/Issued 4:08 PM CDT, Friday, November 1, 2013/
*Take the map below with a grain of salt. Several days away and computer models will likely change, but I figured I would give everyone a heads up. Bottom line, monitor later forecasts for next Tuesday/Wednesday, November 5-6.
Map source: TwisterData.com – 12z GFS snowfall accumulation forecast.
Today’s Weather Summary for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin
A powerful low of 970mb has moved into North Central Quebec late This Afternoon. Northwest flow is occurring behind this storm across the Upper Midwest Today with an upper level disturbance dropping southeast through Eastern South Dakota and Southwest Minnesota Today. That disturbance is producing a few rain showers This Afternoon in Southwest Minnesota. Here in the Northland we saw another day of clouds, although there has been at least a little bit of sun occurring in Western/Southern parts of the area Today. There’s also been some patchy fog and light drizzle/brief rain showers in Northeast Minnesota and along the South Shore of Lake Superior in Northwest Wisconsin. High temperatures Today were in the mid 30s to mid 40s with northwest winds at 5 to around 20 mph.
*October 2013 climate summaries for select cities in Minnesota*
Source: National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota
Average temperature: 41.4 degrees
Departure: +0.3 degrees
Total precipitation: 2.07″
Total snowfall: 1.6″
Average temperature: 49.1 degrees
Departure: +0.2 degrees
Total precipitation: 3.00″
Total snowfall: Trace
Average temperature: 44.9 degrees
Departure: -0.8 degrees
Total precipitation: 4.34″
Total snowfall: 0.8″
Average temperature: 45.0 degrees
Departure: +1.8 degrees
Total precipitation: 3.93″
Total snowfall: 0.3″
November climate averages/astronomical data for Duluth, Minnesota
Temperature: 28.8 degrees
Sunrise on the 1st: 7:51 AM
Sunrise on the 30th: 7:32 AM
Sunset on the 1st: 5:52 PM
Sunset on the 30th: 4:22 PM
Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin
Short Term Forecast – Confidence: High.
Tonight (November 1)
Mostly cloudy skies are expected Tonight with scattered light showers and drizzle possible. Some snow could mix in as well, especially in Western/Northern parts of the area. Lows Tonight will be in the 20s and 30s with winds from the northwest at 5 to 15 mph.
Saturday and Saturday Night (November 2)
A cold front will stall out and weaken over Northern Minnesota during this period. Some rain or snow showers are possible in far Northeast Minnesota and in far Northern Wisconsin with snowfall amounts of a dusting to 1″ possible mainly over the Arrowhead of Minnesota. Partly to mostly cloudy skies are forecast this period with highs in the 30s and 40s with lows in the 20s and 30s. Winds out of the northwest Tomorrow will turn southeast Tomorrow Night at 10 to 15 mph.
*Total precipitation forecast from the 18z Hi-Res NAM/WRF model. Light amounts of precipitation is expected Tonight and Tomorrow in far NE Minnesota and Northern Wisconsin. (Source, e-WALL PSU website)
Extended Forecast – Confidence: High.
Sunday through Tuesday (November 3-5)
Still expecting to see a decent amount of sunshine over the Northland on Sunday with highs in the 40s and 50s. Low pressure and an upper trough affects the Upper Midwest on Monday and Tuesday bringing with it the potential for some rain on Monday and rain or snow come Tuesday Night.
High temperatures on Monday will be in the 40s and 50s. Highs on Tuesday will be in the 30s and 40s. Lows Sunday Night will mainly be in the 40s. Lows Monday Night will be in the 20s and 30s with a few 40s in Northern Wisconsin.
Long Range Forecast – Confidence: Medium.
The middle part of next week has potential to be wintry/rainy over the Upper Midwest as low pressure lifts northeast out of the Central Plains and into the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes. Note: Differences do exist in terms of strength and the track this low takes which is typical for a storm that is 4-5 days away. 12z GFS would be a snowy one in West Central and Northern Minnesota with several inches of snow possible in that solution. European – 12z run is weaker and shows lighter rain/snow amounts and also has the system farther east vs. the GFS. Stay tuned!
Another system could affect the region during the 9th-11th time frame with possible rain or snow. Near average temperatures are forecast through this period.
5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR
.Tonight… Considerable cloudiness. Patchy drizzle or light rain showers at times. Low 28 to 33. Wind northwest at 10 to 20 mph.
.Saturday… Considerable cloudiness. High 37 to 42. Wind northwest at 10 to 20 mph.
.Saturday Night… Partly cloudy. Low 25 to 30. Wind becoming southeast at 5 to 15 mph.
.Sunday… Partly cloudy. High 44 to 49.
.Sunday Night… Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 38 to 43.
.Monday… Mostly cloudy. Rain showers possible. High 43 to 48.
.Monday Night… Mostly cloudy. Rain showers possible. Low 35 to 40.
.Tuesday… Mostly cloudy. High 40 to 45.
Normal temperatures for Today
Sunrise Tomorrow: 7:53 AM CDT
Sunset Tomorrow: 5:51 PM CDT