/Issued 3:45 PM CDT, Saturday, October 19, 2013/
*Winter Weather Advisory (purple shaded area) from late Tonight into early Sunday Afternoon for parts of Northeast North Dakota and West Central Minnesota. 1-4″+ of snow could accumulate in the advisory area by Sunday Afternoon. Note: No winter weather headlines in effect in NE Minnesota or NW Wisconsin. (Source, NWS hazards map)
Today’s Weather Summary for NE Minnesota and NW Wisconsin
A chilly mid-October day with a mixture of clouds/sunshine. An upper level trough and a pocket of cold temperatures aloft remained over the region Today and helped to kick off more pop-corn like showers of rain, sleet, and snow. High temperatures were generally in the lower to middle 40s and winds were out of the west or northwest at 10 to around 20 mph.
Forecast Discussion for NE Minnesota and NW Wisconsin
Short Term Forecast – Confidence: High.
Tonight (October 19)
Partly to mostly cloudy skies will occur Tonight with spotty rain, sleet, or snow showers ending during the Evening. Most of the rest of the night should be dry, although some snow or rain could start to affect the Western part of the area toward dawn, mainly west of a line from Bigfork to Brainerd. Lows Tonight will be in the 20s and 30s. Winds will shift from the north/west to the south/east later in the night at 5 to 15 mph.
Sunday and Sunday Night (October 20)
Low pressure is forecast to move from Southeast North Dakota/Northeast South Dakota Sunday Morning to Eastern Wisconsin by late Sunday Night. This system looks like it’ll bring a round of rain and snow to the Northland during this period. Precipitation will overspread the area from west to east during the day Sunday and will taper off from west to east Sunday Night, although precipitation should linger through the night in Northeast Minnesota and Northern Wisconsin.
Critical thickness values and 850mb temperatures still look favorable for snow, but temperatures near the surface look slightly warmer than 24 hours ago, and this will likely lead to more of a rain/snow mix instead of an all snow event.
The area from Cass Lake, Brainerd, and Aitkin and southwest from there has the best chance to see all snow on Sunday with possible accumulations of 1-2″.
The rest of our area will likely see a chilly rain or a rain/snow mix with little to no accumulation of snow expected during the daylight hours.
By Sunday Night, surface temperatures should cool enough resulting in mostly flurries and snow showers with heavier snow showers possible in NE Minnesota and Northern Wisconsin with 1-2″ of accumulation possible in spots by dawn Monday.
Locations closer to Lake Superior can expect rain Sunday Afternoon into the early Evening hours with precipitation gradually mixing with and changing to snow showers and flurries Sunday Night. No snow accumulation is expected for areas near Lake Superior.
High temperatures Tomorrow will be in the 30s and 40s with lows in the 20s and 30s. Winds will shift around from the south, east and north on Sunday to the north/west Sunday Night at 10 to 25 mph.
-Area outlined in blue has a slight chance to pick up at least 4″ of snow on Sunday – ending at 7 PM. (Source, Weather Prediction Center)
-A low to moderate risk for at least 4″ of snow from Sunday Night into Monday in Northeast Minnesota and over parts of Northern Wisconsin. (Source, Weather Prediction Center)
Extended Forecast – Confidence: High.
Monday through Wednesday (October 21-23)
Cold temperatures will be the main weather story during this period. Daytime highs will only be in the 30s to lower 40s with nighttime lows Monday Night and Tuesday Night in the 20s to around 30 degrees with some teens possible as well. Looks like there will also be occasional snow showers and flurries from Monday through Wednesday over the Arrowhead of Minnesota and also along the South Shore of Lake Superior in Northwest Wisconsin. A couple inches of snow could accumulate in those aforementioned areas. The remainder of the Northland could see some flurries and snow showers from Monday into Tuesday AM with generally dry weather expected Tuesday PM into Wednesday.
Long Range Forecast – Confidence: High.
Below average temperatures are forecast through this period. A north/northwest upper level flow continues which will keep any large storm system away from our area, but we could be affected by weaker systems coming out of Canada which could lead to a few rain or snow showers from time to time.
5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR
.Tonight… Spotty rain or sleet showers early. Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 30 to 35. Wind west to northwest at 10 to 20 mph becoming southeast toward dawn.
.Sunday… Mostly cloudy. Some rain possible during the Afternoon. Rain could be mixed with snow over the hill. High 37 to 42. Wind east at 10 to 15 mph.
.Sunday Night… Mostly cloudy. Occasional rain or snow changing to snow showers and flurries during the night. Total snowfall accumulations of 1″ or less over the hill. Little to no snow accumulation near Lake Superior. Low 25 to 30. Wind northwest at 10 to 20 mph.
.Monday… Mostly cloudy. Snow showers and flurries at times. High 33 to 38.
.Monday Night… Mostly cloudy. Snow showers and flurries at times. Low 23 to 28.
.Tuesday… Partly sunny. High 35 to 40.
.Tuesday Night… Partly cloudy. Low 23 to 28.
.Wednesday… Partly cloudy. High 35 to 40.
Normal temperatures for Today
Sunrise Sunday: 7:34 AM CDT
Sunset Sunday: 6:12 PM CDT