/Issued 4:15 PM CDT, Thursday, October 31, 2013/
*A monster storm will unleash a ton of wind late Tonight and Friday over the Eastern Great Lakes, parts of Southeast Canada, and Northeast U.S. Wind gusts of 70-90 km/h translates to 40-55mph winds with gusts of 75mph possible. Note: These our tropical, and even hurricane force wind gusts that are expected to develop later Tonight. (Source, Twitter @weathernetwork)
*Area outlined in light blue on the map could experience strong damaging wind gusts Tonight and Friday. 850mb (5000 feet) winds of 50-70 knots are possible per 18z NAM/WRF model, some of this will likely mix down to the surface. (Source, college of dupage website)
Weather Tidbits for Duluth, Minnesota (Airport location)
-Going into this final day of October we had a temperature surplus of 1.7 degrees. This guarantees that October will finish with a temperature that’s above the monthly average. Note: This will be the 5th consecutive month (June-October) with an above average monthly temperature.
-October will also be the 1st month since June with above average precipitation.
Today’s Weather Summary for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin
Extensive cloudiness along with fog and drizzle highlighted Halloween 2013. High temperatures were in the upper 30s and 40s with lower 50s at Phillips, Wisconsin. Winds were out of the north or northwest at 5 to 15 mph.
-Water vapor satellite imagery from 3:30 PM Today. Black line shows the trough axis late This Afternoon. Purple lines represent the very moist/mild air east of the mid/upper level trough. (Source, unisys weather)
Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin
Short Term Forecast – Confidence: High.
Tonight (October 31)
Not much will change in our weather Tonight as skies remain overcast with areas of drizzle. Fog will also continue especially before Midnight. Lows will be in the 30s to around 40 degrees with northwest winds at 5 to 15 mph. Note: Low pressure of 992mb which was over far Southeast Wisconsin late This Afternoon will deepen explosively during the night with pressures falling to around 972mb by daybreak as the low moves over Lake Huron. Powerful winds and rain associated with this storm will remain well east of the Northland Tonight.
-RAP model analysis from 18z/1 PM Today. 996mb low over Southern/Central Wisconsin.
-Surface map forecast at 7 AM Friday. Powerhouse low just north/northeast of Lake Huron, note the pressure drop from 996mb at 1 PM Today to 972mb at 7 AM Friday. Very impressive! (Source, both images via college of dupage website)
Friday and Friday Night (November 1)
A powerful area of low pressure will move from Lake Huron to Northern Quebec during this period. A northwest flow will be found behind this storm over the Upper Midwest with an upper level disturbance/trough moving SE into the region. This weak feature could trigger a few showers at times, otherwise expect mostly cloudy skies to continue. Highs will mainly be in the 40s with lows in the 20s and 30s. Northwest winds are expected at 10 to 20 mph.
Extended Forecast – Confidence: High.
Saturday through Monday (November 2-4)
Spotty rain or snow showers are possible in our area on Saturday. Sunday looks like the nicer day of the weekend, in fact we may actually get to see the sun. The next system approaches the Upper Midwest on Monday with the possibility for some rain showers at that time.
High temperatures on Saturday will be in the 30s and 40s. Highs on Sunday will be in the 40s to around 50 degrees in Western/Southern areas to the 30s and 40s along the North Shore and Arrowhead. Highs on Monday will be in the 40s. Lows Saturday Night will be in the 20s and 30s. Lows Sunday Night will be in the 30s and 40s.
Long Range Forecast – Confidence: Medium.
A deep upper level trough will be passing through the Plains and Upper Midwest next Tuesday/Wednesday (5th-6th) Along with this upper trough could be a deepening surface low that tracks N/NE out of the Southern/Central Plains. This system could bring some rain and possibly some snow to the Northland next Tuesday and Wednesday. Stay tuned. Another system could affect the area toward the 9th-10th with perhaps another round of rain or snow. Near average temperatures are expected during this period.
5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR
.Tonight… Foggy especially before Midnight. Drizzle and light rain showers possible. Low 34 to 39. Wind northwest at 5 to 15 mph.
.Friday… Considerable cloudiness. High 40 to 45. Wind northwest at 10 to 20 mph.
.Friday Night… Considerable cloudiness. Low 28 to 33. Wind northwest at 10 to 15 mph.
.Saturday… Mostly cloudy. High 37 to 42.
.Saturday Night… Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 25 to 30.
.Sunday… Partly cloudy. High 40 to 45.
.Sunday Night… Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 30 to 35.
.Monday… Mostly cloudy. Showers possible. High 40 to 45.
Normal temperatures for Today
Sunrise Friday: 7:51 AM CDT
Sunset Friday: 5:53 PM CDT