/Issued 3:05 PM CDT, Thursday, October 24, 2013/
*Forecast map for next Friday Morning, November 1, 2013 per 12z EUROPEAN model. Deep 980mb low centered near Green Bay, Wisconsin. Strong winds and possible precip north/west of this system late next week. (Source, instantweathermaps.com)
*12z GFS model for next Friday Morning, November 1, 2013. A much broader/weaker surface low covering Iowa and Minnesota late next week. Note: Differences in the storm track/intensity will continue in the various long range computer models for at least the next 5 days. (Source, instantweathermaps.com)
The main message is that there could be a storm late next week that brings wind, rain, or snow to parts of Minnesota and Wisconsin.
Note: For the record, it seems that the GFS model has been doing better compared to the EUROPEAN model lately. Will it continue with next week’s storm? Time will tell.
Note: It finally happened! The high temperature made it out of the 30s Today, October 24, at Duluth, Minnesota. 1st time that’s happened since October 19. Baby steps!
*STORM POTENTIAL TOWARD HALLOWEEN*
Drought update as of October 22, 2013
Source: Climate Prediction Center
*64% of the state is Abnormally dry; Unchanged from last week.
*25% of the state is in Moderate drought; Down from 28% last week.
Note: 35% of Minnesota is free of drought; Same as last week.
*53% of the state is Abnormally dry; Unchanged from last week.
*26% of the state is in Moderate drought; Unchanged from last week.
*6% of the state is in Severe drought; Unchanged from last week.
Note: 46% of Wisconsin is free of drought; Same as last week.
Today’s Weather Summary for NE Minnesota and NW Wisconsin
Weather pattern remains the same. Upper low over Eastern Canada with high pressure covering the Northern/Central Plains. This keeps Minnesota in a chilly N/NW flow aloft. Highs Today were in the 30s to lower 40s. Plenty of clouds, some peeks of sun, and a few spotty showers of snow and rain also occurred Today. Note: Gile, Wisconsin (Iron County) picked up 5.2″ of lake effect snow last night and This Morning with a snow depth as of 10 AM Today of 7.0″ per NWS Duluth. Winds Today were out of the north or northwest at 10 to around 20 mph.
*500mb map at 12z/7 AM Today October 24, 2013. (Source, RAP Real-Time Weather)
Forecast Discussion for NE Minnesota and NW Wisconsin
Short Term Forecast – Confidence: High.
Tonight (October 24)
Spotty snow or rain showers should linger This Evening with mainly dry conditions expected Overnight. Partly to mostly cloudy skies are expected with lows mainly in the 20s to lower 30s, but a few spots could drop into the teens depending on sky conditions. Winds will shift from the NNW to the SW at 5 to 15 mph.
Friday and Friday Night (October 25)
A strong area of low pressure will pass north/northeast of Minnesota this period with a cold front attached to this low pushing SE and through the Northland Friday Night. Partly to mostly cloudy skies are forecast this period with a few rain or snow showers possible, mainly over Northern parts of Minnesota and into the Arrowhead, however, more significant precipitation will stay over Ontario. Highs will be in the 40s with a few locations possibly climbing into the lower 50s – especially in Western/Southwest parts of the area. Lows Tomorrow Night will be in the 30s. Southwest winds on Friday will become northwest Friday Night, wind speeds will vary from 10 to 25 mph.
Extended Forecast – Confidence: High.
Saturday through Monday (October 26-28)
Low pressure will be off to our east on Saturday with gusty winds and cooler temperatures found over the Northland behind this system. A few flurries or sprinkles are possible as well. Sunday and Monday look mainly dry at this time despite a southward moving cold front, any precipitation that develops with this boundary should remain off to our south the way it looks now. High temperatures will be in the 30s and 40s from Saturday through Monday with lows Saturday Night in the 20s and 30s. Lows Sunday Night will be in the 20s to around 30 degrees with some teens possible over Northern Minnesota.
Long Range Forecast – Confidence: Low.
(October 29-November 3)
Dry weather is forecast next Tuesday/Wednesday (29th-30th) Storm potential continues then from Halloween (31st) through Saturday (November 2nd) Low pressure is expected to develop over the Southern/Central Plains by the middle of next week. This system may strengthen as it moves over or toward the Great Lakes region late next week. Precipitation is possible over NE Minnesota and NW Wisconsin late next week depending on the storm track. Whether or not the precipitation falls as rain or snow depends on the temperature, but at the moment it looks more like a rain or mixed precipitation event vs. all snow. Stay tuned! Below average temperatures are forecast through this period.
5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR
.Tonight… Spotty snow or rain showers early. Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 23 to 28. Wind northwest at 10 to 20 mph.
.Friday… Partly sunny. Breezy. High 44 to 49. Wind southwest at 15 to 25 mph.
.Friday Night… Mostly cloudy. Breezy. Low 30 to 35. Wind becoming northwest at 15 to 25 mph.
.Saturday… Considerable cloudiness. High 38 to 43.
.Saturday Night… Partly cloudy. Low 23 to 28.
.Sunday… Partly sunny. High 40 to 45.
.Sunday Night… Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 25 to 30.
.Monday… Partly sunny. High 35 to 40.
Normal temperatures for Today
Sunrise Friday: 7:41 AM CDT
Sunset Friday: 6:03 PM CDT