/Issued 3:43 PM CDT, Saturday, November 2, 2013/
*Models continue to show a system that could bring some accumulating snow and some rain to portions of the Upper Midwest and Western Great Lakes region on Tuesday and Wednesday (November 5-6) Best advice I can give you is to stay tuned to later updates/forecasts on this potential snow/rain event that could hit us in a few days.
*Map below is the 12z GFS snowfall accumulation forecast valid for 6 AM CST Wednesday, November 6. Remember 24 hours ago the GFS had the snow axis more in Western/Northern Minnesota. Today’s run has it farther south/east and isn’t as heavy as before.
*Models will continue to flip flop during the next 1-2 days.
Today’s Weather Summary for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin
A large area of high pressure averaging 1027mb was smack dab over the Central-Southern Plains Today while a weak cold front was sitting north/east of the Northland. Northwest flow aloft 24 hours ago has transitioned to more of a westerly flow Today, this will soon become southwesterly as a new trough takes shape to our west. The Arrowhead of Minnesota and Northern Wisconsin continued to have plenty of clouds Today with some snow and rain showers occurring at times in those areas. The rest of the Northland saw a mixture of sun and clouds Today. High temperatures were in the 30s and 40s with northwest or nearly calm winds.
Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin
Short Term Forecast – Confidence: High.
Tonight (November 2)
Partly to mostly cloudy skies will be common Tonight. A few snow or rain showers are possible early in far Northeast Minnesota and along the South Shore of Lake Superior. Lows will be in the 20s and 30s. Winds will become southeasterly at 5 to 15 mph.
Sunday and Sunday Night (November 3)
A warm advection pattern will become established during this period with low pressure to our northwest and a cold front approaching from the west. A very stout southerly low level jet of 40-60+ knots locks in Tomorrow and Tomorrow Night which will result in milder temperatures over the area. Highs will be in the 40s and 50s with lows in the 30s and 40s. South or southeast winds are expected at 10 to 25 mph with higher gusts possible.
Extended Forecast – Confidence: Medium.
Monday through Wednesday (November 4-6)
Some rain will be possible on Monday as a cold front moves through the region. Note: At the moment it looks like most of the area could pick up a tenth to quarter inch of rain on Monday.
Computer models disagree then for Tuesday and Wednesday as low pressure heads northeast out of the Southern/Central Plains. The exact track of this low and the strength is unknown and this will play a role in where the heaviest area of precipitation will setup.
NAM is furthest south/east and keeps the heavier precip south of the Northland with much lighter amounts of precipitation extending into Northwestern Wisconsin.
GFS is sorta similar to the NAM although the GFS is slightly wetter in Northern Wisconsin/far Eastern Minnesota.
CANADIAN and EUROPEAN solutions are both on the wet side and would favor a more significant snow/rain event over most of NE Minnesota and NW Wisconsin.
Stay tuned to later forecasts/updates in coming days and just be aware that there could be some snow/rain over parts of the Northland starting late Tuesday Afternoon and lingering into Wednesday.
High temperatures on Monday will be in the 40s and 50s with lows in the 20s and 30s. Highs on Tuesday and Wednesday will be in the 30s and 40s with lows Tuesday Night in the 20s and 30s.
*Forecast map valid for Wednesday AM, November 6, 2013. Low pressure stretching from Southeast Iowa to Central Wisconsin with cold air on the west/northwest side of the low which would support some snow or a rain/snow mixture. (Source, Weather Prediction Center)
Long Range Forecast – Confidence: Low.
A new low pressure system could affect the Upper Midwest between the 8th-11th with possible rain or snow. Huge differences at the moment in regards to timing and placement of this system, thus the low confidence during this part of the forecast. Near to below average temperatures are expected through this period.
*12z ECMWF shows an area of low pressure over Eastern Minnesota, or between Duluth and the Twin Cities Saturday AM, November 9. This solution would be a snowy one for most of the Northland.
*12z GFS shows an area of low pressure way back in Eastern Montana Saturday AM, November 9. In other words these 2 models couldn’t be further apart. Regardless, next weekend looks like another time frame to keep an eye on.
Both maps via instantweathermaps website.
5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR
.Tonight… Partly cloudy. Low 26 to 31. Wind becoming southeast at 5 to 15 mph.
.Sunday… Partly cloudy. High 44 to 49. Wind southeast at 10 to 20 mph.
.Sunday Night… Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 38 to 43. Wind southeast at 10 to 20 mph.
.Monday… Showers developing. Mostly cloudy. High 43 to 48.
.Monday Night… Showers possible early. Mostly cloudy. Low 30 to 35.
.Tuesday… Partly sunny. High 40 to 45.
.Tuesday Night… Mostly cloudy. Rain or snow possible. Low 30 to 33.
.Wednesday… Mostly cloudy. Rain or snow possible. High 33 to 37.
Normal temperatures for Today
Sunrise Sunday: 6:54 AM CST
Sunset Sunday: 4:49 PM CST