/Issued 3:52 PM CDT, Friday, October 25, 2013/
*A much weaker storm (996mb) is now being shown in Today’s 12z run of the EUROPEAN model. Also the ECMWF has shifted the storm track much farther to the west, bringing it into Western Minnesota Thursday Morning (October 31) Remember yesterday the EURO had a 980mb low near Green Bay, Wisconsin. Model mayhem at it’s finest. Expect that to continue the next few days.
*GFS model for 7 AM Thursday, October 31, 2013. Low pressure is farther SE compared to the EURO. GFS has the low over far Northeast Iowa at 7 AM Halloween Morning.
-Either way you slice it, should this storm hit the Northland it’s looking more like a rain event rather than a snow event. Stay tuned!
Today’s Weather Summary for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin
Gusty southwest winds and milder temperatures in the Northland Today as a strong area of low pressure averaging 1002mb stays off to our north over Western Ontario. High temperatures were in the 40s with even a few 50s showing up along and west of a line from about International Falls to Hinckley. Skies varied between mostly cloudy and mostly sunny Today and winds were on the brisk side ranging from 10 to 25 mph with gusts of 30 to 40 mph.
*Upper level analysis from 12z – 7 AM Today, October 25, 2013. (Source, RAP Real-Time weather)
Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin
Short Term Forecast – Confidence: High.
Tonight (October 25)
Deep low pressure will remain north/east of the Northland as it reaches the East shores of Lake Superior by daybreak. A cold front attached to this low will sweep southeast and through the area Tonight. Strong warm air advection ahead of this system will be replaced by strong cold air advection Overnight. Impressive height falls of 60-150 meters will also spread into the Upper Midwest during the night once the low gets NE of our area. Partly to mostly cloudy skies are forecast with scattered showers which will turn to flurries and snow showers Overnight. Lows will mainly be in the 30s with southwest winds becoming northwest at 15 to 25 mph with gusts to 40 mph.
Saturday and Saturday Night (October 26)
It’ll be cooler Tomorrow by some 5-10 degrees so look for daytime highs to be in the 30s to lower 40s with lows Tomorrow Night in the 20s and 30s. Partly to mostly cloudy skies are expected this period with flurries or snow showers possible Tomorrow Morning, otherwise with high pressure building into the Upper Midwest this period looks generally dry. Winds will be out of the northwest at 10 to 25 mph Tomorrow, turning more to the west at 5 to 15 mph Tomorrow Night.
Extended Forecast – Confidence: High.
Sunday through Tuesday (October 27-29)
Another cold front is forecast to move south and through the Northland on Sunday. A few flurries or snow showers are possible on Sunday in Northern Minnesota with dry weather elsewhere. Strong high pressure builds in from the NW from Sunday Night into Tuesday with cool temperatures, but with mainly dry conditions. High temperatures will range from the 30s in Northern Minnesota with 40s and a few 50s in Southern parts of the area on Sunday. Highs on Monday and Tuesday will be in the 30s to around 40 degrees. Lows Sunday Night and Monday Night will range from the teens and 20s in Northern Minnesota with 20s and 30s in Eastern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin.
Note: There is a small chance for some lake effect drizzle, snow, or rain showers beginning Sunday Night and lasting into Monday along the North Shore and South Shore of Lake Superior including in the Twin Ports as winds turn out of the ENE. 850mb temperatures are expected to fall to around -8C with water temperatures still in the 40s to around 50F, so there should be enough of a temperature difference to generate some light lake effect precipitation around Lake Superior from Sunday Night into Monday. Right now this doesn’t look like a major lake effect event with just trace amounts of snow/drizzle expected.
Long Range Forecast – Confidence: Low.
(October 30-November 4)
Still seeing wide differences in the computer models Today in the storm track and timing in regards to the ‘potential’ storm around Halloween. Note: One big change has been with the 12z EUROPEAN which now has a much weaker system compared to the 980mb beast they were showing 24 hours ago. Today’s EURO is more in line with the GFS.
-The track of the storm continues to be highly uncertain. EURO is the furthest northwest, taking the low into Western Minnesota on Thursday. GFS is farther southeast in Eastern Iowa. For what it’s worth the 12z CANADIAN model shows no storm affecting the Northland. This model keeps it well to our south/east.
-I’m pretty sure (knock on wood) that if this storm does affect us it looks warm enough that the precipitation would fall as rain. Timing at the moment looks to be Wednesday Evening into Thursday Night (October 30-31)
Turns cooler then from the 1st-4th of November but no big storms are showing up after Halloween.
5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR
.Tonight… Windy. Considerable cloudiness. A few sprinkles possible This Evening and sprinkles or flurries after Midnight. Low 30 to 35. Wind southwest at 15 to 25 mph becoming northwest. Wind gusts of 30 to 40 mph are possible.
.Saturday… Breezy. Considerable cloudiness. Flurries possible during the Morning. High 38 to 43. Wind northwest at 15 to 25 mph.
.Saturday Night… Partly cloudy. Low 26 to 31. Wind northwest at 10 to 20 mph becoming west to southwest.
.Sunday… Partly to mostly cloudy. High 40 to 45.
.Sunday Night… Mostly cloudy. Scattered snow showers, flurries, or drizzle possible. Low 30 to 35.
.Monday… Mostly cloudy. Scattered snow showers, flurries, or drizzle possible. High 35 to 38.
.Monday Night… Partly to mostly cloudy. Flurries possible. Low 23 to 28.
.Tuesday… Partly to mostly cloudy. High 35 to 40.
Normal temperatures for Today
Sunrise Saturday: 7:43 AM CDT
Sunset Saturday: 6:02 PM CDT