/Issued 3:43 PM CDT, Friday, October 18, 2013/
-There’s a slight risk (blue area on the map) for snowfall totals to reach or exceed 4″ on Sunday in North Central Minnesota. (Source, Weather Prediction Center) 4″ could be a stretch with this system, but 1-3″ of accumulation is certainly possible.
Today’s Weather Summary for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin
An upper level trough continues to dig south into the Upper Midwest Today with a secondary cold front heading southeast out of Northwest Minnesota. Colder air aloft combined with modest warming near the surface has led to the development of scattered showers This Afternoon with some sleet also occurring in some locations due to the colder air that has moved in Today. High temperatures were in the 40s to around 50 degrees with west winds at 5 to 15 mph.
Rainfall report for October 17-18 – ending around 6 AM Today
Source: National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota
Duluth, MN: 0.28″
International Falls, MN: 0.17″
Brainerd, MN: 0.14″
Grand Marais, MN: 0.21″
Ashland, WI: 0.52″
Hayward, WI: 0.16″
3 E of Wright, MN: 0.27″
Duluth, MN (NWS) 0.31″
Embarrass, MN: 0.27″
Floodwood, MN: 0.24″
Grand Portage, MN: 0.20″
4 E of Island Lake, MN: 0.24″
2 S of Tower, MN: 0.17″
Finland, MN: 0.32″
3 S of Ashland, WI: 0.63″
Butternut, WI: 0.22″
Gurney, WI: 0.55″
Madeline Island, WI: 0.36″
Upson, WI: 0.36″
9 N of Bayfield, WI: 0.22″
Gordon, WI: 0.23″
Solon Springs, WI: 0.23″
Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin
Short Term Forecast – Confidence: High.
Tonight (October 18)
Partly to mostly cloudy skies are expected with scattered showers in the form of rain, sleet, and snow. Lows will be in the 30s to around 40 degrees with west or southwest winds at 10 to 20 mph.
Saturday and Saturday Night (October 19)
Scattered rain, sleet, and snow showers will continue on Saturday before coming to an end Saturday Night. An upper level trough and cold air aloft will be responsible in generating these spotty showers Tomorrow. Partly to mostly cloudy skies are on tap with highs in the 30s to lower 40s. Lows will be in the 20s and 30s. northwest or southwest winds are expected at 10 to 15 mph.
Extended Forecast – Confidence: High.
Sunday through Tuesday (October 20-22)
Low pressure is forecast to move southeast out of Northwest Canada and should reach Eastern North Dakota by Sunday Morning. After that, the low is forecast to move through Southern or Central Minnesota Sunday Afternoon and into Central Wisconsin by Sunday Night. By Monday this low moves into Eastern Lake Superior.
Precipitation in the form of snow or rain will move into the Northland on Sunday with lingering snow showers and flurries continuing Sunday Night into Monday with flurries still possible on Tuesday. Note: The heaviest precipitation is forecast to fall Sunday Afternoon/Evening the way it looks now.
Critical thickness values and H85 temperatures support frozen precipitation, but there may be just enough warming that occurs near the surface to cause a rain/snow mix especially in areas that see lighter precipitation rates. Locations that get heavier precipitation would likely stay as snow.
Closer to Lake Superior I’m still leaning more toward rain rather than snow with this event on Sunday. These early season snows are usually elevation events meaning if you live below the hill (lower elevation) you’ll probably end up with more rain or a rain/snow mix on Sunday. If you’re on top of the hill, including the Hermantown, Proctor, Pike Lake areas I think snow will be the main P-type on Sunday.
Stay tuned to later updates as additional model data comes in during the next 24 hours which will help to fine tune things just a bit.
The big story outside of the snow on Sunday will be the temperatures as unseasonably cold air settles into the Upper Midwest. High temperatures will only be in the 30s to around 40 degrees from Sunday through Tuesday with lows Sunday Night and Monday Night in the 20s to lower 30s.
Long Range Forecast – Confidence: High.
Below average temperatures are forecast through this period as we maintain a chilly north or northwest flow through the next week. No big precipitation events are expected, but there could be a few snow or rain showers from time to time as disturbances drop south out of Canada.
Note: The potential also exists for periods of lake effect snow or rain from next Monday-Friday along the South Shore of Lake Superior (Favored NW flow areas) And also on some of the inland lakes, most notably off Mille Lacs, Leech Lake, Winni, and the Upper and Lower Red Lake, in fact there could be some decent snow accumulations off the inland lakes at times next week.
5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR
.Tonight… Spotty rain or sleet showers mainly This Evening. Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 30 to 35. Wind west to southwest at 10 to 15 mph.
.Saturday… Mostly cloudy. Rain, sleet, or snow showers possible at times. High 40 to 45. Wind west to southwest at 10 to 15 mph.
.Saturday Night… Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 30 to 35. Wind northwest at 5 to 15 mph.
.Sunday… Rain or snow developing especially during the Afternoon. Mostly cloudy. High 35 to 40.
.Sunday Night… Rain or snow early. Total snowfall accumulations of 1-3″ possible especially over the hill. Little or no snow accumulation expected closer to Lake Superior. Flurries or snow showers possible late. Mostly cloudy. Low 28 to 33.
.Monday… Snow showers or flurries at times. Mostly cloudy. High 35 to 40.
.Monday… Snow showers or flurries possible mainly during the Evening. Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 23 to 28.
.Tuesday… Partly sunny. High 35 to 40.
Normal temperatures for Today
Sunrise Saturday: 7:32 AM CDT
Sunset Saturday: 6:14 PM CDT