/Issued 4:40 PM CDT, Saturday, October 26, 2013/
-Lots of energy moving into the Western U.S./Rockies early this week. This bundle of energy looks like it’ll move out into the Plains and possibly into the Great Lakes during the Wednesday-Friday time frame (Oct. 30-Nov. 1) Net result could be a fairly strong storm, but it does look warm enough for mostly rain, should this storm affect the Northland.
(Source, 18z NAM/WRF model. 250mb potential vorticity forecast for 1 AM Wednesday Morning, October 30, 2013)
*Very strong upper level winds approaching 120 knots over the Southwest U.S. or on the south/southeast side of the upper low over Utah late Tuesday Night. Again lots of energy! (Source, 18z NAM/WRF model)
Weather Tidbits for Duluth, Minnesota (Airport location)
*High temperature of 50F on October 25 was the 1st time since October 18 with a high temperature of at least 50 degrees.
*3.72″ of precipitation has fallen thru the 25th of October. This is 1.33″ above average.
*4.98″ of precipitation since September 1 which is 1.52″ below average.
*26.57″ of precipitation since January 1 which is 0.63″ below average.
*We have a snowfall deficit of 1.2″ for October and 1.3″ since July 1. Total snowfall for October and since July 1 stands at 0.2″.
Today’s Weather Summary for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin
Strong low pressure of 1000mb was centered along the Ontario/Quebec border as of 4 PM with high pressure of 1022mb to our southwest. North-northwest flow was occurring across the area Today between the low to our east and high to our southwest. A chillier airmass moved back into the region Today with 850mb temperatures of around -6C late This Afternoon. High temperatures ranged from the mid 30s to low 40s which is 5 to around 10 degrees colder than normal for this time of year. Lots of clouds in the Northland Today and scattered rain/snow showers lingered a little longer than expected. Winds were out of the northwest at 10 to around 25 mph.
Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin
Short Term Forecast – Confidence: High.
Tonight (October 26)
High pressure will pass through the Upper Midwest Tonight with a new low heading toward Minnesota by daybreak. Partly to mostly cloudy skies are forecast Tonight with lows in the 20s and 30s. Winds will shift from the NW to the SW at 5 to 15 mph.
Sunday and Sunday Night (October 27)
An area of low pressure will move E/SE through the Upper Midwest on Sunday while a cold front drops south and through the Northland before Sunday Evening. A brief warm-up will occur in most areas on Sunday with highs in the 40s to lower 50s, but far Northern Minnesota and Arrowhead will remain around 40 degrees. Much colder air moves in Tomorrow Night with lows in the teens and 20s with a few 30s in Northwest Wisconsin. Partly to mostly cloudy skies are forecast during this period. A few rain or snow showers are possible on Sunday in far Northern Minnesota. Flurries or patchy drizzle is possible Sunday Night especially near Lake Superior. Winds will shift from the southwest to the north/east at 5 to 15 mph with higher gusts developing Sunday Night near Lake Superior.
Extended Forecast – Confidence: High.
Monday through Wednesday (October 28-30)
Strong high pressure builds into the Northland on Monday and Tuesday which should keep the area dry but on the cool side with highs in the 30s on Monday and in the 30s and lower 40s on Tuesday. Lows Monday Night and Tuesday Night will be in the 20s to lower 30s with some teens possible across Northern Minnesota. On Wednesday, a deep upper level trough will move out of the Rockies and into the Plains setting up a SW flow aloft across the Upper Midwest. Could see some rain move into the Northland by Wednesday Night as low pressure approaches from the SW. Highs on Wednesday will be in the 40s.
Long Range Forecast – Confidence: Medium.
(October 31-November 5)
The computer models are starting to come into slightly better agreement in the track, strength, and timing of the storm on Halloween. The GFS model remains the farthest SE with the low while the EUROPEAN and CANADIAN are farther NW. Will likely see some more changes to the track of this potential storm in coming days. Stay tuned!
At the moment it looks like there could be some rain in the Northland on Thursday (31st) with possible snow flurries from November 1-3. Near to below average temperatures are expected through this period.
*12z GFS model valid for 7 AM Thursday, October 31, 2013. Low pressure is somewhere in Southwestern Wisconsin per GFS model.
*12z EUROPEAN model valid for 7 AM Thursday, October 31, 2013. Low pressure is farther NW, generally over Northern/Eastern Minnesota.
(Map source, College of Dupage site)
5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR
.Tonight… Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 28 to 33. Wind northwest at 10 to 15 mph, becoming southwest after Midnight.
.Sunday… Partly to mostly cloudy. High 47 to 52. Wind west to southwest at 10 to 20 mph becoming north later in the Afternoon.
.Sunday Night… Considerable cloudiness. Flurries or patchy drizzle possible. Low 25 to 30. Wind north to northeast at 10 to 20 mph.
.Monday… Partly to mostly cloudy. Flurries possible. High 33 to 38.
.Monday Night… Partly cloudy. Low 20 to 25.
.Tuesday… Partly sunny. High 35 to 40.
.Tuesday Night… Partly cloudy. Low 25 to 30.
.Wednesday… Mostly cloudy. High 40 to 45.
Normal temperatures for Today
Sunrise Sunday: 7:44 AM CDT
Sunset Sunday: 6:00 PM CDT