/Issued 6:56 PM CDT, Saturday, October 12, 2013/
*Widespread rainfall amounts ranging from 0.50″-2.00″ are possible in the Northland from Monday Afternoon into Tuesday Night. Here’s what the computer models are showing in terms of rainfall potential.
…Storm potential Monday Afternoon through Tuesday…
…A true taste of fall weather by late next week/next weekend…
Rainfall report for October 11-12, 2013 (ending around 6 AM on the 12th)
Source: National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota
Brainerd, MN: 0.55″
Hibbing, MN: 0.31″
7 NW of Brainerd, MN: 0.35″
12 N of Isle, MN: 0.56″
3 NE of Nisswa, MN: 0.32″
3 E of Wright, MN: 0.22″
Cook, MN: 0.18″
3 E of Orr, MN: 0.16″
Today’s Weather Summary for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin
Deep low pressure has moved into Northern Ontario early This Evening with a potent upper trough with 12-hour height falls of up to 90 meters cutting through the Upper Midwest and Western Great Lakes. A mild early Morning gave way to falling temperatures as gusty southwest winds at 10 to 25 mph with higher gusts help usher in a cooler more seasonable airmass Today with early Morning temperatures in the 60s to around 70 degrees which fell into the 40s and 50s during the day. Mostly cloudy skies covered most of the area Today with some light showers and drizzle occurring from time to time.
Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin
Short Term Forecast – Confidence: High.
Tonight (October 12)
High pressure to our west-southwest and low pressure off to our north will continue to result in a cold air advection regime across the Northland Tonight under partly to mostly cloudy skies. Lingering drizzle or light rain showers should dissipate before Midnight. Lows will be in the 30s to lower 40s, but some 20s are possible if skies clear out quick enough. West winds are expected at 10 to 20 mph.
Sunday and Sunday Night (October 13)
High pressure will pass through the Upper Midwest during this period which will keep the Northland dry under partly cloudy skies. Highs will be mainly in the 50s with lows in the 30s and 40s. West winds Tomorrow will turn to the east Tomorrow Night at 5 to 15 mph.
Extended Forecast – Confidence: High.
Monday through Wednesday (October 14-16)
The active October continues as we see another storm system track northeast out of Colorado and into Southern Minnesota/Northern Iowa early next week. This system will then pull off to our east on Wednesday.
Rain will overspread the Northland from SW-NE from Monday Afternoon into Monday Night. Tuesday looks rainy, and then the rain should move out of here or at least taper off to scattered showers from Tuesday Night into Wednesday.
High temperatures will be in the 40s and 50s on Monday and Wednesday and mainly in the 40s on Tuesday. Lows Monday Night and Tuesday Night will be in the 30s and 40s. Note: Looks like another round of gusty ENE winds will affect areas near Lake Superior beginning Monday Afternoon and continuing into Tuesday, wind gusts of 20 to 30 mph are possible during that time.
*Storm track forecast per Weather Prediction Center. Surface low over Northeast Colorado at 7 AM Monday moves into extreme Southeast South Dakota by 7 AM Tuesday. After Tuesday AM, the low should continue on it’s ENE track, staying south of the Northland.
Long Range Forecast – Confidence: High.
If you’re ready for cold temperatures and possibly even the season’s first snow flurries, well then I have good news. The long range computer models remain consistent in showing an upper level trough digging south out of Canada and into the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes with a pretty cold airmass moving into the Northland from the 17th-20th with the coldest days looking like they would be next Friday (18th) and Saturday (19th) of course that is subject to change. Daytime highs could hold in the 30s and lower 40s on the coldest days per model guidance. Also with the upper trough overhead, there will be the potential for a few showers of rain or snow from Thursday-Saturday (17th-19th) Too early to say if any one will see a light accumulation of snow, but it’s not out of the question that some of us see a light dusting of snow on the ground later next week. Below average temperatures are forecast with temperatures trending back toward average levels toward the 20th-22nd time frame.
*850mb temperature forecast valid for next Saturday, October 19, 2013. Widespread dark blues and purples showing up (-6 to -10C) If this verifies then it will be the coldest airmass we’ve seen so far this fall season. Not sure how long this cold air will stick around though, will it have staying power, or will it just be a 1-2 day occurrence? Stay tuned…
5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR
.Tonight… Breezy. Patchy drizzle or light rain showers ending before Midnight. Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 35 to 40. Wind west at 10 to 20 mph.
.Sunday… Partly cloudy. Less wind compared to previous days. High 51 to 56. Wind west at 10 to 15 mph.
.Sunday Night… Partly cloudy. Low 35 to 40. Wind southwest around 10 mph.
.Monday… Increasing cloudiness. High 47 to 52.
.Monday Night… Breezy. Occasional rain. Low 40 to 45. Wind east at 15 to 25 mph.
.Tuesday… Breezy. Rain. High 45 to 48. Wind east to northeast at 15 to 25 mph.
.Tuesday Night… Occasional rain. Low 35 to 40.
.Wednesday… Considerable cloudiness. High 47 to 52.
Normal temperatures for Tomorrow
Sunrise Sunday: 7:24 AM CDT
Sunset Sunday: 6:25 PM CDT