/Issued 3:17 PM CST, Monday, November 4, 2013/
*NWS Duluth hazards map.
Purple outline area=Winter Weather Advisory.
Douglas…Bayfield…Ashland…Iron…Burnett…Washburn…Sawyer…and Price Counties in Northwest Wisconsin are in a winter weather advisory from Tuesday Evening through Wednesday Morning. Use extreme caution if you have travel plans Tuesday Night and Wednesday. Be prepared for snow/slush covered and slippery roads. Visibilities could be reduced to a mile or less at times due to the snow.
*Not making any changes at the moment to my snowfall map that I made around Noon Today. Highest amounts still look to be in Southern/Eastern portions of Northwest Wisconsin (2-5″) Tapering to around 1″ or so from Solon Springs toward Mellen. Note: I may have to tweak this map a bit sometime Tomorrow Morning, but I don’t think there’ll be any drastic changes to it.
Temperature and precipitation report for Duluth, Minnesota (Airport location)
October 27-November 2, 2013
High temperatures:
10/27: 49F/3 degrees above normal
10/28: 36F/10 degrees below normal
10/29: 36F/9 degrees below normal
10/30: 44F/1 degree below normal
10/31: 46F/2 degrees above normal
11/1: 40F/4 degrees below normal
11/2: 44F/1 degree above normal
Low temperatures:
10/27: 29F/2 degrees below normal
10/28: 21F/10 degrees below normal
10/29: 21F/9 degrees below normal
10/30: 35F/5 degrees above normal
10/31: 40F/10 degrees above normal
11/1: 35F/6 degrees above normal
11/2: 29F/Normal
Total precipitation: 0.20″
Average: 0.53″
Departure: -0.33″
*Last week’s temperature departure map. (Source, Midwest Regional Climate Center)
*Last week’s precipitation departure map. (Source, Midwest Regional Climate Center)
Weather Tidbits:
*32 days with snow (0.1″ or greater) is what the LRC is calling for this winter at Duluth, Minnesota. Last winter the LRC’s forecast was for 38 days with snow; Actual total was 41 days. Note: Additional data is going into the LRC and the Algorithm won’t lock in until November 17, so the number of days with snow could climb before the 17th of the month.
*27 confirmed tornadoes in the U.S. last Thursday (Halloween) This number could climb! 7 states were affected, stretching from Texas to Ohio. Most of the tornadoes were rated EF-0 to EF-1 with an EF-2 tornado reported near Baker, Missouri. Also the 27 tornadoes on Halloween is a new record for most confirmed tornadoes ever on any Halloween. (Source, The Weather Channel)
*Last Thursday/Friday’s storm “bombed” out as the pressure fell 27mb in a span of 24 hours. The Morning of October 31 the pressure was at 999mb, by the Morning of November 1 the pressure had dropped to 972mb. (Source, The Weather Channel)
*Storm reports map from last Thursday and Friday, October 31-November 1, 2013. (Source, TWC)
Today’s Weather Summary for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin
An upper level disturbance and cold front moved into the Upper Midwest Today. This system brought widespread rain to the Northland with amounts generally in the 0.10-0.25″ range with isolated higher amounts. Overcast skies were common Today with high temperatures in the upper 30s to mid 40s. Winds were out of the south or southwest at 5 to 15 mph with higher gusts.
Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin
Short Term Forecast – Confidence: High.
Tonight (November 4)
Rain will come to an end from west-east This Evening as a cold front and upper level disturbance exit the region. Partly to mostly cloudy skies are forecast Tonight with dry conditions Overnight. Lows will be in the 20s and 30s with southwest or west winds at 10 to 20 mph.
Tuesday and Tuesday Night (November 5)
Partly to mostly cloudy skies can be expected Tomorrow with no precipitation expected during the day. Highs will be in the 30s and 40s with winds out of the southwest at 5 to 15 mph.
Precipitation will move into Northwest Wisconsin and could also affect far Eastern Minnesota Tuesday Evening through the Overnight hours. Precip could begin as rain but evaporative cooling processes should result in any rain going over to snow. There could be a narrow band of moderate-heavy snowfall for a couple of hours Tuesday Night especially around the Hayward Lakes area.
Note: At the moment it looks like the bulk of the snow will remain along and east of a line from Hinckley to Ashland with the corridor of heaviest snow expected to stretch from around Shell Lake and Hayward to Glidden and Mercer, south to Park Falls and Phillips.
Lows Tomorrow Night will be in the 20s and 30s. Winds will be out of the west or north at 10 to 20 mph.
*Water vapor satellite image from 3:30 PM November 4, 2013. Snow maker for parts of the Upper Midwest is currently over the Southwestern U.S. late This Afternoon, and this bundle of energy is expected to track northeast through Wednesday.
Extended Forecast – Confidence: Medium to high.
Wednesday through Friday (November 6-8)
Low pressure which lifts northeast out of the Southern Plains on Tuesday will reach the Eastern Great Lakes region by Wednesday Morning. Snow or flurries could linger into Wednesday Morning across Northwest Wisconsin. Dry weather is then expected area-wide from Wednesday Afternoon into Thursday. A new weather system is expected to move out of the Northern Rockies and Northern Plains on Friday with rain or snow spreading into the Northland either Friday Afternoon or Friday Night (More details on that below) High temperatures from Wednesday through Friday will be in the 30s to lower 40s. Lows Wednesday Night and Thursday Night will be in the 20s to lower 30s with a few teens possible as well.
*There’s another system to keep an eye on which is forecast to move into the Upper Midwest sometime on Friday. Temperatures look kinda marginal at the moment for an all snow event here in the Northland, looks more like a rain/snow setup with some accumulation of snow possible over some parts of the area. Stay tuned. (Source, 18z NAM/WRF model via dupage site)
Long Range Forecast – Confidence: Medium to high.
(November 9-14)
Snow or rain could linger across the area on Saturday (9th) as low pressure exits to our east. Another system could take aim at the Upper Midwest sometime during the 11th-13th time frame…Rain or snow is possible should that storm take a favorable track to bring precipitation to the Northland. Near to below average temperatures are forecast through this period.
5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR
.Tonight… Light rain ending before 6 PM. Mostly cloudy with some clearing possible during the night. Low 25 to 30. Wind southwest at 10 to 15 mph.
.Tuesday… Partly to mostly cloudy. High 38 to 43. Wind southwest at 10 to 15 mph.
.Tuesday Night… Mostly cloudy. Low 30 to 35. Wind west to northwest at 10 to 15 mph.
.Wednesday… Partly sunny. High 36 to 41.
.Wednesday Night… Partly cloudy. Low 23 to 28.
.Thursday… Partly sunny. High 35 to 40.
.Thursday Night… Partly cloudy. Low 20 to 25.
.Friday… Mostly cloudy. Rain or snow possible late. High 35 to 40.
Normal temperatures for Today
High: 42
Low: 28
Sunrise Tuesday: 6:57 AM CST
Sunset Tuesday: 4:47 PM CST
Tim
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