/Issued 4:22 PM CDT, Monday, October 14, 2013/
*Here’s the next storm that’ll give the Northland more rain during the next 24 hours. A strong upper trough over the Rockies and Western High Plains late This Afternoon with a deepening surface low churning NE out of Central Nebraska. (Source, unisys weather)
*Upper level wind map from 12z (7 AM) October 14, 2013. “U” shape configuration over the Rockies – that’s the upper trough that will kick out into the Upper Midwest on Tuesday. Strong winds of 80-100 knots on the S/SE side of this trough which adds energy to the storm.
Today’s Weather Summary for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin
Low pressure of 1004mb stretched from Southern South Dakota to South Central Nebraska late This Afternoon with high pressure of 1028mb over the Eastern Great Lakes. Clouds thickened up throughout the day ahead of that Plains storm with some rain overspreading North Central and Eastern sections of Minnesota while it stayed mostly dry in Northwest Wisconsin. Highs Today were in the 40s and 50s with easterly winds at 5 to 15 mph.
Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin
Short Term Forecast – Confidence: High.
Tonight through Tuesday Night (October 14-15)
Another fall storm will be affecting the Northland through this period with widespread rain and gusty onshore winds near Lake Superior. Low pressure will move out of Nebraska/Southern South Dakota Tonight and is forecast to move through Southern Minnesota on Tuesday and will move into Northeast Wisconsin by Tuesday Night.
Rain will continue to increase in both coverage and intensity from southwest-northeast Tonight. Tuesday looks rainy and there might even be a few thunderstorms in Northwest Wisconsin, especially around Hayward, Hurley, Park Falls, and Ogema. Rain looks like it will taper off to scattered showers Tomorrow Night as the area of low pressure exits off to the east.
Lows Tonight and highs Tomorrow will be in the 40s with a few 50s possible in Southeast portions of Northwest Wisconsin. Lows Tuesday Night will be in the 30s and 40s. East or northeast winds will turn northerly by Tomorrow Night. Wind speeds will range from 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 30 mph developing near Lake Superior.
*Total rainfall forecast valid thru Tuesday Night. Widespread half to 1.50″ of rain is forecast to fall in NE Minnesota and NW Wisconsin from Tonight through Tuesday with locally higher amounts possible. (Source, 18z High-Res NAM/WRF model)
Extended Forecast – Confidence: High.
Wednesday through Friday (October 16-18)
Dry weather is expected to return on Wednesday with highs in the 40s and 50s with lows in the 30s and 40s. A cold front will move SE and through the area on Thursday, this front could bring a few showers to the region. Spotty showers of either rain, ice pellets, or snow are possible on Friday as a colder airmass moves into the Upper Midwest. Highs on Thursday will be in the 40s and 50s with lows in the 30s and 40s. May not see much recovery to the temperatures on Friday with highs running in the 30s and 40s the way it looks now.
Long Range Forecast – Confidence: High.
Looks like the colder weather pattern will have some staying power with temperatures generally below average through this period. An occasional disturbance or clipper like system could also affect the Northland with some showers of snow or rain at times. Doesn’t look like will be seeing any accumulating snow, but of course things could change so stay tuned.
*The next 3 images is the 500mb forecast per Weather Prediction Center. The flow aloft turns more to the northwest, possibly even out of the north-northwest. This will be a cooler weather pattern for the Upper Midwest as an early season Polar Vortex (Green “L” on the map) passes through Northern Canada.
Thursday, October 17, 2013:
*Saturday, October 19, 2013:
*Monday, October 21, 2013:
5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR
.Tonight… Occasional rain. Becoming breezy. Low 42 to 45. Wind east at 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 30 mph.
.Tuesday… Rain. Breezy. High 45 to 48. Wind east to northeast at 15 to 25 mph with gusts to 30 mph.
.Tuesday Night… Rain tapering off to scattered showers. Low 35 to 40. Wind north at 10 to 20 mph.
.Wednesday… Partly sunny. High 47 to 52.
.Wednesday Night… Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 35 to 40.
.Thursday… A few rain showers possible. High 45 to 50.
.Thursday Night… Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 30 to 35.
.Friday… Mostly cloudy. Rain, sleet, or snow showers possible. High 40 to 45.
Normal temperatures for Today
Sunrise Tuesday: 7:27 AM CDT
Sunset Tuesday: 6:21 PM CDT