, timing, and strength of this storm so stay tuned. Based on latest model guidance, rain and wind will be possible in NE Minnesota and NW Wisconsin next Tuesday, possibly lingering into Wednesday (15th-16th) Although H85 temperatures cool to around 0 to -2C in parts of the Northland, temperatures near the surface look warm enough at the moment to keep precipitation in the form of rain, this could change though in coming days. Gusty onshore winds are also possible especially near Lake Superior early next week with gale force wind gusts possible. Near average temperatures are forecast through this period, possibly going below average toward the 17th-20th time frame.
*Surface map forecast valid for next Tuesday, October 15, 2013. The Weather Prediction Center is further south with the placement of the low early next week (Northern Missouri) compared to a more northerly track as seen in the 12z GFS, EURO, and CANADIAN models Today.
*Here’s an interesting map. 9 extra days between the last spring freeze and the 1st fall freeze in Minnesota and Wisconsin from 1991-2011 compared to the 1901-1960 period. Climate change playing a role? You decide. (Source, Paul Douglas/St. Cloud Times weatherblog)
Note: Duluth has yet to reach 32F this fall, usually occurs by now at least at the Airport.
5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR
.Tonight… Partly cloudy. Low 50 to 55. Wind east to southeast at 10 to 20 mph.
.Friday… Partly to mostly cloudy. High 65 to 70 but cooler near Lake Superior. Wind southeast at 15 to 25 mph.
.Friday Night… Scattered showers. Mostly cloudy. Low 50 to 55. Wind southeast at 10 to 20 mph becoming southwest toward dawn.
.Saturday… Considerable cloudiness. Spotty Afternoon showers possible. High 50 to 55. Southwest winds could occasionally gust to 25 mph.
.Saturday Night… Mostly cloudy. Low 35 to 40.
.Sunday… Partly cloudy. High 50 to 55.
.Sunday Night… Partly cloudy. Low 35 to 40.
.Monday… Increasing cloudiness. High 50 to 55.
Normal temperatures for Today
Sunrise Friday: 7:21 AM CDT
Sunset Friday: 6:28 PM CDT
-Thanks for reading and have a nice day.