/Issued 3:16 PM CST, Monday, November 11, 2013/
*Plenty cold out there, eh? Here’s the basic setup from Today. Low pressure near Southern Hudson Bay Canada and a N/NW flow which is bringing down a lobe of very cold air. The good news is that the trough responsible in giving us this cold weather moves out by Wednesday. (Source, http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/)
Today’s Weather Summary for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin
Arctic high pressure averaging 1040mb was over Western North Dakota This Afternoon. A couple bands of clouds were evident over the Northland Today per visible satellite imagery, one covered Western/Northwest parts of the area, another one was over the Arrowhead, and the final one was over Ashland and Iron County in Northwest Wisconsin. In between these 3 bands of clouds was a good deal of sunshine which stretched from about International Falls – Hibbing – Duluth – Hayward and along the Highway 35 corridor in Minnesota. Some flurries and snow showers also occurred over parts of the area Today. High temperatures were only in the teens and 20s which is 10-20 degrees colder than normal for the 11th of November. Winds Today were out of the northwest at 10 to 20 mph with higher gusts and wind chills Today were in the single digits below to single digits above zero.
Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin
Short Term Forecast – Confidence: High.
Tonight through Tuesday Night (November 11-12)
High pressure will be in control of our weather through this period as it passes south/southeast of the Northland. Expect mainly dry weather with the exception to this being over Bayfield, Ashland, and Iron County where a few lake effect snow showers are possible Tonight. Lows Tonight will be in the single digits and teens with a few spots up north possibly dropping below zero. Highs Tomorrow will be in the 20s to lower 30s. Lows Tomorrow Night will be in the teens and 20s. Northwest winds Tonight will turn more west/southwest Tomorrow and Tomorrow Night. Wind speeds will be in the 10 to 20 mph. Note: Wind chills will be in the single digits below to single digits above zero Tonight and Tuesday Morning.
Extended Forecast – Confidence: High.
Wednesday through Friday (November 13-15)
Temperatures will warm a bit from mid to late week with mainly dry conditions on Wednesday giving way to potential snow showers and flurries over mainly Northern Minnesota from Thursday Night into Friday as a cold front passes through the Upper Midwest. High temperatures will be in the 30s to lower 40s on Wednesday and Thursday and mainly in the 30s on Friday. Lows Wednesday Night and Thursday Night will be in the 20s to lower 30s.
*6 PM 850mb temperature forecast for Today, 11NOVEMBER, 2013. Note how the cold colors disappear between This Evening and Wednesday Evening. (Source, http://weather.cod.edu/forecast/)
*6 PM 850mb temperature forecast for Wednesday, 13NOVEMBER, 2013. (Source, http://weather.cod.edu/forecast/)
Long Range Forecast – Confidence: Low to Medium.
There are some big differences showing up between the GFS and ECMWF during this period (See maps below) Little to no agreement between these models thus not much confidence in what type of weather we see here in the Northland after the 17th. Best guess at the moment is for temperatures to be fairly close to average during this period, and there could be some snow or rain during the 18th-20th.
*12z GFS surface map valid 6 AM Tuesday, November 19, 2013. (Source, http://www.instantweathermaps.com/)
*12z EUROPEAN surface map valid 6 AM Tuesday, November 19, 2013. (Source, http://www.instantweathermaps.com/)
5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR
.Tonight… Cold. Mostly clear. Low 6 to 11. Wind northwest at 10 to 15 mph.
.Tuesday… Mostly sunny. High 23 to 28. Wind west to southwest at 10 to 20 mph.
.Tuesday Night… Partly cloudy. Low 13 to 18. Wind southwest at 10 to 15 mph.
.Wednesday… Partly cloudy. High 32 to 37.
.Wednesday Night… Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 20 to 25.
.Thursday… Considerable cloudiness. High 35 to 40.
.Thursday Night… Mostly cloudy. Low 25 to 30.
.Friday… Mostly cloudy. High 35 to 40.
Normal temperatures for Today
Sunrise Tuesday: 7:08 AM CST
Sunset Tuesday: 4:38 PM CST