November 30, 2013 – Update on the December 2-4 winter weather event (LRC data included)

/Issued 12:05 PM CST, Saturday, November 30, 2013/

*Image below is what the 12z GFS model is showing in terms of snowfall accumulation for Monday-Wednesday.  More details below…

…Possible snow and or mixed precipitation event setting up for December 2-4…

-12z model data is in and it does support some wintry weather across the Northland.  The computer models are not in the best agreement though on the track and speed of this weather system, but a consensus between the GFS and NAM would be for most of the precipitation to take place from Monday Evening into early Wednesday, although the CANADIAN model would linger precipitation all the way through Thursday due to a different scenario shown compared to the NAM and GFS models.

-At this time I’m thinking much of Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin could pick up 4″+ of snow with 6″+ of accumulation most likely along the North Shore of Lake Superior where easterly winds result in some lake enhanced snowfall next Tuesday.  Note:  The snowfall totals I mentioned in this post are very preliminary and could easily increase or decrease during the next few days.

-The possibility also exists for a wintry mix of precipitation on Tuesday, mainly over East Central Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin, although the amount of ice that could accumulate (if freezing rain does fall) is highly uncertain at the moment.

Stay tuned to later forecasts/updates in coming days.  Winter weather headlines may be needed for portions of the Northland during the early-middle part of this coming week.

Note:  The Lezak Recurring Cycle or LRC targeted Today’s date (November 30) for a significant snowfall.  M1 and M2 7.2″ of snow.  M3 14.4″ of snow.  Mean:  9.6″.  Remember plus/minus a day, so perhaps December 3 would be the day should the current forecast models verify.

Tim

November 29, 2013 – Weather Report. Duluth dipped below 0 This AM – 1st time since last March; Latest on next week’s snow/mixed precip potential.

/Issued 4:44 PM CST, Friday, November 29, 2013/

*7-day precipitation forecast per Weather Prediction Center valid through December 6, 2013. Much of Minnesota is in 0.50-.0.75″ amounts which could result in 4-7″+ of snow (if precip stays as snow) next week.


















Low temperature report for November 29, 2013
Source:  National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota

Duluth, MN:  -3F
International Falls, MN:  -4F
Hibbing, MN:  -5F
Hayward, WI:  -6F
Ely, MN:  -8F
Orr, MN:  -6F
Cook, MN:  -6F
Bigfork, MN:  -4F
Grand Rapids, MN:  -4F
Longville, MN:  -2F
Cloquet, MN:  -4F
Phillips, WI:  -1F
Duluth, MN (NWS)  -2F
3 E of Wright, MN:  -5F
Northome, MN:  -6F
Embarrass, MN:  -8F
4 E of Island Lake, MN:  -6F
3 E of Orr, MN:  -7F
Winter, WI:  -5F

Note:  Low temperature of -3 degrees at the Duluth Airport This Morning November 29 is the first time with a subzero low temperature since March 21 (-2 degrees)

Snowfall report for November 27-28, 2013
Source:  National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota

12 N of Grand Rapids, MN:  7.0″
Silver Bay, MN:  6.0″
2 N of Illgen City, MN:  5.6″
Northome, MN:  4.3″
1 WSW of Saxon, WI:  4.0″
Upson, WI:  3.5″
6 SSW of Grand Rapids, MN:  3.0″
3 N of Butternut, WI:  3.0″
Wrenshall, MN:  3.0″
Duluth, MN:  3.0″
Island Lake, MN:  2.7″
Togo, MN:  2.0″
Two Harbors, MN:  1.8″
International Falls, MN:  1.8″
Embarrass, MN:  1.0″

*NWS Duluth, MN snowfall total map from 27NOVEMBER-28NOVEMBER, 2013.






















Snowfall report for November 29, 2013
Source:  National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota

Gile, WI:  6.5″ fell Overnight.  Snow depth of 13-15″
Hurley, WI:  5.0″
Cornucopia, WI:  5.0″
3 E of Sand Bay, WI:  6.4″.  Snow depth of 10.5″

Note:  Duluth, Minnesota finally picked up it’s 1st one inch snowfall total on November 27 with 2.7″ of snow.  This is the 1st 1.0″ or greater snow total since April 22 (8.2″)

Today’s Weather Summary for NE Minnesota and NW Wisconsin

A warm air advection pattern developed across much of the Upper Midwest Today as a strong area of high pressure averaging 1040mb moves over the Eastern Great Lakes while low pressure stretching from the Northern Plains to Manitoba induces a southerly flow across the Northland Today.  Skies ranged from mostly sunny to mostly cloudy and there’s been some snow showers and flurries at times mainly along the North Shore of Lake Superior.  High temperatures were in the upper teens to upper 20s.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Short Term Forecast – Confidence:  High.

Tonight (November 29)

Partly to mostly cloudy skies will be found in our area with snow showers and flurries affecting mainly the far Northern portion of Minnesota and into the Arrowhead…Snowfall accumulations in these areas could reach 1″.  Looks mainly dry elsewhere, but patchy light freezing drizzle could develop during the night.  Lows will be in the teens and 20s with south, southeast, or southwest winds at 5 to 15 mph.

Saturday and Saturday Night (November 30)

November 2013 ends on a fairly quiet note with temperatures pretty close to average. Partly to mostly cloudy skies are forecast with a few flurries/snow showers possible mainly over the Arrowhead of Minnesota and over parts of Northern Wisconsin.  Highs will be in the 20s and 30s with lows in the teens and 20s.  North or northeast winds are expected at 5 to 15 mph.

Extended Forecast – Confidence:  Medium.

Sunday through Tuesday (December 1-3)

High pressure will setup to our north through this period which will result in an easterly low level flow…East wind coming off Lake Superior could lead to some lake effect snow showers at times from Sunday-Tuesday along the North Shore of Lake Superior.  Low pressure develops to our west/southwest through this period along with an upper trough.  This system could produce some overrunning snow or mixed precipitation at times across the Northland especially from Sunday Night through Tuesday.  High temperatures will be in the 20s and 30s through this period with lows Sunday Night and Monday Night mainly in the 20s.

Long Range Forecast – Confidence:  Medium.

(December 4-9)

Some snow or mixed precipitation could linger next Wednesday/Thursday (4th-5th) as an upper level trough and area of low pressure pass through the Upper Midwest and Western Great Lakes.  Right now this doesn’t look like a major winter storm for the Northland, but a few to several inches of snow could accumulate in parts of our area.  Stay tuned.

The rest of this period outside of the South Shore of Lake Superior looks mainly dry. Speaking of the South Shore, that area could see lake effect snow at times starting on the 5th and lingering through the 9th.

Below average temperatures are expected during this period.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR

.Tonight…  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Not as cold as last night.  Low 17 to 22.  Wind south at 5 to 15 mph.

.Saturday…  Partly to mostly cloudy.  High 29 to 34.  Wind northwest at 10 to 15 mph.

.Saturday Night…  Partly cloudy.  Low 15 to 20.  Wind north to northeast at 5 to 15 mph.

.Sunday…  Partly sunny.  Flurries possible.  High 26 to 31.

.Sunday Night…  Mostly cloudy.  Flurries possible.  Low 20 to 25.

.Monday…  Mostly cloudy.  Light snow or flurries possible.  High 28 to 33.

.Monday Night…  Mostly cloudy.  Light snow or flurries possible.  Low 20 to 25.

.Tuesday…  Mostly cloudy.  Light snow or flurries possible.  High 27 to 32.

Normal temperatures for Tomorrow

High:  28
Low:   14

Sunrise Saturday:  7:32 AM CST
Sunset Saturday:   4:22 PM CST

Tim


8 PM Radar/Weather Update. 2-5" of snow has fallen over parts of the Northland.

/Issued 8:37 PM CST, Wednesday, November 27, 2013/

…Quick weather update…

Preliminary snowfall amounts thru 7 PM, November 27, 2013
Source:  National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota

12 N of Grand Rapids, MN (Itasca County)  5.0″
2 S of Northome, MN (Itasca County)  4.0″
10 SSE of Floowood, MN (St. Louis County)  4.0″

6 NNE of Bovey, MN (Itasca County)  4.0″
Holyoke, MN (Carlton County)  3.7″
8 WSW of Mahtowa (Carlton County)  3.0″

Little Marais, MN (Cook County)  3.0″
1 W of Scanlon, MN (Carlton County)  2.5″
International Falls, MN (Koochiching County)  1.0″

Note:  Official NWS Duluth total thru 8:30 PM:  2.4″

-Radar snapshot from 8:38 PM CST This Evening.  Note the darker green cores that are scattered along the North Shore of Lake Superior as SE winds coming off the lake lead to heavier snow showers.

















-Upper Midwest radar loop ending at 8:15 PM CST This Evening.  Source, intellicast.com

















-Additional light snow and flurries should continue to fall during the Overnight hours and into Thursday Morning with perhaps another 1″ of accumulation in Duluth and Superior. Heavier amounts are expected along the North Shore of Lake Superior where bursts of lake effect snow will continue into Thursday.

-Use extreme caution if you have travel plans Tonight and Tomorrow.  Roads will be snow covered and slippery.  There have been numerous accidents in Duluth This Evening due to the snow and slick roads.

Tim






November 27, 2013 – Weather Report. Latest on Tonight’s snow event. Stay safe everyone.

/Issued 4:11 PM CST, Wednesday, November 27, 2013/

-This system is a potent little bugger.  Note:  Snowfall totals will vary quite a bit across the Northland with 2 areas of heavier snowfall amounts.  One along the North Shore of Lake Superior thanks to southeasterly winds. The other area for heavier totals will be roughly from Grand Rapids and Hibbing toward to the Twin Ports, south along I35 to Moose Lake, and into portions of Northwest Wisconsin…Most spots in that 2-5″ range should see on average of 2-3″, but isolated 4-5″ amounts are likely.

-National Weather Service hazards map.

Purple=Winter Weather Advisory.














-Upper Midwest radar loop ending at 5 PM CST.  Source:  intellicast.com.

Blue=snow, darker blue indicates moderate to heavy snowfall.
















Today’s Weather Summary for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

A broad low pressure trough extended from Central Manitoba to Central South Dakota late This Afternoon with a warm advection pattern occurring east of this system.  Snow has broken out over much of Northern and Northeast Minnesota and in parts of Northwest Wisconsin This Afternoon as this system heads east. There’s also been some lake enhanced snow along the North Shore of Lake Superior as winds swung around to the SE This Afternoon.  High temperatures Today were in the mid teens to low 20s with south or southeast winds at 5 to 15 mph.

Snowfall report for November 26, 2013
Source:  National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota

Gile, WI (Iron County)  12.5″
Hurley, WI (Iron County)  8.0″
Mellen, WI (Ashland County)  6.5″
Glidden, WI (Ashland County)  6.0″
2 NW of Mellen, WI (Ashland County)  4.8″
Iron River, WI (Bayfield County)  2.0″

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Short Term Forecast – Confidence:  High.

Tonight (November 27)

Occasional snow will occur Tonight over Northern/Eastern Minnesota into Northwest Wisconsin as a weak low pressure system tracks into the Upper Midwest.  Although this is a fairly weak system, there’s decent FGEN forcing taking place This Evening along with strong warm air advection which is leading to a narrow band of more moderate snowfall generally along a Grand Rapids – Duluth – Moose Lake line and points southeast from there.  By late Tonight expect some additional light snow and flurries but the bulk of the snow should fall before Midnight the way it looks now.

Lows Tonight under mostly cloudy skies will be in the teens and 20s with south or east winds at 5 to 15 mph.

Thanksgiving Day/Night (November 28)

Low pressure exits off to our SE while a trough extends NW of the low into Northeast Minnesota.  What this all means is that some snow should continue Tomorrow generally over the Arrowhead of Minnesota while flurries and snow showers ending during the early Morning hours over the remainder of the Northland.  Partly to mostly cloudy skies are forecast this period with highs in the teens and 20s with lows in the single digits and teens.  Winds will be out of the north on Thursday and from the north or southeast Thursday Night.  Wind speeds will range from 5 to 15 mph.

Extended Forecast – Confidence:  High.

Friday through Sunday (November 29-December 1)

Flurries or snow showers are possible along the North and South Shore of Lake Superior on Friday.  A weak system stays north of the border Friday Night/Saturday and could bring a little bit of light snow or flurries to parts of the Northland.  Looks mainly dry on Sunday.  Highs will be in the 20s on Friday.  20s to low 30s on Saturday and Sunday.  Lows Friday Night and Saturday Night will be in the teens.

Long Range Forecast – Confidence:  Medium.

(December 2-7)

Near to below average temperatures are expected through this period.  Still looks like the pattern may turn more active next week as a deepening trough edges east out of the Western U.S. while arctic air seeps down into the Northwest U.S., Rockies, and Northern Plains.  Snow or a mixture of precipitation could occur at times across NE Minnesota and NW Wisconsin through this whole period but whether or not any of the precip is significant or not remains to be seen.  There is potential though for a decent snow event at some point next week.  Stay tuned.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR

*WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY* until 10 PM CST Tonight

.Tonight…  Occasional snow.  Total accumulations of 2-3″.  Low 15 to 20.  Wind southeast at 5 to 15 mph.

.Thanksgiving Day…  Snow showers or flurries possible during the Morning.  Considerable cloudiness.  High 20 to 25.  Wind north at 10 to 15 mph.

.Thursday Night…  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 5 to 10.  Wind north around 10 mph.

.Friday…  Partly sunny.  High 23 to 28.

.Friday Night…  Mostly cloudy.  Flurries possible.  Low 15 to 20.

.Saturday…  Partly sunny.  High 25 to 30.

.Saturday Night…  Partly cloudy.  Low 10 to 15.

.Sunday…  Partly sunny.  High 25 to 30.

Normal temperatures for Tomorrow

High:  29
Low:   15

Sunrise Thursday:  7:30 AM CST
Sunset Thursday:   4:24 PM CST

Tim

November 26, 2013 – Weather Report. Significant amounts of snow for parts of the South Shore and North Shore of Lake Superior; Little bit of snow elsewhere Wed PM-Thu AM.

/Issued 4:09 PM CST, Tuesday, November 26, 2013/

*Future radar for 6 PM Tonight per 12z experimental WRF model out of the National Weather Service in Duluth, Minnesota.

















*And for 6 AM CST Wednesday.  Note how the bands change between the top image and the bottom one.  Wind changes direction affects the orientation of the lake snow bands. Pretty interesting.


















*Here’s my lake effect snow accumulation forecast valid thru Wednesday.  Note:  Be sure to slow down and use extreme caution if you have travel plans along the South Shore of Lake Superior Tonight and on Wednesday as roads will be snow covered and hazardous. Visibilities will drop to fractions of a mile at times in the heavier snow showers.  North winds gusting to 25 mph will also cause areas of blowing and drifting snow.



















Today’s Weather Summary for NE Minnesota and NW Wisconsin

Another shot of unseasonably cold air moved into the Northland Today with high pressure of 1034mb covering the Northern Plains and low pressure over Eastern Ontario which combined with a north/northwest flow is helping to bring down another lobe of very cold air for this time of year.  Highs Today were in the teens to around 20 degrees which is 10 to around 20 degrees colder than average for Today’s date.  Partly to mostly cloudy skies were common along with some Morning flurries and snow showers.  Lake effect snow has occurred at times along the South Shore of Lake Superior Today with 850mb temps down to around -18C while water temps hover around 40F so there’s plenty of instability in place to get lake effect snow to develop.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Short Term Forecast – Confidence:  High.

Tonight (November 26)

Partly to mostly cloudy skies are expected Tonight with lows in the single digits below to around 10 above zero.  Winds will be out of the north/northwest at 10 to 20 mph.

Wednesday and Wednesday Night (November 27)

Low pressure approaches from the northwest during this period.  Some light snow should develop across the Northland during the Afternoon-Evening hours and then continuing through Wednesday Night.  Highs Tomorrow will be in the teens and 20s with lows in the teens to around 20.  Winds will be out of the south or east at 10 to 15 mph.

*Here’s my snowfall forecast for the little event that moves in Wednesday PM and lingers into Thursday AM.  Note:  Heavier snowfall amounts are expected along the North Shore of Lake Superior where 4″+ of snow could accumulate.


















Extended Forecast – Confidence:  High.

Thursday through Saturday (November 28-30)

Light snow or flurries could continue over parts of the Northland on Thanksgiving Day, although most of the snow should be confined to the Morning hours the way it looks now. Otherwise will see partly sunny to overcast skies on Turkey Day 2013 with highs in the 20s with lows in the single digits and teens.

Friday looks mainly dry at the moment with highs in the 20s with lows in the teens.  Another system approaches from the NW on Saturday which could lead to a little bit of light snow over Northern Minnesota.  Highs on Saturday will be in the 20s and 30s.

Long Range Forecast – Confidence:  Medium.

(December 1-6)

Near to below average temperatures are forecast during this period.  The overall pattern could turn more active next week with potential snow event/s affecting portions of the Upper Midwest/Western Great Lakes.  Stay tuned!

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR

.Tonight…  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 5 to 10.  Wind north to northwest at 10 to 20 mph. Wind chills from 5 below to 15 below zero.

.Wednesday…  Increasing cloudiness.  High 17 to 22.  Wind southeast at 10 to 15 mph.

.Wednesday Night…  Light snow and flurries.  Temperatures holding nearly steady between 17-22 degrees.  Wind south to southeast at 5 to 15 mph.

.Thanksgiving Day…  Snow showers or flurries possible mainly during the Morning.  Total snowfall accumulations of 1″ or less.  Partly sunny.  High 20 to 25.

.Thursday Night…  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 8 to 13.

.Friday…  Partly sunny.  High 23 to 28.

.Friday Night…  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 15 to 20.

.Saturday…  Mostly cloudy.  High 25 to 30.

Normal temperatures for Today

High:  30
Low:   16

Sunrise Wednesday:  7:28 AM CST
Sunset Wednesday:   4:24 PM CST

Tim