/Issued 3:55 PM CDT, Friday, October 11, 2013/
*Tornado watch continues in the red outlined area until 8 PM CDT Tonight. So far there’s been little to no severe weather inside the watch box, but don’t let your guard down. The potential is there for a few severe thunderstorms This Evening with damaging winds and a few tornadoes possible. (Source, NWS/Storm Prediction Center)
*The next storm to keep an eye on will be early next week as low pressure tracks out of the Rockies and into Iowa by Tuesday, October 15th. The high (H) to our north and low (L) to our south should lead to a period of gusty ENE winds in the Twin Ports from Monday into Tuesday with gusts over 30 mph possible. Rain is also expected early next week to the north of this system. (Source, Weather Prediction Center)
*7-day precipitation forecast valid through Friday, October 18, 2013. Widespread amounts of one half to 1″+ totals are expected in Minnesota and Wisconsin with much of that coming next week. (Source, Weather Prediction Center)
*No doubt about it October 2013 is off to an unusually warm start in the Twin Ports. Thru the 10th, the average monthly temperature was at 55.2 degrees or 7.8 degrees warmer than average. Note: There’s a much colder look to the long range computer models beginning later next week, so the current temperature surplus will more than likely drop by at least a couple of degrees if not by more by the end of the month. Will it be cold enough during the 2nd half of October to drop us below average for the month? Probably not, but you never know.
Today’s Weather Summary for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin
A very strong upper level low/trough and surface low continued to lift north-northeast through the Northern Plains This Afternoon. As of 3 PM the center of the low was in far Northern South Dakota with a pressure down to 992mb. An occluded front/cold front connected to the surface low was moving closer to Southwest Minnesota late This Afternoon. The Northland remained out ahead of this strong autumn storm Today with gusty southeast winds and another day with above average temperatures. Highs were in the 60s and 70s with 50s closer to Lake Superior. Those above mentioned SE winds were in the 10 to 25 mph range with higher gusts.
Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin
Short Term Forecast – Confidence: High.
Tonight (October 11)
Low pressure averaging 992mb is forecast to move from far Northern South Dakota to Southeast Manitoba by dawn. An occluded front/cold front trailing southeast of this low will sweep NE and through the Northland later Tonight. Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms will be found in our area Tonight with strong wind gusts, brief downpours, and occasional lightning being the main hazards from these storms. The greatest chance to see this activity will be generally west/southwest of a line from International Falls to Hibbing to Two Harbors to Shell Lake with a lesser chance for showers east of this line. Lows Tonight will be in the 40s and 50s. Winds will shift from the south/east to the southwest with the passage of the cold front later Tonight. Wind speeds will range from 10 to 25 mph with higher gusts possible.
*Tonight’s rainfall forecast per 18z high-res NAM. Very light amounts in Northwest Wisconsin and the Arrowhead of Minnesota with 0.10-0.50″ totals possible in North Central and Eastern Minnesota.
Saturday and Saturday Night (October 12)
Low pressure will be centered over Eastern Manitoba and Western Ontario through this period with high pressure across the Northern Plains. Gusty winds and a cooler airmass will sweep into the Upper Midwest on Saturday in wake of this autumnal storm. Partly sunny to mostly cloudy skies are expected Tomorrow with some light rain or showers possible at times. Partly to mostly cloudy skies for Saturday Night with some light showers possibly lingering into the Evening hours. Highs will be in the 40s and 50s with lows in the 30s to lower 40s. Winds will be out of the west/southwest at 10 to 25 mph with higher gusts possible.
Extended Forecast – Confidence: High.
Sunday through Tuesday (October 13-15)
Sunday is shaping up to be a nice fall day with less wind and seasonably cool temperatures, it also looks dry as high pressure passes through the region. Highs on Sunday will mainly be in the 50s with lows in the 30s and 40s. A new storm looks like it’ll affect the Northland early next week as low pressure heads out of the Rockies and into the North Central Plains. Rain is possible especially from Monday Night into Tuesday. Highs Monday will be in the 40s and 50s with lows in the 30s and 40s. Highs on Tuesday will mainly be in the 40s. Note: Gusty ENE winds are possible near Lake Superior early next week with possible gale force wind gusts developing especially from Monday Evening into Tuesday.
Long Range Forecast – Confidence: High.
Rain could linger next Wednesday (16th) as low pressure moves off to our east. A colder airmass looks to follow during the 17th-19th time frame, in fact there could be a few showers of either rain or snow late next week. Near to below average temperatures are forecast through this period.
5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR
.Tonight… Breezy. Scattered showers possible at times. Mostly cloudy. Low 45 to 50. Wind southeast at 10 to 20 mph becoming southwest toward dawn. Higher wind gusts are possible.
.Saturday… Breezy. Considerable cloudiness. Light rain showers possible during the Afternoon. High 55 to 60. Wind southwest at 15 to 25 mph.
.Saturday Night… Mostly cloudy. Light rain showers possible early. Low 35 to 40. Wind west at 10 to 20 mph.
.Sunday… Partly cloudy. High 50 to 55.
.Sunday Night… Partly cloudy. Low 35 to 40.
.Monday… Increasing cloudiness. High 50 to 55.
.Monday Night… Breezy. Mostly cloudy. Rain possible. Low 40 to 45. Wind east at 15 to 25 mph.
.Tuesday… Breezy. Rain possible. High 45 to 48. Wind east at 15 to 25 mph.
Normal temperatures for Today
Sunrise Saturday: 7:23 AM CDT
Sunset Saturday: 6:27 PM CDT