/Issued 11:36 AM CDT, Friday, October 18, 2013/
Here’s 1 model’s take on where the rain/snow line will be Sunday Afternoon.
Interesting to see that this model brings snow right up to the shores of Lake Superior with rain off-shore.
(Source, 12z High-Res NAM/WRF model)
…Snow on the way…
*Morning model data strongly suggests that there will be accumulating snow over portions of the Northland on Sunday.
*An Alberta Clipper is forecast to move southeast out Northwest Canada and is expected to pass through either Southern or Central Minnesota on Sunday before it exits to our south/east Sunday Night.
*With the low passing south of the Northland this will keep us on the north side/colder side of this storm. Thickness values and 850mb temperatures are low enough that would keep precipitation in the form of snow in NE Minnesota and NW Wisconsin on Sunday. The surface temperatures could warm just enough, however, to produce more of a snow/rain mix especially if precipitation rates aren’t very heavy.
*I’m still not sold that will see much snow closer to Lake Superior as temperatures might be warm enough to produce more of a chilly rain rather than snow, but the computer models produce snow even near Lake Superior on Sunday so this will be something to watch.
*Snowfall accumulations of 1-3″ is becoming more and more likely on Sunday especially along and south of a line from Bemidji to Two Harbors. Snow is most likely to accumulate on grassy surfaces and higher elevated surfaces. Note: I’m not real sure how well the snow will stick to roads/sidewalks with it being only mid-October, I guess that is also a possibility if we were to see heavier bursts of snow.
*Stay tuned for more updates on this potential 1st accumulating snowfall event of the fall season that could affect parts of the Northland on Sunday.
Blue colors on this map indicate a 40-60% chance for at least 1″ of snow from 7 AM Sunday to 7 AM Monday. (Source, Weather Prediction Center)