/Issued 3:41 PM CDT, Wednesday, October 23, 2013/
*Here’s the 12z WRF model out of Duluth for Tonight. Note the plumes of precip which will be in the form of snow taking on a NW-SE orientation. NW flow (cold air) going over the relatively milder waters of Lake Superior and some of the larger inland lakes which will likely generate some snow showers Tonight and Thursday AM. (Source, NWS Duluth, MN)
A snowy start to fall 2013 in parts of the Northern Rockies/Plains.
Source: The Weather Channel
Snowfall totals thru October 22, 2013:
Casper, Wyoming: 21.2″
Average to date: 6.6″
Rapid City, South Dakota: 19.6″
Average to date: 0.9″
Cheyenne, Wyoming: 10.0″
Average to date: 4.6″
September 2013 climate report
*Average temperature in the U.S.: 67.3 degrees which is 2.5 degrees above the 20th century average. 6th warmest September on record, and the warmest September since 2005.
*Top 10 warmest September in the following states: Idaho, Montana, Wyoming, Colorado, North Dakota, South Dakota, and Nebraska.
*3 states had their wettest September on record: Colorado, Oregon, and Washington.
*7 states had a top 10 wettest September on record: New Mexico, Nevada, Utah, Wyoming, Idaho, Montana, and North Dakota.
*Top 10 driest September on record in Delaware and Maryland.
*41.2% of the U.S. were in drought as of October 1, 2013; Down 8.9% since the beginning of September.
-September 2013 U.S. temperature ranks, legend on the bottom.
-September 2013 U.S. precipitation ranks, legend on the bottom.
Year to date climate report
*January-September U.S. average temperature: 55.9 degrees which is 0.8 degrees above the 20th century average. This was the 28th warmest January-September on record.
*Wettest January-September on record in Michigan with a precipitation total of 29.69″ which is 5.68″ above average. California had it’s driest January-September on record with just 5.72″ of precipitation which is 9.36″ below average.
January-September 2013 temperature ranks, legend on the bottom.
January-September 2013 precipitation ranks, legend on the bottom.
Weather Tidbits for Duluth, MN (Airport location)
-Low temperature of 25 degrees This Morning (October 23) and on October 22 is the coldest minimum temperature since April 24 (21 degrees)
-Today marks the 4th consecutive day with a high temperature staying in the 30s. Have to go back to April 17-21 (5 days in a row) to find a longer stretch than this current one.
Today’s Weather Summary for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin
Northwest flow continued Today with an upper level trough covering the Upper Midwest and an upper low over Eastern Canada. Some portions of the area did see a few peeks of sun Today, but overall it was another day filled with clouds. Scattered snow showers and flurries also occurred Today. Highs were in the 30s with northwest winds at 10 to 20 mph.
*500mb map for 12z (7 AM) Today, October 23, 2013. (Source, RAP Real-Time Weather)
Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin
Short Term Forecast – Confidence: High.
Tonight through Thursday Night (October 23-24)
High pressure stays put to our west/southwest with low pressure to our northeast. Chilly northwest flow prevails along with clouds and scattered flurries/snow showers through this period. Note: 1-2″+ of snow is possible Tonight and Thursday AM along the South Shore of Lake Superior in Northwest Wisconsin, and also near a few of the larger inland lakes in Northeast Minnesota. Lows Tonight and Tomorrow Night will be in the 20s to around 30 degrees with a few spots dropping into the teens. Highs Tomorrow will be in the 30s to around 40 degrees. Northwest winds are expected at 5 to 15 mph with higher gusts.
Extended Forecast – Confidence: High.
Friday through Sunday (October 25-27)
Low pressure tracks north/east of Minnesota from Friday into Saturday. A cold front attached to this low will push through the Northland Friday Night/early Saturday, a few flurries or sprinkles are possible over parts of our area as this front moves through. Sunday looks mainly dry. High temperatures during this period will be in the 30s and 40s with lows Friday Night mainly in the 30s. Lows Saturday Night will be in the 20s and 30s.
Long Range Forecast – Confidence: Low.
(October 28-November 2)
Near to below average temperatures are expected through this period. Rain or snow is also possible at times from the 28th-29th and also around the 31st-1st. Still way too early to tell if any of this precipitation will be significant, but the pattern for next week has to be watched closely as there is potential for a larger storm or two to spin-up over the Southern/Central Plains. Stay tuned.
See any comparisons in the upper level pattern from October 30, 1991 and October 31, 2013?
-These 4 images are from October 30, 1991. (Source, NARR model)
*Here’s the 500mb map valid for next Thursday, October 31, 2013 per 12z EURO model.
5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR
.Tonight… Mostly cloudy. Flurries possible at times. Low 23 to 28. Wind northwest at 10 to 20 mph.
.Thursday… Considerable cloudiness. Flurries possible at times. High 35 to 40. Wind northwest at 10 to 20 mph.
.Thursday Night… Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 23 to 28.
.Friday… Partly sunny. High 37 to 42.
.Friday Night… Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 27 to 32.
.Saturday… Mostly cloudy. High 38 to 43.
.Saturday Night… Partly cloudy. Low 23 to 28.
.Sunday… Partly cloudy. High 37 to 42.
Normal temperatures for Today
Sunrise Thursday: 7:39 AM CDT
Sunset Thursday: 6:05 PM CDT