/Issued 11:40 AM CDT, Friday, October 11, 2013/
*Today’s tornado probability forecast. Much of Western Minnesota is in a 2-5% risk area. Tornadoes that do form will likely move very quickly Today. Heed all warnings! (Source, NWS/Storm Prediction Center)
*Impressive looking storm on visible satellite imagery This Morning. The center of this storm was over Southern/Central South Dakota as we approach the Noon hour. (Source, unisys weather)
*Water vapor satellite loop from October 11, 2013. Awesome looking storm churning NNE into the Northern Plains. (Source, unisys weather)
Weather update as of 11:40 AM CDT:
Strong low pressure of 992mb was over South Central South Dakota with impressive 12-hour 500mb height falls of 120-210 meters covering the Northern Plains late This Morning per meso-analysis. Radar data shows areas of showers and isolated thunderstorms lifting north and northwest through parts of Western Minnesota and the Eastern Dakotas.
For the rest of Today and Tonight:
Powerful upper level trough/upper low and a surface low will remain over the Northern Plains with an occluded front/cold front lifting NNE into Minnesota beginning later Today. Ahead of this storm, expect a very strong SE low level jet of 40-60 knots with mid level winds out of the SSW at 50-70 knots and upper level winds of 70-90 knots.
Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms will develop to the west/southwest of the Northland thru Midday, this activity will then spread into Western/Southwest parts of the area mainly after 3 PM Today with precipitation reaching the Iron Range, Twin Ports and I35 corridor mainly after 5-6 PM. The threat for scattered rain will linger in all of the Northland until around Midnight Tonight or a little after.
A few of the thunderstorms could become strong or severe later This Afternoon and This Evening with high winds being the primary hazard here in the Northland. Winds at about 5,000 feet will be increasing to around 50-60 knots later Today, so convection that can develop will have the capability of tapping into these stronger winds aloft and transferring them down to the surface. Note: The greatest chance for stronger storms should remain along and southwest of a line from International Falls to Duluth to Siren later This Afternoon and This Evening.
*Today’s damaging wind probability forecast per NWS Storm Prediction Center)
-Stay weather aware Today and This Evening.
-Know the difference between a watch and warning. A watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms. A warning means that severe weather is occurring or is imminent.
*Future radar at 7 PM This Evening per 12z HIRES model.
*Future radar valid at 10 PM Tonight per 12z HIRES model. Note the lines of showers and storms affecting parts of Minnesota in the top image and bottom image.
*Upper Midwest radar loop ending a 11:28 AM Today. (Source, NWS Duluth, MN)
Tim
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