/Issued 3:28 PM CDT, Tuesday, October 22, 2013/
*500mb map for next Monday Evening, October 28, 2013 per 12z GFS model. Mid/upper level trough digs into the Rockies early next week (‘U’ shape configuration on the map) Also looks like were dealing with a split flow meaning there’s 1 branch of the jet stream over Canada while the other one is over the Southern Rockies and Plains. Would need to see both branches phase in order to get a big storm next week. Lots of uncertainty at the moment with next week’s weather. Models usually handle split flows very poorly so I would expect model mayhem in coming days. (Source, unisys weather)
Today’s Weather Summary for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin
Unseasonably cold weather continued Today with daytime highs in the mid 30s to around 40 degrees. Lots of clouds in the area as well Today with scattered flurries and snow showers affecting some parts of the Northland. Winds Today were out of the northwest or north at 5 to 15 mph.
Weather Tidbits for Duluth, Minnesota (Airport location)
*High temperature of 35 degrees on October 21 was the coldest maximum temperature since April 19 (33 degrees)
*0.2″ of snow fell on October 21. This was the 1st measurable snow (0.1″ or greater) since April 23 (0.6″)
Lake effect snowfall totals from October 21, 2013
Source, National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota
3 W of Butternut, WI (Ashland County) 1.0″
2 N of Moquah, WI (Bayfield County) 3.0″
Upson, WI (Iron County) 2.7″
Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin
Short Term Forecast – Confidence: High.
Tonight through Wednesday Night (October 22-23)
An upper and surface area of low pressure will continue to spin around well northeast of the Upper Midwest. Weak disturbances dropping S/SE on the backside of this system will bring occasional snow flurries/snow showers to parts of the Northland during the next 24 hours. Some spots might pick up a dusting to 1″ of snow, but most of us will only see trace amounts. Otherwise expect partly to mostly cloudy skies through Wednesday Night. Low temperatures will be in the 20s and 30s with highs Tomorrow in the 30s. Northwest winds will continue at 5 to around 20 mph.
Extended Forecast – Confidence: High.
Thursday through Saturday (October 24-26)
Low pressure is forecast to remain north/east of the Upper Midwest Friday and Saturday with most of the precipitation associated with this system falling over Ontario. Smaller chances for rain or snow showers will be found in NE Minnesota and NW Wisconsin from Friday Night into Saturday. A few flurries are also possible from a separate disturbance on Thursday.
High temperatures will be in the 30s and 40s from Thursday through Saturday with lows Thursday Night and Friday Night in the 20s and 30s.
Long Range Forecast – Confidence: Low.
(October 27-November 1)
…Powerful storm possible next week…
The pattern next week favors the development of a significant storm, whether one develops or not is highly uncertain. That’s about all I can say at this point. The period to watch would be from October 28-31 and depending on the track and if this storm even develops will determine if the Northland will be affected or not. Stay tuned! Near to below average temperatures are forecast through this period.
5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR
.Tonight… Considerable cloudiness. Scattered flurries or snow showers possible. Low 27 to 32. Wind northwest at 10 to 15 mph.
.Wednesday… Partly to mostly cloudy. High 34 to 39. Wind northwest at 10 to 20 mph.
.Wednesday Night… Partly cloudy. Low 23 to 28. Wind northwest at 5 to 15 mph.
.Thursday… Partly sunny. High 35 to 40.
.Thursday Night… Partly cloudy. Low 23 to 28.
.Friday… Partly sunny. High 37 to 42.
.Friday Night… Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 27 to 32.
.Saturday… Partly sunny. High 38 to 43.
Normal temperatures for Today
Sunrise Wednesday: 7:38 AM CDT
Sunset Wednesday: 6:07 PM CDT