/Issued 3:21 PM CST, Wednesday, November 13, 2013/
*RAP model analysis from 18z (12 PM) Today. A rather large area of +6 to +12C temperatures at 850mb Today which led to an above average high temperature day across the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest. Source: http://weather.cod.edu/forecast/
Precipitation stats for Duluth, Minnesota (Airport location) thru November 13.
November total: 0.41″ which is 0.49″ below normal.
Since September 1: 5.60″ which is 2.26″ below normal.
Since January 1: 27.19″ which is 1.37″ below normal.
Snowfall stats for Duluth, Minnesota (Airport location) thru November 13.
November total: 1.1″ which is 2.8″ below normal.
Since September 1: 1.4″ which is 4.9″ below normal.
Since July 1: 1.4″ which is 4.9″ below normal.
Note: The average date for the first 1.0″ snowfall at Duluth, Minnesota (Airport location) is on November 6th. Lets take a look at past years to see when we received that first 1.0″ of snow. Notice 2004 and 2008 had to wait until early December while in 2006 and 2009 it came very early.
2000: November 7th (1.5″)
2001: October 25th (1.7″)
2002: October 18th (1.6″)
2003: October 27th (4.0″)
2004: December 2nd (4.9″)
2005: November 15th (3.1″)
2006: October 12th (2.3″)
2007: November 9th (1.5″)
2008: December 5th (1.1″)
2009: October 10th (1.0″)
2010: October 26th (3.4″)
2011: November 18th (1.0″)
2012: November 22nd (3.3″)
2013: Still waiting…
Today’s Weather Summary for NE Minnesota and NW Wisconsin
Temperatures warmed up considerably Today, in fact the daytime highs were quite a bit warmer than what I predicted 24-hours ago for Today. A strong southwest wind at 10 to 25 mph with higher gusts helped to mix down the warm temperatures which ranged from +8 to +12C up at 850mb (around 5,000 feet) result from this was for surface temperatures to climb well into the 40s over most of the Northland with even a few 50s around the Brainerd Lakes region and also in Ashland. Skies ranged from partly cloudy to sunny Today.
Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin
Short Term Forecast – Confidence: High.
Tonight (November 13)
A weak low and cold front will be moving through the area Tonight bringing with it partly to mostly cloudy skies. Lows will be in the 20s and 30s with winds out of the west at 10 to 15 mph with higher gusts.
Thursday and Thursday Night (November 14)
Another weak system will be affecting the Northland during this period, this one may actually bring a few snow or rain showers to mainly Northern Minnesota with dry weather expected elsewhere, except for a brief opportunity for some light rain over Southern portions of Northwest Wisconsin Tomorrow Morning. Highs will be in the 30s and 40s with lows in the 20s and 30s. Expect west or south winds at 10 to 15 mph.
Extended Forecast – Confidence: Medium.
Friday through Sunday (November 15-17)
Rain chances will increase on Saturday as a large upper level trough approaches from the Western U.S. Looks like will see 2 surface lows track NE out of the Central Plains this weekend. The 1st one is forecast to affect our area on Saturday with some rain/drizzle. The 2nd low could hit on Sunday, but the computer models continue to differ on the track/speed of that 2nd system so stay tuned to later updates. If that Sunday low takes a favorable track, then another round of rain would likely affect the Northland, and this 2nd system should have colder air to work with so the rain would most likely mix with and turn over to snow over some parts of the area from Sunday Afternoon into Sunday Night.
High temperatures will be in the 30s and 40s from Friday through Sunday with lows Friday Night and Saturday Night mainly in the 30s.
*Differences in storm track and speed continue to show up in the GFS and EUROPEAN computer models for Sunday/Monday, November 17-18.
-Image below is the 12z GFS model which has the low over Northeast Kansas Sunday Morning before moving rapidly northeast into Quebec by Monday Morning. Greatest chance to see the rain mix with or change to snow per this solution is highlighted in blue on the map.
-Image below is the 12z EUROPEAN model which has the low over Southern Nebraska Sunday Morning before lifting more slowly toward the northeast while ending up over Northeast Lake Superior/Eastern Ontario Monday Morning. Greatest chance to see the rain mix with or change to snow per this solution would be farther west than the GFS model and is highlighted in blue on the map.
Note: Right now this doesn’t look to be a major snow maker for the Northland, but a couple inches of snow is certainly possible depending on the storm track and the timing of the change over from rain to snow.
Source for both maps: http://www.instantweathermaps.com/
Long Range Forecast – Confidence: High.
Another round of very cold air is expected for the early – mid part of next week (18th-20th) with below average temperatures likely. Some warming is possible from the 21st-23rd. Might be some flurries or snow showers around the area on Monday (18th) otherwise this period looks pretty tranquil at the moment.
5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR
.Tonight… Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 28 to 33. Wind west at 10 to 15 mph with higher gusts This Evening.
.Thursday… Considerable cloudiness. High 40 to 45. Wind west at 10 to 15 mph.
.Thursday Night… Mostly cloudy. Low 28 to 33. Wind west at 5 to 15 mph.
.Friday… Partly to mostly cloudy. High 40 to 45.
.Friday Night… Mostly cloudy. Low 30 to 35.
.Saturday… Rain possible. High 38 to 43.
.Saturday Night… Mostly cloudy. Rain possible. Low 35 to 38.
.Sunday… Mostly cloudy. Rain possible. High 38 to 41.
Normal temperatures for Today
Sunrise Thursday: 7:11 AM CST
Sunset Thursday: 4:35 PM CST